Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Errol said:

I get a dividend from GDXJ. But that is the holding purchased before the US version was banned in the UK. 

I ghet a divvie from GDXJ but it's minute - less than 1% last time I think.  That said, it will of course have the possibility to be zero (if the small miners make no money) or huge (if gold goes to 10000USD and the small miners are coining it in).

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

12 hours ago, belfastchild said:

......Tempted to get rid of my shell holding, as Im up almost 120% on that and thats a lot of years of divis, even at the 8-9% Im getting from it due to the price I paid.

 

yeah i'm also tempted to sell, however i reckon the melt-UP is on the cards, AND if so shell will ROCKET... close to 30 quid?!

 

I see this scenario playing out...

 

during the melt-UP ...DB (he's sold his shel) will post about his dad MOANING & taking the piss out of him for selling too early  , meanwhile shell hits new all time highs 26...27...29 this is when us MEGA-TIGHT-WADS sell out, and buy back when shell collapses to a tenner!

 

the 60 quid a share price in the chart, is a stock split that occurred in June 1997, those that think its going back to the 60 quid a share, can dream, *BUT*... anything is possible in a parabolic stock market melt-UP!

 

 

 

 

The melt-UP MUST be on its way...cos this person has NOT mentioned it for a while!

 

 

[Loki]

Just sat waiting to go on site and wondering about "the bust". What will it look like? I don't mean financially or prepping supplies or anything, more the psychological side of it and literally what we will see day to day, sounds more dramatic than a continuing slow grind down 

[belfastchild]

5 hours ago, Jay said:

I think what he meant was that he could have made more money by investing than buying his house..I think he still lives in that house he bought in Omaha many decades ago..he bought as you say you need a place for shelter and to live in..

agree that peace of mind is a fantastic investment..

 

Almost 20 years ago I got ill, would be at least a year before I earned anything again. I didnt have a big mortgage but did have a business loan they wouldnt do a deal on. I was getting sickness benefit but  it only just covered the business loan. Mortgage people were good and allowed me to reduce payments to 2x interest only (so I was paying some of it off).
I spent a year housebound juggling things around on 0% credit cards, selling off my stuff on ebay and planning how this was never going to happen to me again.
I started the seeds then of passive income and decided to spend every single penny I had extra on overpaying the mortgage so at least if something like  that happened again Id have a roof over my head.

Peace of mind was the best investment I ever made.

[Calcutta]

Spent last night doing some thinking, Friday nights are 🔥🔥 in my house.

Looked at Telefonica, the parent company, is well of it's highs and the dividend isn't as big as Telefonica Brasil, but I wonder if it might provide a lot of the upside with less of the risk. Brazilians are temperamental.

JMHLY, listed in HK, the original Jardine Matheson of Opium Wars fame, now they run hotels, car dealerships and supermarkets. It's the supermarkets that interest me, ten years ago when I was last out that way all the supermarkets in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were owned by Jardines. There's a lot of risk with HK but while trying to think of a way to play Indonesia it seems logical to me that if they get richer they'll be using the supermarket more.

Serco. Price doesn't look too high and let's face it, whatever government we get they're not going to stop weaponising immigration so I might as well join the winning team for a while.

Aviva. The NHS is fucked, my work has a private medical scheme with these, is a big company, share price is about halfway between the highs and lows, 6% div, looks like a safe bet but I'm useless with financials and have no idea if they're up to their necks in debt or pensions.

And finally, HL show me two options, GJGB and GDGB, I figured GDGB would be different companies but the top 10 holdings look exactly the same. Does anyone know the difference?

Another week of this melt up and I'm getting my money back from RR and fucking British Airways. Time to write a proper shopping list and maybe not mortgage my children's futures on reckless gambling...

[Red Debt Redemption]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

yeah i'm also tempted to sell, however i reckon the melt-UP is on the cards, AND if so shell will ROCKET... close to 30 quid?!

 

I see this scenario playing out...

 

during the melt-UP ...DB (he's sold his shel) will post about his dad MOANING & taking the piss out of him for selling too early  , meanwhile shell hits new all time highs 26...27...29 this is when us MEGA-TIGHT-WADS sell out, and buy back when shell collapses to a tenner!

 

the 60 quid a share price in the chart, is a stock split that occurred in June 1997, those that think its going back to the 60 quid a share, can dream, *BUT*... anything is possible in a parabolic stock market melt-UP!

 

 

 

 

The melt-UP MUST be on its way...cos this person has NOT mentioned it for a while!

 

 

I did the same as DB and got out, can't see it doing much more. £6-£7 is a rocket? not even a 50% bagger, get a better gamble on Poly. 

 

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Just sat waiting to go on site and wondering about "the bust". What will it look like? I don't mean financially or prepping supplies or anything, more the psychological side of it and literally what we will see day to day, sounds more dramatic than a continuing slow grind down 

Assuming you mean the bust in the wider economic sense: I am expecting a lot of stuff from 1970s TV shows to reappear; so for example a widespread acceptance that Britain* is finished as a country, a shift from a personal economic progress mindset to one of hanging on, somebody somewhere will be counter-intuitively doing openly alright out of the situation and this will be seen as proof of moral decay (eg proto-oligarchs in early 1990s Russia, speculators in 1920s Germany, Aurthur Dailey in 1970s Britain), formerly well-off groups will see dramatically reduced living standards (fingers crossed for council/civil-service pensioners) and this will again be seen by many as evidence of all the above.

In the narrower financial market sense I expect a bigger longer duration run of what we saw in the March 2020 period. Shock, horror, panic of course. Also things that would never have been thought possible (eg oil going "negative" back then) and associated bizarre stories (eg the fellow who "bought" some, and was trying to work out if he could put it in his swimming pool as he HAD to take delivery). As above people will talk about the end of the world, nothing ever the same again etc. Tales of homeless ex millionaires etc will be prominent, but also of young men from wallstreetbets making six and seven figure sums from puts etc. Yet again this will tie into the theme of moral decline, or a world upside down.

(*all western countries' residents will think the same about their own country) 

[MrXxxx]

17 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

And finally, HL show me two options, GJGB and GDGB, I figured GDGB would be different companies but the top 10 holdings look exactly the same. Does anyone know the difference?

Here you go:

GDGB						GjGB
Holding Name	Ticker	Shares	Market Value	% of Net		Holding Name	Ticker	Shares	Market Value	% of Net
			(US$)	Assets					(US$)	Assets
Newmont Corp	NEM US	1,037,270	56,800,905	14.3
Barrick Gold Corp	GOLD US	2,283,150	53,174,564	13.39
Newcrest Mining Ltd	NCM AU	969,980	19,675,229	4.95
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd	AEM US	320,262	18,632,843	4.69
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd	AU US	639,838	15,240,941	3.84
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd	KL CN	426,006	16,313,366	4.11	45.28
Kinross Gold Corp	KGC US	1,932,106	12,017,699	3.03		Kinross Gold Corp	KGC US	2,091,252	13,007,587	6.22
Northern Star Resources Ltd	NST AU	1,137,317	10,704,892	2.69		Northern Star Resources Ltd	NST AU	1,268,203	11,936,845	5.7
Evolution Mining Ltd	EVN AU	2,619,346	10,242,165	2.58		Evolution Mining Ltd	EVN AU	3,193,402	12,486,839	5.97
Gold Fields Ltd	GFI US	1,273,448	9,321,639	2.35		Gold Fields Ltd	GFI US	1,311,913	9,603,203	4.59
B2gold Corp	BTG US	1,591,450	8,132,310	2.05		B2gold Corp	BTG US	1,561,650	7,980,032	3.81
Yamana Gold Inc	AUY US	1,460,905	7,333,743	1.85		Yamana Gold Inc	AUY US	1,889,430	9,484,939	4.53
Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd	SAR AU	1,694,931	5,373,024	1.35		Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd	SAR AU	1,839,596	5,831,620	2.79
Alamos Gold Inc	AGI US	601,285	4,485,586	1.13	62	Alamos Gold Inc	AGI US	571,890	4,266,299	2.04
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd	2899 HK	8,812,000	3,570,258	0.9
Centamin Plc	CEY LN	1,776,478	3,326,556	0.84		Centamin Plc	CEY LN	1,743,219	3,264,276	1.56
Ssr Mining Inc	SSRM US	189,392	3,401,480	0.86		Ssr Mining Inc	SSRM US	244,675	4,394,363	2.1
Centerra Gold Inc	CG CN	451,339	4,129,855	1.04		Centerra Gold Inc	CG CN	355,658	3,254,352	1.56
Alacer Gold Corp	ASR CN	453,036	2,628,450	0.66		Alacer Gold Corp	ASR CN	498,258	2,890,822	1.38
Endeavour Mining Corp	EDV CN	168,944	3,855,242	0.97		Endeavour Mining Corp	EDV CN	140,656	3,209,720	1.53
Regis Resources Ltd	RRL AU	780,982	2,759,322	0.69		Regis Resources Ltd	RRL AU	952,136	3,364,034	1.61
Iamgold Corp	IAG US	722,755	2,601,918	0.66		Iamgold Corp	IAG US	827,421	2,978,716	1.42
Pretium Resources Inc	PVG US	285,122	2,389,322	0.6		First Majestic Silver Corp	AG US	375,657	3,651,386	1.74
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd	HMY US	833,973	2,610,335	0.66		Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd	HMY US	1,066,177	3,337,134	1.59
St Barbara Ltd	SBM AU	1,080,524	2,263,427	0.57		St Barbara Ltd	SBM AU	1,325,935	2,777,502	1.33
Eldorado Gold Corp	EGO US	257,034	2,148,804	0.54		Eldorado Gold Corp	EGO US	331,694	2,772,962	1.32
Oceanagold Corp	OGC CN	956,391	1,904,295	0.48		Oceanagold Corp	OGC CN	952,704	1,896,953	0.91
Coeur Mining Inc	CDE US	374,356	1,969,113	0.5		Coeur Mining Inc	CDE US	372,118	1,957,341	0.94
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd	1818 HK	1,613,000	1,864,824	0.47		Cia De Minas Buenaventura Saa	BVN US	408,262	3,539,632	1.69
Silver Lake Resources Ltd	SLR AU	1,352,154	1,845,796	0.46		Silver Lake Resources Ltd	SLR AU	1,608,284	2,195,434	1.05
Torex Gold Resources Inc	TXG CN	131,219	1,637,118	0.41		Torex Gold Resources Inc	TXG CN	115,111	1,436,151	0.69
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd	WDO CN	212,064	1,641,541	0.41		Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd	WDO CN	255,392	1,976,933	0.94
Semafo Inc	SMF CN	514,017	1,652,122	0.42		Semafo Inc	SMF CN	527,317	1,694,870	0.81
Perseus Mining Ltd	PRU AU	1,795,079	1,435,159	0.36		Perseus Mining Ltd	PRU AU	2,188,489	1,749,689	0.84
Gold Road Resources Ltd	GOR AU	1,351,951	1,463,199	0.37		Gold Road Resources Ltd	GOR AU	1,546,316	1,673,558	0.8
Resolute Mining Ltd	RSG AU	1,647,586	1,248,213	0.31		Resolute Mining Ltd	RSG AU	1,545,834	1,171,126	0.56
Cia De Minas Buenaventura Saa	BVN US	389,907	3,380,494	0.85
				76.34						62.02
Hecla Mining Co	HL US	804,088	2,557,000	0.64		Hecla Mining Co	HL US	758,614	2,412,393	1.15
Highland Gold Mining Ltd	HGM LN	559,242	1,588,432	0.4		Highland Gold Mining Ltd	HGM LN	490,566	1,393,370	0.67
Dundee Precious Metals Inc	DPM CN	277,446	1,460,732	0.37		Dundee Precious Metals Inc	DPM CN	212,964	1,121,239	0.54
Silvercorp Metals Inc	SVM US	266,486	1,297,787	0.33		Silvercorp Metals Inc	SVM US	371,762	1,810,481	0.87
Teranga Gold Corp	TGZ CN	257,468	1,875,881	0.47		Teranga Gold Corp	TGZ CN	256,599	1,869,549	0.89
Equinox Gold Corp	EQX US	331,844	3,215,568	0.81		Equinox Gold Corp	EQX CN	344,071	3,340,769	1.6
Pan American Silver Corp	PAAS US	322,733	8,623,426	2.17		Pan American Silver Corp	PAAS US	417,124	11,145,553	5.33
First Majestic Silver Corp	AG US	322,453	3,134,243	0.79
				5.98						11.05
Other/Cash	--	--	443,989	0.11		Other/Cash	--	--	149,025	0.07
				0.11						0.07
Franco-Nevada Corp	FNV US	243,215	31,345,549	7.89
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp	WPM US	575,463	21,723,728	5.47
Royal Gold Inc	RGLD US	100,763	12,345,483	3.11
Sandstorm Gold Ltd	SAND US	269,699	2,200,744	0.55		Sandstorm Gold Ltd	SAND US	339,008	2,766,305	1.32
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd	OR US	242,198	2,271,817	0.57		Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd	OR US	194,422	1,823,678	0.87
						Great Bear Royalties Corp	1762020D CN	23,506	37,793	0.02
				17.59						2.21
						JUNIOR MINERS
	1.84				1.84	Sibanye Stillwater Ltd	SBSW US	1,039,062	8,800,855	4.21
	0.93				0.93	Novagold Resources Inc	NG US	449,877	4,071,387	1.95
	1.84					Fresnillo Plc	FRES LN	420,932	3,842,802	1.84
						Industrias Penoles Sab De Cv	PE&OLES* MF	281,540	2,761,962	1.32
						Pretium Resources Inc	PVG US	283,784	2,378,110	1.14
						Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk Pt	MDKA IJ	22,515,200	2,172,875	1.04
						Silvercrest Metals Inc	SILV US	213,167	1,869,475	0.89
						Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd	1818 HK	1,558,500	1,801,815	0.86
	0.33				0.33	Seabridge Gold Inc	SA US	110,277	1,711,499	0.82
						Mag Silver Corp	MAG US	134,469	1,667,416	0.8
						Ramelius Resources Ltd	RMS AU	1,317,179	1,503,742	0.72
						Fortuna Silver Mines Inc	FSM US	329,625	1,486,609	0.71
	0.35				0.35	New Gold Inc	NGD US	1,189,260	1,415,219	0.68
	0.65					Hochschild Mining Plc	HOC LN	579,054	1,366,903	0.65
						Lundin Gold Inc	LUG CN	163,512	1,353,506	0.65
						K92 Mining Inc	KNT CN	462,446	1,262,204	0.6
						Koza Altin Isletmeleri As	KOZAL TI	104,534	1,148,175	0.55
	0.23				0.23	Westgold Resources Ltd	WGX AU	703,573	1,066,055	0.51
						Osisko Mining Inc	OSK CN	405,571	1,040,430	0.5
						Great Bear Resources Ltd	GBR CN	99,306	799,069	0.38
						Novo Resources Corp	NVO CN	309,934	723,437	0.35
	0.13				0.13	Mcewen Mining Inc	MUX US	703,534	696,991	0.33
						Roxgold Inc	ROXG CN	645,227	625,523	0.3
						Endeavour Silver Corp	EXK US	303,482	616,068	0.29
						Alexco Resource Corp	AXU US	272,247	590,776	0.28
						Aurelia Metals Ltd	AMI AU	1,617,541	536,488	0.26
						Gran Colombia Gold Corp	GCM CN	106,992	529,794	0.25
						Gold Resource Corp	GORO US	130,586	523,650	0.25
	0.12				0.12	Premier Gold Mines Ltd	PG CN	352,428	520,383	0.25
						Argonaut Gold Inc	AR CN	328,105	445,319	0.21
						Americas Gold & Silver Corp	USAS US	172,358	422,277	0.2
						Royal Nickel Corp	RNX CN	1,069,292	414,655	0.2
						Dacian Gold Ltd	DCN AU	1,143,908	383,392	0.18
						Golden Star Resources Ltd	GSS US	137,519	380,928	0.18
						Great Panther Mining Ltd	GPL US	669,988	296,872	0.14
						China Gold International Resources Corp	CGG CN	552,517	206,017	0.1
						Gold Standard Ventures Corp	GSV US	291,697	202,321	0.1

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Assuming you mean the bust in the wider economic sense: I am expecting a lot of stuff from 1970s TV shows to reappear; so for example a widespread acceptance that Britain* is finished as a country, a shift from a personal economic progress mindset to one of hanging on, somebody somewhere will be counter-intuitively doing openly alright out of the situation and this will be seen as proof of moral decay (eg proto-oligarchs in early 1990s Russia, speculators in 1920s Germany, Aurthur Dailey in 1970s Britain), formerly well-off groups will see dramatically reduced living standards (fingers crossed for council/civil-service pensioners) and this will again be seen by many as evidence of all the above.

In the narrower financial market sense I expect a bigger longer duration run of what we saw in the March 2020 period. Shock, horror, panic of course. Also things that would never have been thought possible (eg oil going "negative" back then) and associated bizarre stories (eg the fellow who "bought" some, and was trying to work out if he could put it in his swimming pool as he HAD to take delivery). As above people will talk about the end of the world, nothing ever the same again etc. Tales of homeless ex millionaires etc will be prominent, but also of young men from wallstreetbets making six and seven figure sums from puts etc. Yet again this will tie into the theme of moral decline, or a world upside down.

(*all western countries' residents will think the same about their own country) 

I’m just looking forward to TV shows disappearing. The removal of Krusty and Phil will be a particular highlight.

Bit like that house doctor (pre 2008) who added £20k to a house by putting a jar of twigs in the corner who then quietly disappeared into the netherworld after the financial crisis.

In fact I’m looking forward to a number of boomeresque shows, trying to sell old tat for dosh not being relevant anymore. Boomers are going to lose their shirts on classic cars.

[Calcutta]

14 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Here you go:

GDGB						GjGB
Holding Name	Ticker	Shares	Market Value	% of Net		Holding Name	Ticker	Shares	Market Value	% of Net
			(US$)	Assets					(US$)	Assets
Newmont Corp	NEM US	1,037,270	56,800,905	14.3
Barrick Gold Corp	GOLD US	2,283,150	53,174,564	13.39
Newcrest Mining Ltd	NCM AU	969,980	19,675,229	4.95
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd	AEM US	320,262	18,632,843	4.69
Anglogold Ashanti Ltd	AU US	639,838	15,240,941	3.84
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd	KL CN	426,006	16,313,366	4.11	45.28
Kinross Gold Corp	KGC US	1,932,106	12,017,699	3.03		Kinross Gold Corp	KGC US	2,091,252	13,007,587	6.22
Northern Star Resources Ltd	NST AU	1,137,317	10,704,892	2.69		Northern Star Resources Ltd	NST AU	1,268,203	11,936,845	5.7
Evolution Mining Ltd	EVN AU	2,619,346	10,242,165	2.58		Evolution Mining Ltd	EVN AU	3,193,402	12,486,839	5.97
Gold Fields Ltd	GFI US	1,273,448	9,321,639	2.35		Gold Fields Ltd	GFI US	1,311,913	9,603,203	4.59
B2gold Corp	BTG US	1,591,450	8,132,310	2.05		B2gold Corp	BTG US	1,561,650	7,980,032	3.81
Yamana Gold Inc	AUY US	1,460,905	7,333,743	1.85		Yamana Gold Inc	AUY US	1,889,430	9,484,939	4.53
Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd	SAR AU	1,694,931	5,373,024	1.35		Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd	SAR AU	1,839,596	5,831,620	2.79
Alamos Gold Inc	AGI US	601,285	4,485,586	1.13	62	Alamos Gold Inc	AGI US	571,890	4,266,299	2.04
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd	2899 HK	8,812,000	3,570,258	0.9
Centamin Plc	CEY LN	1,776,478	3,326,556	0.84		Centamin Plc	CEY LN	1,743,219	3,264,276	1.56
Ssr Mining Inc	SSRM US	189,392	3,401,480	0.86		Ssr Mining Inc	SSRM US	244,675	4,394,363	2.1
Centerra Gold Inc	CG CN	451,339	4,129,855	1.04		Centerra Gold Inc	CG CN	355,658	3,254,352	1.56
Alacer Gold Corp	ASR CN	453,036	2,628,450	0.66		Alacer Gold Corp	ASR CN	498,258	2,890,822	1.38
Endeavour Mining Corp	EDV CN	168,944	3,855,242	0.97		Endeavour Mining Corp	EDV CN	140,656	3,209,720	1.53
Regis Resources Ltd	RRL AU	780,982	2,759,322	0.69		Regis Resources Ltd	RRL AU	952,136	3,364,034	1.61
Iamgold Corp	IAG US	722,755	2,601,918	0.66		Iamgold Corp	IAG US	827,421	2,978,716	1.42
Pretium Resources Inc	PVG US	285,122	2,389,322	0.6		First Majestic Silver Corp	AG US	375,657	3,651,386	1.74
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd	HMY US	833,973	2,610,335	0.66		Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd	HMY US	1,066,177	3,337,134	1.59
St Barbara Ltd	SBM AU	1,080,524	2,263,427	0.57		St Barbara Ltd	SBM AU	1,325,935	2,777,502	1.33
Eldorado Gold Corp	EGO US	257,034	2,148,804	0.54		Eldorado Gold Corp	EGO US	331,694	2,772,962	1.32
Oceanagold Corp	OGC CN	956,391	1,904,295	0.48		Oceanagold Corp	OGC CN	952,704	1,896,953	0.91
Coeur Mining Inc	CDE US	374,356	1,969,113	0.5		Coeur Mining Inc	CDE US	372,118	1,957,341	0.94
Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd	1818 HK	1,613,000	1,864,824	0.47		Cia De Minas Buenaventura Saa	BVN US	408,262	3,539,632	1.69
Silver Lake Resources Ltd	SLR AU	1,352,154	1,845,796	0.46		Silver Lake Resources Ltd	SLR AU	1,608,284	2,195,434	1.05
Torex Gold Resources Inc	TXG CN	131,219	1,637,118	0.41		Torex Gold Resources Inc	TXG CN	115,111	1,436,151	0.69
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd	WDO CN	212,064	1,641,541	0.41		Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd	WDO CN	255,392	1,976,933	0.94
Semafo Inc	SMF CN	514,017	1,652,122	0.42		Semafo Inc	SMF CN	527,317	1,694,870	0.81
Perseus Mining Ltd	PRU AU	1,795,079	1,435,159	0.36		Perseus Mining Ltd	PRU AU	2,188,489	1,749,689	0.84
Gold Road Resources Ltd	GOR AU	1,351,951	1,463,199	0.37		Gold Road Resources Ltd	GOR AU	1,546,316	1,673,558	0.8
Resolute Mining Ltd	RSG AU	1,647,586	1,248,213	0.31		Resolute Mining Ltd	RSG AU	1,545,834	1,171,126	0.56
Cia De Minas Buenaventura Saa	BVN US	389,907	3,380,494	0.85
				76.34						62.02
Hecla Mining Co	HL US	804,088	2,557,000	0.64		Hecla Mining Co	HL US	758,614	2,412,393	1.15
Highland Gold Mining Ltd	HGM LN	559,242	1,588,432	0.4		Highland Gold Mining Ltd	HGM LN	490,566	1,393,370	0.67
Dundee Precious Metals Inc	DPM CN	277,446	1,460,732	0.37		Dundee Precious Metals Inc	DPM CN	212,964	1,121,239	0.54
Silvercorp Metals Inc	SVM US	266,486	1,297,787	0.33		Silvercorp Metals Inc	SVM US	371,762	1,810,481	0.87
Teranga Gold Corp	TGZ CN	257,468	1,875,881	0.47		Teranga Gold Corp	TGZ CN	256,599	1,869,549	0.89
Equinox Gold Corp	EQX US	331,844	3,215,568	0.81		Equinox Gold Corp	EQX CN	344,071	3,340,769	1.6
Pan American Silver Corp	PAAS US	322,733	8,623,426	2.17		Pan American Silver Corp	PAAS US	417,124	11,145,553	5.33
First Majestic Silver Corp	AG US	322,453	3,134,243	0.79
				5.98						11.05
Other/Cash	--	--	443,989	0.11		Other/Cash	--	--	149,025	0.07
				0.11						0.07
Franco-Nevada Corp	FNV US	243,215	31,345,549	7.89
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp	WPM US	575,463	21,723,728	5.47
Royal Gold Inc	RGLD US	100,763	12,345,483	3.11
Sandstorm Gold Ltd	SAND US	269,699	2,200,744	0.55		Sandstorm Gold Ltd	SAND US	339,008	2,766,305	1.32
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd	OR US	242,198	2,271,817	0.57		Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd	OR US	194,422	1,823,678	0.87
						Great Bear Royalties Corp	1762020D CN	23,506	37,793	0.02
				17.59						2.21
						JUNIOR MINERS
	1.84				1.84	Sibanye Stillwater Ltd	SBSW US	1,039,062	8,800,855	4.21
	0.93				0.93	Novagold Resources Inc	NG US	449,877	4,071,387	1.95
	1.84					Fresnillo Plc	FRES LN	420,932	3,842,802	1.84
						Industrias Penoles Sab De Cv	PE&OLES* MF	281,540	2,761,962	1.32
						Pretium Resources Inc	PVG US	283,784	2,378,110	1.14
						Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk Pt	MDKA IJ	22,515,200	2,172,875	1.04
						Silvercrest Metals Inc	SILV US	213,167	1,869,475	0.89
						Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd	1818 HK	1,558,500	1,801,815	0.86
	0.33				0.33	Seabridge Gold Inc	SA US	110,277	1,711,499	0.82
						Mag Silver Corp	MAG US	134,469	1,667,416	0.8
						Ramelius Resources Ltd	RMS AU	1,317,179	1,503,742	0.72
						Fortuna Silver Mines Inc	FSM US	329,625	1,486,609	0.71
	0.35				0.35	New Gold Inc	NGD US	1,189,260	1,415,219	0.68
	0.65					Hochschild Mining Plc	HOC LN	579,054	1,366,903	0.65
						Lundin Gold Inc	LUG CN	163,512	1,353,506	0.65
						K92 Mining Inc	KNT CN	462,446	1,262,204	0.6
						Koza Altin Isletmeleri As	KOZAL TI	104,534	1,148,175	0.55
	0.23				0.23	Westgold Resources Ltd	WGX AU	703,573	1,066,055	0.51
						Osisko Mining Inc	OSK CN	405,571	1,040,430	0.5
						Great Bear Resources Ltd	GBR CN	99,306	799,069	0.38
						Novo Resources Corp	NVO CN	309,934	723,437	0.35
	0.13				0.13	Mcewen Mining Inc	MUX US	703,534	696,991	0.33
						Roxgold Inc	ROXG CN	645,227	625,523	0.3
						Endeavour Silver Corp	EXK US	303,482	616,068	0.29
						Alexco Resource Corp	AXU US	272,247	590,776	0.28
						Aurelia Metals Ltd	AMI AU	1,617,541	536,488	0.26
						Gran Colombia Gold Corp	GCM CN	106,992	529,794	0.25
						Gold Resource Corp	GORO US	130,586	523,650	0.25
	0.12				0.12	Premier Gold Mines Ltd	PG CN	352,428	520,383	0.25
						Argonaut Gold Inc	AR CN	328,105	445,319	0.21
						Americas Gold & Silver Corp	USAS US	172,358	422,277	0.2
						Royal Nickel Corp	RNX CN	1,069,292	414,655	0.2
						Dacian Gold Ltd	DCN AU	1,143,908	383,392	0.18
						Golden Star Resources Ltd	GSS US	137,519	380,928	0.18
						Great Panther Mining Ltd	GPL US	669,988	296,872	0.14
						China Gold International Resources Corp	CGG CN	552,517	206,017	0.1
						Gold Standard Ventures Corp	GSV US	291,697	202,321	0.1

Thank you. I almost respect HL's commitment to their job, they work like I do, slap some shit together and tell people to fuck off if they don't like it. No wonder none of us are allowed to work in McDonald's.

[Plan-b]

16 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Here you go:

GDGB

GjGB

That didn't look too good in my browser with its current settings, so I copied it into word and all is revealed.

Thanks, it makes a very good comparison between the two.

[Lightscribe]

Any funds available with exposure to Chinese gold miners? (Not that for one moment can you trust any figures coming from that direction)

[Plan-b]

DB ahead of the game yet again ...  

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

34 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’m just looking forward to TV shows disappearing.

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker can bring "The Scrimpers" back from the 1990s again.

[Pip321]

57 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Assuming you mean the bust in the wider economic sense: I am expecting a lot of stuff from 1970s TV shows to reappear; so for example a widespread acceptance that Britain* is finished as a country, a shift from a personal economic progress mindset to one of hanging on, somebody somewhere will be counter-intuitively doing openly alright out of the situation and this will be seen as proof of moral decay (eg proto-oligarchs in early 1990s Russia, speculators in 1920s Germany, Aurthur Dailey in 1970s Britain), formerly well-off groups will see dramatically reduced living standards (fingers crossed for council/civil-service pensioners) and this will again be seen by many as evidence of all the above.

In the narrower financial market sense I expect a bigger longer duration run of what we saw in the March 2020 period. Shock, horror, panic of course. Also things that would never have been thought possible (eg oil going "negative" back then) and associated bizarre stories (eg the fellow who "bought" some, and was trying to work out if he could put it in his swimming pool as he HAD to take delivery). As above people will talk about the end of the world, nothing ever the same again etc. Tales of homeless ex millionaires etc will be prominent, but also of young men from wallstreetbets making six and seven figure sums from puts etc. Yet again this will tie into the theme of moral decline, or a world upside down.

(*all western countries' residents will think the same about their own country) 

Agree.

I lived through a few downturns whilst buying property (many of which are now sold). I was very close to the property market I had confidence to take advantage. I attended one auction just after 9/11 where I bought a terrace and was the only person to buy with all other lots unsold. 

Being ready for shock, horror and panic is half the battle….knowing and remembering what it feels like before it starts. Retail will be crying out for government support, redundancy news, bankruptcy, and the good old media will be full of it. 

Sentiment downturn is a wonderful thing but one has to emotionally  prepare for it and be informed….unfortunately I wasn’t on this forum March 2020, boy how I wish I had been.

So whilst my instinct in March 2020 was to recognise ‘an opportunity’ I wasn’t informed I so when a plague arrived that was to kill half the world I froze….not totally from fear to invest (although I must admit a little fear from the unknown) but froze because I didn’t know where to invest.

I want to be as close to the stock market as I can this time. 

If/when the BK arrives it will drag down everyone’s sentiment….ours too. So my objective will be not to try buy at the very bottom (too difficult to time), it’s not to make tons of money in a rally…..rather I will buy some quality stocks, efts etc which are supported by macro direction and knowing I have saved a fortune by not being sat in a 60/40 funds as Rome burned.

In the meantime…..the odd dabble keeps me interested. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Pip321

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Almost 20 years ago I got ill, would be at least a year before I earned anything again. I didnt have a big mortgage but did have a business loan they wouldnt do a deal on. I was getting sickness benefit but  it only just covered the business loan. Mortgage people were good and allowed me to reduce payments to 2x interest only (so I was paying some of it off).
I spent a year housebound juggling things around on 0% credit cards, selling off my stuff on ebay and planning how this was never going to happen to me again.
I started the seeds then of passive income and decided to spend every single penny I had extra on overpaying the mortgage so at least if something like  that happened again Id have a roof over my head.

Peace of mind was the best investment I ever made.

Same here.I got cancer at 29,told i had 15% chance.Beat that then was really torn.I was building capital fast then,good job for up here about £32k in 2000,the time when i would say i was working roadmaps well,trained.However i chose to take redundancy and not work for 5 years.I sold some investments and paid my mortgage off.I would of made 10x more on those investments than i have on my house,but wouldnt do it different.Best choice i ever made.I had 5 fantastic years ,the most free of my life.I used to pull women online based on places i hadnt visited,and off i went in the car.100+ in 5 years average of one every three weeks   .I realised then i wasnt like most people and had to live on my terms forever or id go nuts,so started to look at my investing different,i looked at the income producing side of it and a baseline i needed to be free.Once i got that when i went back to working,but never cared about the jobs or companies,just how it paid me while i built out my income producing investments .Last year i got double in dividends than my highest salaried year ever,and all tax free.Its been a crazy journey with some really rough times.

Edited January 7, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[CannonFodder]

29 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Any funds available with exposure to Chinese gold miners? (Not that for one moment can you trust any figures coming from that direction)

My understanding is what China mines, China's central bank keeps - its not open 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Spent last night doing some thinking, Friday nights are 🔥🔥 in my house.

Looked at Telefonica, the parent company, is well of it's highs and the dividend isn't as big as Telefonica Brasil, but I wonder if it might provide a lot of the upside with less of the risk. Brazilians are temperamental.

JMHLY, listed in HK, the original Jardine Matheson of Opium Wars fame, now they run hotels, car dealerships and supermarkets. It's the supermarkets that interest me, ten years ago when I was last out that way all the supermarkets in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were owned by Jardines. There's a lot of risk with HK but while trying to think of a way to play Indonesia it seems logical to me that if they get richer they'll be using the supermarket more.

Serco. Price doesn't look too high and let's face it, whatever government we get they're not going to stop weaponising immigration so I might as well join the winning team for a while.

Aviva. The NHS is fucked, my work has a private medical scheme with these, is a big company, share price is about halfway between the highs and lows, 6% div, looks like a safe bet but I'm useless with financials and have no idea if they're up to their necks in debt or pensions.

And finally, HL show me two options, GJGB and GDGB, I figured GDGB would be different companies but the top 10 holdings look exactly the same. Does anyone know the difference?

Another week of this melt up and I'm getting my money back from RR and fucking British Airways. Time to write a proper shopping list and maybe not mortgage my children's futures on reckless gambling...

Iv got 5x in TEF what i have in TEF Brazil,but i am still adding a few more of the Brazil one.Might be 4x when im done.TEF is one of my top 8 holdings.

[wherebee]

My biggest fear in the BK now is:

1 - collapse of brokers.  we know what happened with MF global - clients in the green made good shit investors.

2 - government theft of assets - the western governments have shown their hand in the past 2 years.  Any and all assets can be 'taxed' or 'frozen' if they can think of some bullshit excuse.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

My biggest fear in the BK now is:

1 - collapse of brokers.  we know what happened with MF global - clients in the green made good shit investors.

2 - government theft of assets - the western governments have shown their hand in the past 2 years.  Any and all assets can be 'taxed' or 'frozen' if they can think of some bullshit excuse.

 

 

Theft of assets is my main worry and changing of rules.UK government has nowhere to turn now for money from income etc,so they will go after assets.I suspect they will do something on pensions,but not sure what.From what iv seen it looks like they will try to take everything before they deal with bennies and the public sector pensions.

 

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

My understanding is what China mines, China's central bank keeps - its not open 

So did I, but just noticed ZijinMining Group Co Ltd in the GDGB list provided by   @MrXxxx

[Axeman123]

Interesting article on REITs gating withdrawals etc:

Headline: 

Soured property bets put pressure on Wall Street buyout king Blackstone

"Stephen Schwarzman, the chief executive of the world’s largest private equity firm, is not someone who takes kindly to criticism. So when Blackstone was last month forced to limit investor withdrawals from its $69bn (£58bn) real estate fund, the combative billionaire came out swinging against his company’s detractors. Amid interest rate rises, the 75-year-old rejected the idea that the restrictions reflected problems at the fund or in Blackstone more generally.

'The idea that there is something going wrong with this product because people are redeeming is conflating completely incorrect assumptions,' he said. 'This was not meant to be a mutual fund with daily liquidity. These are pieces of real estate...[We] are in a cycle where retail investors are less apt to be investing in things ... [People] get scared. It is completely normal and not a concern. I look at this and say this is just a pause – an expected pause – of people pulling money out.'

But after a decade of free money, buyout barons are starting to sweat as rates climb higher and the economic outlook darkens, leaving some major players struggling to raise funds while acquisition financing is also drying up. In Blackstone’s case, Schwarzman said the surge in withdrawal requests at its Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust (BREIT) was driven by Asian investors who tend to use high levels of leverage – borrowed money – to back positions. They needed to quickly offload assets to meet margin calls last year as property markets in the region went south.

Last month, Blackstone announced the sale of its stakes in the MGM Grand Las Vegas and Mandalay Bay Resort casinos in Las Vegas for $1.27bn. BREIT will use the proceeds from the sale to boost liquidity in order to meet redemption requests, according to reports..."

"...However, in a rare positive sign for the sector last week, Blackstone’s BREIT managed to secure a significant cash injection in a move intended to shore up confidence in the fund. Blackstone announced that the University of California had agreed to invest $4bn in BREIT, but the private equity giant was forced to offer sweeter than usual terms to secure the injection. The deal means that the University of California’s endowment fund will receive a minimum annual return on its investment of 11.25pc for six years, while Blackstone will provide a $1bn backstop if the fund does not achieve its targets. Other investors in BREIT are not given such generous terms...However, the sweetened deal will also act as a warning sign that big institutional investors will demand more protections to invest in property funds as commercial real estate values decline."

S0 in brief, as a retail investor you haven't just got to worry about the underlying real estate value but also carpet-bagging institutional investors swooping in on preferrential terms and crazily leveraged asian ones with margin calls forcing firesales of assets! Well that would put my mind completely at ease...

Edit because forgot Source:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/soured-property-bets-put-pressure-080000117.html

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Axeman123

[CannonFodder]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

So did I, but just noticed ZijinMining Group Co Ltd in the GDGB list provided by   @MrXxxx

Interesting. Sirius been also talking about this today

 

 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

So did I, but just noticed ZijinMining Group Co Ltd in the GDGB list provided by   @MrXxxx

Quick google implies they mine worldwide, HQ in mainland China. That said, there is no such thing as a completely private enterprise in China AIUI.

13 minutes ago, wherebee said:

MF global

I beleive that was options, with MF as counterparty even though they portrayed themselves as merely market-making. Closer to the current crypto situation than the execution only nominee account stock-broker model.

[Lightscribe]

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Theft of assets is my main worry and changing of rules.UK government has nowhere to turn now for money from income etc,so they will go after assets.I suspect they will do something on pensions,but not sure what.From what iv seen it looks like they will try to take everything before they deal with bennies and the public sector pensions.

 

Wealth, land and dividend taxes. They are going to shake that boomer tree to pay for the bennie increases.

https://labourlist.org/2021/12/why-the-government-should-equalise-tax-on-dividend-and-ordinary-income/?amp

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/12081_19-Land-for-the-Many.pdf

Edited January 7, 2023 by Lightscribe