Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[nirvana]

20 minutes ago, No One said:

watermakr has "flatearth" on it, so you can discard this into the bin

whatever, you need to piece together the truth yerself bruv, so much lies out there........

i now believe in FEKKIN ENORMOUS BIG TREE STUMPS till someone can disprove it 

PS do you believe they landed on the moon? how did they get that fekkin enormous buggy on that papier mache and tin foil spaceship? eh eh eh bruv!!!!

Edited January 5, 2023 by nirvana

[HousePriceMania]

 

[DurhamBorn]

Ashmore giving a big profit now,likely others waking up to EM bonds and currency outperforming western for a cycle.It was one of the biggest shorted stocks on the market when we were buying it .Im tempted to top a third off for some more direct exposure into Brazil here.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

UK gives 100,000 yen a month per child if down as ADHD twenty times more than Japan is offering.

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

That's about £30.

[Starsend]

43 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Oil moving down again? Apparently heading 65 66 by Friday night

 

 

 

 

Sweet, I'll be going in balls deep.

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ashmore giving a big profit now,likely others waking up to EM bonds and currency outperforming western for a cycle.It was one of the biggest shorted stocks on the market when we were buying it .Im tempted to top a third off for some more direct exposure into Brazil here.

Could do with a bit of a steer re emerging markets locations. Emerging Markets EFTs/Funds have a right bundle of assortments in them with a huge emphasis on Asia and often China.

I have Brazil, Turkey….wondered what the view is on India, China (has its debt and property issues), so other suggested locations. Imagine Russia is good but too speculative? 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Pip321

[onlyme]

26 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Could do with a bit of a steer re emerging markets locations. Emerging Markets EFTs/Funds have a right bundle of assortments in them with a huge emphasis on Asia and often China.

I have Brazil, Turkey….wondered what the view is on India, China (has its debt and property issues), so other suggested locations. Imagine Russia is good but too speculative? 

Vietnam and Thailand look to be in a very good position to pick up industrially from manufacturers looking to second source or even relocate out of China and Taiwan.  Short timescale as well with the Taiwan invasion risk.

[Boglet]

10 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Vietnam and Thailand look to be in a very good position to pick up industrially from manufacturers looking to second source or even relocate out of China and Taiwan.  Short timescale as well with the Taiwan invasion risk.

TSMC send to be the biggest holding in all the EM funds I can buy in my Standard Life employer pension. Default is some ESG bullshit that they moved everyone to back in October.

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Vietnam and Thailand look to be in a very good position to pick up industrially from manufacturers looking to second source or even relocate out of China and Taiwan.  Short timescale as well with the Taiwan invasion risk.

Agree,and i think Indonesia might be a fantastic bet,but again not easy to get exposure.One of the reasons i have been buying Telenor is because they are huge in Thailand and Malaysia,and good to see them sell Pakistan.

[honkydonkey]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agree,and i think Indonesia might be a fantastic bet,but again not easy to get exposure.One of the reasons i have been buying Telenor is because they are huge in Thailand and Malaysia,and good to see them sell Pakistan.

Black Rock Frontiers was 1st Saudi, 2nd Indonesia

[DoINeedOne]

 

For Vietnam I remember Tim Price talking about a fund - I don't own so DYOR

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-usd0.01

Few short video clips from a few years old now but interesting but he mentions Vietnam alot in most of his interviews

 

 

Some more comments a few years ago 

Most institutional managers are constrained on multiple fronts. They track some form of index or benchmark; that index or benchmark will almost invariably be market-relative as opposed to absolute in nature; they will have either very limited or no real discretion to limit the size of their funds.

Take Vietnam, which is one of our favourite markets. It’s a favourite primarily on valuation grounds: its companies, whilst in many cases highly profitable and growing quickly, trade on a huge discount to those throughout the rest of the world. It’s also a favourite because of economic fundamentals. Vietnamese wage rates, for example, are roughly a third of those in China.

But Vietnam is also a favourite because of a technical wrinkle. By dint of being defined as a ‘frontier’ economy (one step below that of an ‘emerging market’), Vietnam does not sit within the MSCI World Index – it’s not yet a developed economy. But it doesn’t sit within the MSCI Emerging Market Index either – it’s not yet deemed mature enough.

What this means is that if you’re an institutional fund manager tracking either MSCI World or MSCI Emerging, you don’t get to play in Vietnam. You’re not allowed. You can’t. Well, we can – because we’re not constrained by a box marked MSCI or anything else. Hint: it will likely make more sense as a private investor to own Vietnam before the Big Boys are allowed in.

Edited January 5, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[onlyme]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agree,and i think Indonesia might be a fantastic bet,but again not easy to get exposure.One of the reasons i have been buying Telenor is because they are huge in Thailand and Malaysia,and good to see them sell Pakistan.

Picks and shovels picks maybe as well, going to be difficult spinning up their own electronics sector, other outside companies will be coming in to do that as they diversify location (TMSC et al),  but on the ground already are the industrial construction companies, cement producers that sort of thing to get all the new infrastructure in place might be a good bet.

[honkydonkey]

This looks like an OK buy to me to get Brazil exposure. Market Vectors Small Cap Brazil. BRF.

[honkydonkey]

19 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

For Vietnam I remember Tim Price talking about a fund - I don't own so DYOR

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vinacapital-vietnam-opportunity-usd0.01

Few short video clips from a few years old now but interesting but he mentions Vietnam alot in most of his interviews

 

I went long this one, only because it's cheaper than the one you mention and I'm a cheapskate. VNM.

[Paulie]

53 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

I went long this one, only because it's cheaper than the one you mention and I'm a cheapskate. VNM.

This and the Brazil fund look like promising holdings at inflection points. Which platform are you on? Can't obviously see them on HL or AJBell. I could be wrong.....

[reformed nice guy]

On the trend of charts , here are a few:

First up, M2 for US dollars going back decades. Definition from investopedia: "M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash"

 

Next up is M2 month on month percentage change, same timeframe.

 

Will Eurodollars and other offshore oddities fill the gap? Will Yuan step in? Gold? Or will there be a deflation of credit.....

[Long time lurking]

 

[Cattle Prod]

Just like the test on my son, I didn't think people would go for cold showers when reality hit. Germany saying "Nein!"

 

[M S E Refugee]

I watched the latest Market Sniper video and he thinks that there will be a massive deflationary event (possibly March)where everything goes down including commodities but he doesn't think they will go down to the lows of March 2020.

He is long term bullish on PM's and Commodities so I will continue to hold through any BK.

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I watched the latest Market Sniper video and he thinks that there will be a massive deflationary event (possibly March)where everything goes down including commodities but he doesn't think they will go down to the lows of March 2020.

He is long term bullish on PM's and Commodities so I will continue to hold through any BK.

 

Wonder what makes him think it's that soon and able to give a somewhat detailed date

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Wonder what makes him think it's that soon and able to give a somewhat detailed date

I'm not sure, I won't be trading on his theory but I will not be shocked if he's correct.

Although he may have some interesting contacts and Intel.

 

[reformed nice guy]

27 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I watched the latest Market Sniper video and he thinks that there will be a massive deflationary event (possibly March)where everything goes down including commodities but he doesn't think they will go down to the lows of March 2020.

He is long term bullish on PM's and Commodities so I will continue to hold through any BK.

 

I have been playing around some more with the St Louis Fed website.

To add to this, have a look at this graph of US corporate bond yields. "...tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade rated corporate debt publicly issued"

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CMEY

Edited January 5, 2023 by reformed nice guy

[honkydonkey]

2 hours ago, Paulie said:

This and the Brazil fund look like promising holdings at inflection points. Which platform are you on? Can't obviously see them on HL or AJBell. I could be wrong.....

igindex. I think they're both on the nyse so HL won't have them as they only do UK, no idea about AJ.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Wonder what makes him think it's that soon and able to give a somewhat detailed date

I am not convinced it all goes down then, unless there is a black swan event. Point of my post is I am wondering if Binance will be the black swan. 1.2 trillion enterprise.