Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[No One]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think Crypto has zero affect on the economy,its all worthless in the end and as it sells off it will go into other assets,bag holders will lose everything,but it just means they are left behind in life as other move forward,crypto is a 100% fraud and scam at the moment.I think REITs could be a problem.The most likely area for me is a big counter party failure on interest rate derivative swaps.If that market locks as big corporates try to refinance big debts it could set off a lot of pain.

I agree crypto is worthless but don't agree that it does not have an effect on the economy.
Crypto is disinflationary because spare savings are being used to buy tulips instead of stocks/gold/food/cars/houses. So it has to be disinflationary, not massively though, more like a sponge in the bath, it absorbs and retains water, so when you remove the plug all the water will try to gush out at once except the one held in the sponge which will release that water more slowly after the bath has emptied.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

"Shell to pay £1.7bn in UK and EU windfall taxes"

Still doing nicely ...UP today today to 23.49 not far of its long term high of 26 quid!

[Axeman123]

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

That paper digital wealth served its purpose of expanding the technology of the ISO compliant crypto infrastructure of CBDCs, its can now be destroyed.

Perhaps, but as a counterpoint: Tether and Binance look systemically risky, if the regulatory rug-pull was the base case all along wouldn't that have been contained in advance? Obviously on the other hand they may want a crisis to enable drastic emergency powers, eg forced conversion of GBP for Britcoin. It may also just be incompetence that has allowed so much of the legcy financial system to become exposed to crypto.

5 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Imagine if it had flowed into physical gold/silver.

Money will move there when the time is right IMO. I would rather PMs move on fundamentals rather than mania, as rocketing PMs on pure sentiment could just bring confiscation to "protect" people. 

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fa5c50f32-1188-4f13-8939-06a40c0904e5

5% fixed rate on a 60% LTV value remortgage, might ease the pain for some but hardly likely to juice the market up IMO.

 

[Loki]

Pug DW8 engine is probably the last of the basic chuggers with minimal electrics

[Noallegiance]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

Hmm... That JEMA Trust (the old JPM Russian securities trust) is apparently paying 27% divi, and trading at 95% discount to nav.!!!             However those are HL stats so guessing are not to be taken as accurate?

The top listed holding at 89% is: JPM GPB liquidity LVNAV X (dist).   Does anyone know what that means?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/j/jpmorgan-emerging-europe,-middle-east-and-afr

 

That could be a heck of a gamble for the brave with potential to lose everything put down or make a ton.

I read all the wording on the page below 3 times. It's very specific. Like they know something. It's damn tempting for me. I have a little dough spare to flutter.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-gb0032164732

[JMD]

49 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I may have just watched a thing of interest.

I had the Investing.com page open to update the QoQ UK Housing Equity Withdrawal figure. It was due an hour ago. It stayed blank. I came off the page, went back to see if it updated and the data line had disappeared completely.

The data is estimated by taking the difference between net lending secured on dwellings and households' gross investment in housing. 

A reading weaker than expected in bearish for GBP.

Perhaps sticking it out on the same day as another leg down in construction PMI wasn't tasting too good. I'm going to assume until a reading is provided that it was a dire figure.

For contextual reference I have provided the historic 15 year chart below showing that out of the previous 55 quarters since the 08 crash, only 4 have see more equity put into housing than withdrawn. Which is pretty astonishing.

As you can see at the bottom of the screenshot the entry that was supposed to be for Jan 6th 9.30am is now Jan 9th.

What credit bubble?

 

Or it may be nothing. Perhaps there's a power cut at the BoE...

I was half listening/watching the so called BBC 6 o'clock news yesterday and they had a piece about the Oct/Nov months of 2022 showing a big spike in owner occupiers remortgaging their properties. I think the jist of the report was that increasing numbers of home owners might be borrowing against their properties to cover the cost-of-living crises.

Edited January 6, 2023 by JMD

[Long time lurking]

22 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

the only thing saving my car is the fact i went from 20-25K a year to 1500-2500 miles a year for last 3 years, the engine isnt liking it much (short journeys) and i have to blast it out every 6 or so weeks to get the dpf light to go off, it usually starts trying to regen after 4 weeks but doesnt get the chance until i blast it out and waste a tenners worth of diesel on a pointless run up and down the motorway, im pretty sick of it. The only problem i saw with the normally asperated mazdas i was looking at was the fact i didnt like them, cx5 too big, cx30 meh, c3 even more meh, but then i discovered the c3 saloon, now that i think looks fairly good, plus no one wants saloons so they are a little cheaper. To be honest i might as well just keep running my old TDI running as long as possible, i wont be getting £20 a year tax again on anything, more like £185 is minimum, not to mention that the mileage drop has cut the insurance in half as well.

Just get the dpf maped out of the ECU and remove the filter element from inside the exaust if the car has no add blue it won't effect the performance as it will have no KNOX sensors as for the mot if it does fail the emissions test run the car down to a quarter of a tank and add a couple of pints of petrol then fill the tank after the MOT 

[No One]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

With regard to the Market Sniper calling for a BK in March I think I prefer my portfolio to Warren's.

41% of his portfolio in Apple looks a bit risky.

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

What do you good people think of the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio?

I prefer to listen to the Deity of Durham!

 

The oracle of Durham has been making near perfect calls so far, only telecos haven't shown green yet, but who knows maybe we will get a turnaround in which case it will be a perfect score.

Buffet says that you pick ten stocks and if 6 are performers then that's a very good result as a stock picker.

 

Buffet is a top notch value stock picker and those who invested with him over the years are all the wealthier for it, hiw reasoning for apple makes sense as well, since apple has a monopoly on the apple store and so much of ppls lives revolves about the phone, its tremendous value. But that might change once the EU cracks on the monopoly

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think Crypto has zero affect on the economy,its all worthless in the end and as it sells off it will go into other assets,bag holders will lose everything,but it just means they are left behind in life as other move forward,crypto is a 100% fraud and scam at the moment.I think REITs could be a problem.The most likely area for me is a big counter party failure on interest rate derivative swaps.If that market locks as big corporates try to refinance big debts it could set off a lot of pain.

DDMB has been supreb on warning junk bond markets are where the action will be.Here's an itnerview that I think was psoted a month or two back but worth watching as she warns -like you are- that repricing of debt at the preipheries will potentially cause major problems.

Western economies are now hostage to foreign bond hawks.The Chinese/Russians/Saudis are in a psotion to skewer the dollar if they play their cards right over the enxt few years

https://palisadesradio.ca/danielle-dimartino-booth-a-wave-of-junk-debt-could-force-the-fed-to-pivot/

Powell’s pain point will come when something critical breaks in the credit markets.

A yield curve inversion signalled that credit would be tightening. However, now the way to interpret it is in terms of banks extending credit. If banks can’t see profit in lending, they won’t lend, and then the economy will slow.

Lastly, Danielle discusses the recent FTX crypto exchange collapse and the concept of Central Bank Digital Currencies. Tom notes that the Ontario Teachers Pension had 90+ million invested in FTX. This is not the place you expect to find your pension plan investing diligently.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:38 – Fed & Press Releases
2:28 – Powell Nickname
5:13 – Carvana & Auto Sales
7:59 – Housing & CPI Metrics
13:22 – Wage Price Spiral
19:07 – CPI & PPI Numbers
23:05 – Fed Politics & Recessions
27:40 – Powell & Credit Markets
33:20 – Fed Data & Actions
35:33 – U.S. & U.K. Pension Systems
38:12 – Crypto & Regulators
40:05 – CBDCs & Governments
44:55 – Wrap Up

 

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2Fa5c50f32-1188-4f13-8939-06a40c0904e5
 

Yeah it will just really be the UK on the shorter terms fiddling around the edges.

Devil is in the detail and the application isn't it?Still going to wipe out BTL IO borrowers in the main and huge chunks of the marginal buyers unless prices drop which will force cost of credit back up.

[afly]

10 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"Shell to pay £1.7bn in UK and EU windfall taxes"

Still doing nicely ...UP today today to 23.49 not far of its long term high of 26 quid!

Potentially cost the UK trillions in investment and reputational damage. Zimbabwe on Thames

 

At least the falling oil price will mean bail-outs right?

[sancho panza]

34 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

the only thing saving my car is the fact i went from 20-25K a year to 1500-2500 miles a year for last 3 years, the engine isnt liking it much (short journeys) and i have to blast it out every 6 or so weeks to get the dpf light to go off, it usually starts trying to regen after 4 weeks but doesnt get the chance until i blast it out and waste a tenners worth of diesel on a pointless run up and down the motorway, im pretty sick of it. The only problem i saw with the normally asperated mazdas i was looking at was the fact i didnt like them, cx5 too big, cx30 meh, c3 even more meh, but then i discovered the c3 saloon, now that i think looks fairly good, plus no one wants saloons so they are a little cheaper. To be honest i might as well just keep running my old TDI running as long as possible, i wont be getting £20 a year tax again on anything, more like £185 is minimum, not to mention that the mileage drop has cut the insurance in half as well.

DDMB on US car market.looks like the pressures easing

[Long time lurking]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

I was half listening/watching the so called BBC 6 o'clock news yesterday and they had a piece about the Oct/Nov months of 2022 showing a very big rise in owner occupiers remortgaging their properties. I think the jist of the report was that increasing numbers of home owners might be borrowing against their properties to cover the cost-of-living crises.

I would guess at, that was caused by people remortgaging off cheap svrs which were rissing rapidly at that point in time 

[Long time lurking]

31 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

That could be a heck of a gamble for the brave with potential to lose everything put down or make a ton.

I read all the wording on the page below 3 times. It's very specific. Like they know something. It's damn tempting for me. I have a little dough spare to flutter.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-gb0032164732

That looks interesting 

Edit ESG 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Lightscribe]

23 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Perhaps, but as a counterpoint: Tether and Binance look systemically risky, if the regulatory rug-pull was the base case all along wouldn't that have been contained in advance? Obviously on the other hand they may want a crisis to enable drastic emergency powers, eg forced conversion of GBP for Britcoin. It may also just be incompetence that has allowed so much of the legcy financial system to become exposed to crypto.

Therein lies the key and time will tell (perhaps when it’s far too late to matter).

I think the mass global western incompetence in nearly everything (lockdowns, Covid, vaccines, Russia, energy, budgets, and inflation) is a bit too coincidental and a bit too closely aligned with the WEF goals and the transition to CBDCs, but perhaps I’m just a cynic and it’s all a conspiracy theory (watch that term be used as a weapon by our government).

Problem > reaction > solution.

The introduction of the Digital ID should give everyone a clue.

I’m mean they wouldn’t be so silly to outline it all and tell us what they are going to do would they? 

 

[Plan-b]

16 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Just get the dpf maped out of the ECU and remove the filter element from inside the exaust if the car has no add blue it won't effect the performance as it will have no KNOX sensors as for the mot if it does fail the emissions test run the car down to a quarter of a tank and add a couple of pints of petrol then fill the tank after the MOT 

@Long time lurking So a euro-5 (non ad blue) Diesel with a DPF delete will pass an MOT emissions test using the procedure you outlined above?  

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That looks interesting 

On close inspection of the chart since the plunge of early 22 when it was a 'Russia only fund' it has a shallow cup and handle. Rose sharply from May to Aug 22 and has cupped down and almost back up to the Aug 22 high since.

I don't know what's wrong with me. I'm risk averse! Damn you @JMD !

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, No One said:

The oracle of Durham has been making near perfect calls so far, only telecos haven't shown green yet, but who knows maybe we will get a turnaround in which case it will be a perfect score.

Buffet says that you pick ten stocks and if 6 are performers then that's a very good result as a stock picker.

 

Buffet is a top notch value stock picker and those who invested with him over the years are all the wealthier for it, hiw reasoning for apple makes sense as well, since apple has a monopoly on the apple store and so much of ppls lives revolves about the phone, its tremendous value. But that might change once the EU cracks on the monopoly

Few false dawns on the telcos,but they have been going up this year so far BT up 10% Telenor 6% etc.4%pa and the divs across the sector would do me fine over the cycle.

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

That looks interesting 

Edit ESG 

Only says they have to 'consider it'

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

think the mass global western incompetence in nearly everything (lockdowns, Covid, vaccines, Russia, energy,

It was all about what's happening in the Ukraine it's all been about destroying Russia economicly oil went to zero which is a huge proportion of Russia's economy the rush for cbdcs is simply the west playing catch up to what china already have an soon all the BRICS nation's will have in place ,a far faster, efficient and secure/safer finical system than the west has one where no one entity will be able to freeze or steal another's foreign reserves with no single country having a dominant reserve currency forcing the others to use it 

The whole shit show of the last three years has been all about this ,the west losing it's hedgemony

[Castlevania]

49 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

That could be a heck of a gamble for the brave with potential to lose everything put down or make a ton.

I read all the wording on the page below 3 times. It's very specific. Like they know something. It's damn tempting for me. I have a little dough spare to flutter.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-gb0032164732

NAV: 46p

Share price: 91p

Not tempted at that premium.

[Noallegiance]

Just added this to a watchlist:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/central-asia-metals-ord-usd0.01

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Few false dawns on the telcos,but they have been going up this year so far BT up 10% Telenor 6% etc.4%pa and the divs across the sector would do me fine over the cycle.

Vod is my worst at -2%. I’m happy with my ‘ins’ in the Telcos there.

[RJT1979]

Nasdaq jumped

[RJT1979]

Melt up?

[SpectrumFX]

7 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Melt up?

I sold off some stuff this morning, so probably.