Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[SpectrumFX]

9 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Gold having a perky start to the week, seemingly under the radar.

I've been staring at the chart most of the morning.

My ISA is about 50% PMs at the moment.

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Gold having a perky start to the week, seemingly under the radar.

markets are happy cos German import prices are down 4.5%  

[Axeman123]

18 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

50% PMs

Rookie numbers.

I am 75%

[HousePriceMania]

Kevin Bloody Wilson is releasing a new song:

"Hey, Centrica ya cunt, where's me fucking cash ?

I've bought shares in all this other junk and they're all paying out."
 

[Lightscribe]

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/03/gold-surges-to-6-month-high-and-analysts-expect-new-records-in-2023.html
 

FRES ticking up nicely.

Wheres all those naysayers on here berating buying FRES in the 600’s? 

[Heart's Ease]

5 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/03/gold-surges-to-6-month-high-and-analysts-expect-new-records-in-2023.html
 

FRES ticking up nicely.

Wheres all those naysayers on here berating buying FRES in the 600’s? 

Quite. I think I plumped for a slice of Gazprom just before the 600s hit.

Ah well!

[RupertT]

50 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

This is what you used to see routinely in France in the 70s and 80s. A sign saying "Chaussée déformée" meaning busted up piece of road but Gallic Shrug.

An old family joke translated this as deformed socks. 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Villages could become essentially inacessable without at least a faux 4x4, with bigger wheels/ground clearance/suspension travel (eg 2wd Dacia Duster). Just a little bit more third world leaking in to our reality

100% this - it's the main reason I'm hanging onto the old Landy (although I'd quite like to trade "down" for an N/A diesel at some point, because ECU + piezo injectors + turbo looks increasingly like a liability in terms of supply-chain risk and/or ability to self-overhaul)

Zooming out, it's fascinating seeing a system collapse up close, and the sequence in which stuff unravels. It's looking like the "real" capital of the nation (roads, energy infrastructure, health of the working age population) needs to be consumed before the masses finally let go of their prosperity LARP (the massive TVs, the nearly-new car on the drive). Maybe house prices will be the last to go if that's how it unravels.

Decl: I'm short lowered suspension and low-profile tyres, long gigantic sidewalls and sump guards

[Axeman123]

1 minute ago, jamtomorrow said:

It's looking like the "real" capital of the nation (roads, energy infrastructure, health of the working age population) needs to be consumed before the masses finally let go of their prosperity LARP (the massive TVs, the nearly-new car on the drive).

Neatly put. Ironically with the belt and road initiative new African arrivals may soon be horrified at the state of UK roads being worse than what they have left behind!

3 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

low-profile tyres

Interesting thought, maybe retro-fitting smaller steel rims to accept high sidewalls will be the next trend. Alloy wheels and 35 profile tyres are going to look like peak arrogance to future generations.

[Plan-b]

So Neither GDX or GDXJ

are available to be bought on HL or AJBell (AJBell I was already aware of).

Whats changed? did I miss something whilst away?

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Plan-b

[SpectrumFX]

1 minute ago, Plan-b said:

So Neither GDX or GDXJ

are available to be bought on HL or AJBell (AJBell I was already aware of).

Whats changed? did I miss something whilst away?

 

HL got their knickers in a twist about something a while back, and said that you could only buy the GBP versions going forward.

If I'm honest I still don't fully understand the difference. The funds own the underlying assets, so it shouldn't matter what currency you bought the fund with. Presumably there's some sort of currency hedging going on somewhere or other.

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

HL got their knickers in a twist about something a while back, and said that you could only buy the GBP versions going forward.

If I'm honest I still don't fully understand the difference. The funds own the underlying assets, so it shouldn't matter what currency you bought the fund with. Presumably there's some sort of currency hedging going on somewhere or other.

Thanks, Yes I remember this now from a while back.

Anyone know the UK equivalents?

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Plan-b

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

So Neither GDX or GDXJ

are available to be bought on HL or AJBell (AJBell I was already aware of).

Whats changed? did I miss something whilst away?

 

GDX = GDGB(?)

GDXJ = GJGB

Same exact funds, but LSE listed and denominated in £.

[Errol]

38 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/03/gold-surges-to-6-month-high-and-analysts-expect-new-records-in-2023.html
 

FRES ticking up nicely.

Wheres all those naysayers on here berating buying FRES in the 600’s? 

I'm still holding the shares I purchased in the 600s.

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

GDX = GDGB(?)

GDXJ = GJGB

Same exact funds, but LSE listed and denominated in £.

Cheers thanks for your help 

[Funn3r]

4 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Yes I remember this now from a while back.

Anyone know the UK equivalents?

 

Here's the message that HL sent me when they changed it.

The type of investment(s) you hold are non-GBP and as we only settle investments in GBP we’ve made the decision to no longer offer this type of investment. However, as there is a GBP denominated version of this investment, you will still be able to purchase and hold investments in this security.

Current Investment	GBP version
WisdomTree - Physical Silver	WisdomTree - Physical Silver (GBP)
VanEck Vectors ETF - Gold Miners UCITS	VanEck Vectors - Gold Miners UCITS ETF GBP
VanEck Vectors ETF - Junior Gold Miners UCITS	VanEck Vectors - Junior Gold Miners UCITS ETF (GBP)

[Oskar]

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Roads are already wobbling round here (semi-rural Midlands). There's always been a handful closed at any one time with the odd landslip and so on, but it's noticeable they're simply not getting them back open any more - if a road closes unexpectedly today, chances are it'll still be closed 12 months from now.

Going for a drive round here is starting to resemble navigating a maze. Several communities now have long detours to get in and out by road from certain directions.

I think we live in the same village

[belfastchild]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/tech-corner/tech-news/internet-providers-warn-against-eu-plans-to-make-big-tech-cover-telcos-costs

Looks like the EU is getting closer to allowing telcos to charge big users more.The complaints are starting,but there is zero chance longer term it wont happen.Facebook paying Orange means more investment and tax for the French government etc.Once the dam breaks.All going under the radar of the markets it seems for now.

Ofcom are dragging their feet on this.
They were supposed to publish early in Spring 2022 but did it late in October and only partially opened the door. In regard to providers paying for the traffic on the telco networks they say they dont think that is needed now (it is) and they have passed the buck to parliament but have put out another consultation (ffs, it was all in the 2020 one).
Essentially they are just passing the buck to parliament, so its up to the lobbyists. If the EU had gone for it earlier, they probably would have too, similarly if the UK had  done it  this year, so would the EU.

They are also looking at the big three cloud content providers with regard to competition but also traffic on networks etc. Thats a shot across the bows as well.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2022/ofcom-proposes-new-net-neutrality-guidance

In reality, its about government allowing ofcom to make the internet traffic decisions for the UK, instead of just ruling over telco suppliers/broadcasters.

 

[Sidd]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Rookie numbers.

I am 75%

Good attempt but not as close as my 90%.

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Good attempt but not as close as my 90%.

I can't give any more reactions just now, but if I could it would be 

[twocents]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

I've noticed a massive disintegration of the roads recently, far worse than I've ever seen. I'm fed up with hitting potholes that smash my car to fuckery. I recently burst a tyre hitting a pothole in Berkshire and have hit ones just as bad in Wiltshire so not unique to one council. Both of my front wheels now have huge dents on the rim, one of the wheels now has a flat spot. I need to replace both. The road into my village is literally crumbling away. 

What are all the cunts who used to fix them doing? Probably smoking weed and drinking whiskey, well fair play, I'd do the same if I could get away with it.

Probably applying for jobs in the UK's role as a science superpower and the next silicon valley.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/tech-corner/tech-news/internet-providers-warn-against-eu-plans-to-make-big-tech-cover-telcos-costs

Looks like the EU is getting closer to allowing telcos to charge big users more.The complaints are starting,but there is zero chance longer term it wont happen.Facebook paying Orange means more investment and tax for the French government etc.Once the dam breaks.All going under the radar of the markets it seems for now.

this and TC's video in the next reply are why I love the hive mind in this thread.This is info that I as a (pretty much sole trader) jsut couldn't keep abreast of.

With reference to the Middle East(and africa) worth noting Orange has a decent and growing exposure,looks about 15% of revenues currently but could clearly go higher if Euro weakens/EM's strenghten both of which I expect longer term

Orange also have a payment system that appears to be growing nicely

https://www.orange.com/en/africa-and-middle-east

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Cannot be overemphasised how huge this is. MBS is spelling it out so that even Biden can understand:

 

None of them plans on being americas lapdog for much longer. Doesnt really matter if we think they'll succeed, the direction of travel is what matters and their course is set: China and Russia, the BRICS

Great find TC.Thanks for psoting.What a stark warning that is...................investors beware.

[sancho panza]

this is very deflationary for the hosuing market & credit markets mroe generally given the BTLers formed a susbtantial chunk of marginal buyers over last deccade

Looks like lot of people opting to move home/share etc.Could see LL's forced to take HB tenants to pay the bills-London supply up 7% and tenants registering interest down 26%,focring retns towards LHA level

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/london-landlords-forced-cut-rents-tenants-priced/

London landlords forced to cut rents as tenants priced out

The cost of living crisis has put a ceiling on soaring prices

London landlords are being forced to reduce rents, as the cost of living crisis puts a ceiling on soaring prices.

Between October and November 2022 there was a 50pc jump in the number of landlords in the capital cutting their asking rents, according to Chestertons estate agents, which covers the higher end of the London market.

Richard Davies, of Chestertons, said that nearly one in three landlords cut their prices to secure a deal in November. 

Landlords at the higher end of the market are opting for reductions of between 5pc and 10pc because the cost of living crisis has placed “an effective cap” on tenants’ budgets, Mr Davies said.

Across the wider London market, average rental prices fell from £568 per week to £551 between October and November, according to Foxtons estate agents. This was a drop of 3pc – meaning landlords are now charging £68 less per month.

Over the same period, renters also cut their budgets by 1pc, Foxtons said.

Since pandemic restrictions were lifted, London rents have soared at the fastest rate on record. Office workers, students and corporate relocators flooded back to the city all at once, just as supply plunged. City centre rent falls during lockdown meant many landlords sold up, while tenants who were able to secure cheap deals in larger properties are now sitting tight.

But now rent rises have hit saturation as tenants grapple with enormous jumps in their energy bills and the largest drop in real earnings on record due to soaring inflation. This means that landlords are unable to raise rents any higher.

Mr Davies said: “We believe that London’s rental market is now showing signs of stabilising, with more rental properties coming onto the market and an increasing number of landlords being realistic on the rent they are prepared to accept to minimise any void period.”

According to Foxtons, London rental supply rose by 7pc month-on-month in November while the number of renters registering for properties fell by 26pc. This meant that there were 15 renters competing for every new property. This was a 31pc drop compared to October but was still historically high.

Rents agreed via Chestertons in November were up 19pc year-on-year, but the agent has forecast that this growth rate will slow to just 5pc across 2023 before flatlining in 2024.

[Funn3r]

39 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Ofcom are dragging their feet on this.
They were supposed to publish early in Spring 2022 but did it late in October and only partially opened the door. In regard to providers paying for the traffic on the telco networks they say they dont think that is needed now (it is) and they have passed the buck to parliament but have put out another consultation (ffs, it was all in the 2020 one).
Essentially they are just passing the buck to parliament, so its up to the lobbyists. If the EU had gone for it earlier, they probably would have too, similarly if the UK had  done it  this year, so would the EU.

They are also looking at the big three cloud content providers with regard to competition but also traffic on networks etc. Thats a shot across the bows as well.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/news-centre/2022/ofcom-proposes-new-net-neutrality-guidance

In reality, its about government allowing ofcom to make the internet traffic decisions for the UK, instead of just ruling over telco suppliers/broadcasters.

 

I'm in two minds. 

On the one hand I can see that the big broadcasters/streamers used to pay a lot for expensive satellite distribution of their content. Now it's a no-brainer for them to cease the satellites and offload their delivery problem onto telco networks which were never meant to be broadcast replacements.

On the other, back in the day I used to get service from an Internet Service Provider (ISP.) I used to get all kinds of services provided by my ISP such as email, usenet, security. Now all those services are gone and they should remove the "S" from ISP.

So what is ISP/telco's sole remaining function? Surely it is to be a data pipe from A to B, where A is something I want and B is me. That's what's happening. If telcos feel aggrieved then let them put their prices up and/or rejig their tariffs to penalise 24x7 Netflixers.

I don't want government telling me what type of data I can and can't send/receive on the internet. 

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

this and TC's video in the next reply are why I love the hive mind in this thread.This is info that I as a (pretty much sole trader) jsut couldn't keep abreast of.

With reference to the Middle East(and africa) worth noting Orange has a decent and growing exposure,looks about 15% of revenues currently but could clearly go higher if Euro weakens/EM's strenghten both of which I expect longer term

Orange also have a payment system that appears to be growing nicely

https://www.orange.com/en/africa-and-middle-east

Great find TC.Thanks for psoting.What a stark warning that is...................investors beware.

Looks a nice way to play doesnt it.Ok we arent leveraging the whole gains,but if we can capture some in solid companies its a big bonus.Not sure who the big baccy players are in the Middle East,BAT sold Iran i think.