Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

It's like subscribing to pornhub then they tell you oh we've changed it now to mumsnet.

What you mean from something like this:

to this:

 

Yeah, I see what you mean!

[Option5]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

 

So question for the Dosbods hive mind...when does investing become gambling? :-)))

It's always been gambling. It's just that the odds aren't set by a bookie, but by your fellow gamblers.

[MrXxxx]

6 minutes ago, Option5 said:

It's always been gambling. It's just that the odds aren't set by a bookie, but by your fellow gamblers.

Nicely/succinctly put :-)

[Jay]

10 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

With regard to the Market Sniper calling for a BK in March I think I prefer my portfolio to Warren's.

41% of his portfolio in Apple looks a bit risky.

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

What do you good people think of the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio?

I prefer to listen to the Deity of Durham!

 

He is best investor and his record is excellent over the last 50 years…given that he in his 90s, I think his future performance is limited..

he also believes that a house is a liability…he recently bought Taiwan semi and has investments in Korea..exceptional talent..

 

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, Jay said:

He is best investor and his record is excellent over the last 50 years…given that he in his 90s, I think his future performance is limited..

he also believes that a house is a liability…he recently bought Taiwan semi and has investments in Korea..exceptional talent..

 

Would you swap his Stock picks for yours?

[Jay]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Would you swap his Stock picks for yours?

Absolutely as he has lot more than me..a balanced portfolio but limited if any exposure to pm and miners..even now he is up 300% on apple..

if apple falls another 25% I will buy some..have made multi baggers from apple before..he has oil and some em exposure..

[Napoleon Dynamite]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

HMY your top performer ,you have to bare your chest blindfolded and fall back into a grave with brothers looking on or own HMY to get into the basement 

Don’t worry I’m not going to pile in.  I’ve actually done website & marketing work for mining people a fair while back, so have seen more than most.  

An OTC mining company pretty much magicked out of nowhere to a $25 million market cap and back to nothing again.  Similar here: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=IOF&share=Iofina

Those in the know (i.e. people with discounted shares, large investors & hedge funds) make money all the way up and all the way down, retail mainly lose unless they’re lucky enough to get in and out quick enough.

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

So question for the Dosbods hive mind...when does investing become gambling? :-)))

It’s a gamble, but it’s thought out too.  It’s only a % of net worth and a learning experience.

Have also gone for:

• Abrdn Latin American Equity
• BlackRock Gold and General
• BlackRock Latin American
• iShares Emerging Mkts Eq Idx
• Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund

I’ve followed this thread for years, but never really invested. I’ve always been for very vanilla whole of market funds and have done well by that the past 10 years. But given the knowledge on this thread and what’s happened to traditionally good advice (i.e. 60/40 bonds) I want to tilt towards other things.

 

[stockton]

11 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

The simple answer is no one since 1995 ish that's when low blow turbo's became a thing as they were needed to reduce emissions along with exhaust gas recirculation

The best case for simplicity is the first vw tdi's with rotary pumps pre PD engines and the later common rail 

You have the best of both worlds electronic control but low pressure Bosch ve rotary pumps they are pretty basic regarding ECU controls 

If you can't find one the next best bet is a well looked after late vw PD engine  2009 ish was about the last of them they have no dpf add blue shit which is the main ball ache along with injectors on common rail engines the later the car the more important it is to look after the fule side regular filter changes are a must forget the long service intervals the manufacturer recommend 6-8k max just like it was for decades they want the things to die early with 15-20k service intervals 

 

 

Just catching up so I'm not sure if this has already been answered but there is a 1.9 sdi VW non turbo diesel from the early 2000s, my mate used to have a skoda octavia sdi and I was amazed at how simple it was compared to the tdi alternative. 

[23rdian]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am getting tempted to do that, bought a large in September rather than individual shares like last time.

Spent most of today with my finger above the sell button with Rolls Royce, many market types saying 1.10+, but I am happy at current price. Hate the no divi, the funds will be better somewhere else.

Does GDXJ pay a divi? Ive yet to see one but 25pc up on that so not too shabby. 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Does GDXJ pay a divi?

No, it takes a 0.55 management fee instead. A trade rather than a long term investment IMHO.

[Long time lurking]

12 minutes ago, stockton said:

Just catching up so I'm not sure if this has already been answered but there is a 1.9 sdi VW non turbo diesel from the early 2000s, my mate used to have a skoda octavia sdi and I was amazed at how simple it was compared to the tdi alternative. 

They were something like 60 odd HP but relied on the same engine management system as the earlier TDI with Bosh VE pumps so from a technical prospective they were almost as complicated as a tdi the only difference was they did not have a MAP sensor ,but you are right it is just about the only NA diesel after the mid 90`s and one that passed me by that met the EURO4 ? emission standards 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

 

 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/bruising-house-price-crash-could-just-what-tories-need/

[King Penda]

57 minutes ago, Jay said:

He is best investor and his record is excellent over the last 50 years…given that he in his 90s, I think his future performance is limited..

he also believes that a house is a liability…he recently bought Taiwan semi and has investments in Korea..exceptional talent..

 

It might be if your very rich but my rent over 10 years and 4 months would be about 55k my house cost 49k.obviously I’m not adjusting for inflation however I cleared the morgage in under 7 years so saved 12k in interest and I’ve made about 7k renting my spare room out .but you can’t put a price on peace of mind

[MrXxxx]

27 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Don’t worry I’m not going to pile in.  I’ve actually done website & marketing work for mining people a fair while back, so have seen more than most.  

An OTC mining company pretty much magicked out of nowhere to a $25 million market cap and back to nothing again.  Similar here: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.asp?sharechart=IOF&share=Iofina

Those in the know (i.e. people with discounted shares, large investors & hedge funds) make money all the way up and all the way down, retail mainly lose unless they’re lucky enough to get in and out quick enough.

It’s a gamble, but it’s thought out too.  It’s only a % of net worth and a learning experience.

Have also gone for:

• Abrdn Latin American Equity
• BlackRock Gold and General
• BlackRock Latin American
• iShares Emerging Mkts Eq Idx
• Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund

I’ve followed this thread for years, but never really invested. I’ve always been for very vanilla whole of market funds and have done well by that the past 10 years. But given the knowledge on this thread and what’s happened to traditionally good advice (i.e. 60/40 bonds) I want to tilt towards other things.

 

Only having a laugh @Napoleon Dynamite; hence smileys at end....I always say as long as others 'own' their losers as well as their winners it is up to them what they buy, hence why I always assume anything said on here is DYOR. That said, hope it pays off :-)

[Long time lurking]

When it comes to coal this is as dirty as it gets 

 

[MrXxxx]

25 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

When it comes to coal this is as dirty as it gets 

 

But it's much better than that nasty nuclear...until of course when you need it as someone 'takes their ball back'!

[Noallegiance]

Well that was a boring day in the markets 

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, 23rdian said:

Does GDXJ pay a divi? Ive yet to see one but 25pc up on that so not too shabby. 

Yeah, PM-oriented funds are on fire in the recent weeks.

I post about individual miners I own or consider owning every know and then, but for anyone who might think about treating it as an investment advice I'd like to point out that SILJ outperformed my supposedly high risk - high reward portfolio by a staggering 40% (!) since late September and silver outperformed it by over 30%, a performance so absymal I should just shut the hell up going forward. If seniors keep running while small caps stay unloved, they will eventually get acquired at bargain basement prices.

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, kibuc said:

Yeah, PM-oriented funds are on fire in the recent weeks.

I post about individual miners I own or consider owning every know and then, but for anyone who might think about treating it as an investment advice I'd like to point out that SILJ outperformed my supposedly high risk - high reward portfolio by a staggering 40% (!) since late September and silver outperformed it by over 30%, a performance so absymal I should just shut the hell up going forward. If seniors keep running while small caps stay unloved, they will eventually get acquired at bargain basement prices.

Its the big institution money buying the big caps, small retail not interested yet.

 

Your time will come

Edited January 6, 2023 by CannonFodder

[King Penda]

42 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

But it's much better than that nasty nuclear...until of course when you need it as someone 'takes their ball back'!

You can burry it at the end of the pit 

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

have made multi baggers from apple before..

Years ago, when I was a student, I bought my brother one of those "framed share" presents - one share in Apple. He wanted an iPod but I couldn't afford it, so he got a share. It cost me £40. After stock splits, it is now 56 shares at something like £100 each. It's my most painful investing lesson - should have kept buying more.

[belfastchild]

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Au or Ag?

Fuck me if I'd bought multiples of 500 au brits I wouldn't be talking to you paupers.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

No, it takes a 0.55 management fee instead. A trade rather than a long term investment IMHO.

I get a dividend from GDXJ. But that is the holding purchased before the US version was banned in the UK. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Errol

[Jay]

5 hours ago, King Penda said:

It might be if your very rich but my rent over 10 years and 4 months would be about 55k my house cost 49k.obviously I’m not adjusting for inflation however I cleared the morgage in under 7 years so saved 12k in interest and I’ve made about 7k renting my spare room out .but you can’t put a price on peace of mind

I think what he meant was that he could have made more money by investing than buying his house..I think he still lives in that house he bought in Omaha many decades ago..he bought as you say you need a place for shelter and to live in..

agree that peace of mind is a fantastic investment..

 

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

 

So question for the Dosbods hive mind...when does investing become gambling? :-)))

It's an example of an irregular verb.  He gambles, I invest, you insider trade.