Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

That's what's happening. If telcos feel aggrieved then let them put their prices up and/or rejig their tariffs to penalise 24x7 Netflixers.

Thats the problem though, thats outside the ofcom remit currently. Its not just the end users but the inputs to the pipe.

Telcos want the legal ability to do what you say at the minute but cant.

Its more about 90% of the bandwidth in the UK being used by just 6 content providers, so either they pay for it or the customer does but ofcom/government has to decide who does. If the customer were to pay for it, forget about rpi + z increases it would be rpi x z

As the phrase goes, its time to shit or get off the pot and make a decision, ofcom have just passed the buck to the government as its not in their remit.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

So Neither GDX or GDXJ

are available to be bought on HL or AJBell (AJBell I was already aware of).

Whats changed? did I miss something whilst away?

 

I have an old Halifax ISA, loads of stuff not available on it, but I did buy GDXJ in September. Funny how some do allow trades, while others do not.

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Good attempt but not as close as my 90%.

Pfff. I've got 104%.

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have an old Halifax ISA, loads of stuff not available on it, but I did buy GDXJ in September. Funny how some do allow trades, while others do not.

Yep, I've got GDXJ in HL they'll let me hold it (for now) and sell some, but not buy any more.

[Pip321]

3 hours ago, Starsend said:

I've also noticed some weird shit with road closures over the last year, like they've just given up and don't give a fuck anymore.

I've flown back into Gatwick twice, both times the roads are a fucking disgrace. One time, the M25 was down to one lane for miles and miles, the M4 was shut and the M3 was shut wtf. Who in their right mind would close the M4 and the M3 at the same time!

Locally I've noticed they now just shut main roads and don't bother putting diversion signs out causing absolute chaos.

One of my conspiracy theories this….

I drove home from playing football a distance of about 2 miles across town and there were 4 sets of full blown roadworks….all with nothing happening of course.I couldn’t avoid these because the side routes also had roadworks.

It’s been like this since lockdown stopped and never seen anything like this before and my theory is that’s it’s to make us all believe Britain is still busy (ie because traffic indicates busy) or they are just trying to keep cars off the road.

As for pot holes….I think the council are using them as a cheap alternative to speed bumps.  

Got my tin hat on today. Council fuckers. 😉

[King Penda]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

One of my conspiracy theories this….

I drove home from playing football a distance of about 2 miles across town and there were 4 sets of full blown roadworks….all with nothing happening of course.I couldn’t avoid these because the side routes also had roadworks.

It’s been like this since lockdown stopped and never seen anything like this before and my theory is that’s it’s to make us all believe Britain is still busy (ie because traffic indicates busy) or they are just trying to keep cars off the road.

As for pot holes….I think the council are using them as a cheap alternative to speed bumps.  

Got my tin hat on today. Council fuckers. 😉

It’s cable broadband going in that’s causing chaos on the houseing estates .well it’s mainly lilla internet they are nealy 20 a month cheaper than virgin and it’s faster 

[Plan-b]

8 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s cable broadband going in that’s causing chaos on the houseing estates .well it’s mainly lilla internet they are nealy 20 a month cheaper than virgin and it’s faster 

Interesting - This?  https://lilaconnect.co.uk/

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Interesting - This?  https://lilaconnect.co.uk/

Yes in stoke they are digging every estate up open reach are doing the same in uttoxeter

[nirvana]

fuk me the FED CUNTS are on medium now, lmfao 

https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/why-we-missed-on-inflation-and-implications-for-monetary-policy-going-forward-fcd157e2ffcf

TLDR he's predicting a top for IRs at 5.4%

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

ECU + piezo injectors + turbo looks increasingly like a liability in terms of supply-chain risk and/or ability to self-overhaul

bollox u can pick up that stuff dirt cheap......I'm even looking into some software so I flash my own ECU...

BM ECUs are like £15 off ebay 

[twocents]

31 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

One of my conspiracy theories this….

I drove home from playing football a distance of about 2 miles across town and there were 4 sets of full blown roadworks….all with nothing happening of course.I couldn’t avoid these because the side routes also had roadworks.

It’s been like this since lockdown stopped and never seen anything like this before and my theory is that’s it’s to make us all believe Britain is still busy (ie because traffic indicates busy) or they are just trying to keep cars off the road.

As for pot holes….I think the council are using them as a cheap alternative to speed bumps.  

Got my tin hat on today. Council fuckers. 😉

To look busy, faux road bumps and to keep cars off the road and sometimes it's like roadworks are placed simultaneously on all the main routes out of a district  to deter travel between districts maybe to help local trader mates.

Placing cones and signs without any road digging probably also helps to give their road repair mates some council work just putting up the cones and signs.  That modus operandi also seems to be evidenced when councils use residents' council tax money to completely resurface lengths of previously perfectly satisfactory roads and don't repair nearby roads full of potholes. 

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by twocents

[Pip321]

23 minutes ago, King Penda said:

It’s cable broadband going in that’s causing chaos on the houseing estates .well it’s mainly lilla internet they are nealy 20 a month cheaper than virgin and it’s faster 

Sounds like you might work for ‘them’…..don’t spoil my conspiracy theory. Without such theories the world reality is even worse 😆

Ps…yep agree, some cables, some utilities etc.👍🏻

[twocents]

14 minutes ago, nirvana said:

fuk me the FED CUNTS are on medium now, lmfao 

https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/why-we-missed-on-inflation-and-implications-for-monetary-policy-going-forward-fcd157e2ffcf

TLDR he's predicting a top for IRs at 5.4%

.

Quote

Why We Missed On Inflation AGAIN, and Implications for Monetary Policy Going Forward

They couldn't predict the inflation so for sure they can't predict future interest rates.

Edited January 4, 2023 by twocents

[Funn3r]

59 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Thats the problem though, thats outside the ofcom remit currently. Its not just the end users but the inputs to the pipe.

Telcos want the legal ability to do what you say at the minute but cant.

Its more about 90% of the bandwidth in the UK being used by just 6 content providers, so either they pay for it or the customer does but ofcom/government has to decide who does. If the customer were to pay for it, forget about rpi + z increases it would be rpi x z

As the phrase goes, its time to shit or get off the pot and make a decision, ofcom have just passed the buck to the government as its not in their remit.

Effectively my own "ISP" is already segregating out the heavy streaming customers. I pay 45/month for VDSL with a 300GB data cap. For "typical" internet use such as web surfing you'd be hard pushed to hit that cap. Once you start on torrenting or 4k Netflix streaming though you're likely to bust through it and be paying for additional gigabytes of traffic. 

So that must be Ofcom-legal already.

[baffledbyzirp]

Relative value of productive assets vs vanity flexhibitionist objects.

Today I agreed in principle to purchase a SS&SC lathe and a variable speed milling machine for under £6000. The replacement new equivalents would cost in the order of £70,000 and are produced predominantly in China or Taiwan. I shall hope to double my money, although there are costs to consider and, if there are major mechanical issues, the margins will be squeezed significantly.

Over Christmas I succumbed to my weakness and bought a watch that I have been wanting for over a year. The price of the watch at an AD is £10,350 yet I had to pay an additional £2250 to secure a second hand example that had VAT based on the Margin Scheme. The price I paid was cheap by reference to identical alternatives available on Chrono24.

The market for my machines will be small independent engineers in the UK, or Turkish/ Indian buyers for export.

When I started in the machine tool industry (late 80s) you could buy 6 used Rolex GMTs for the price of a used Colchester Mascot. Now you can buy 3-4 used Colchester Mascots for a single second-hand Rolex GMT. The world is clearly upside down when the value of productive assets is so low relative to vanity purchases. The only increased value to be made on the watch is via speculation. BTW I am not your standard Range-Rover driver who wants to show off. Rather I love watches and horology because it is how man made sense of an uncertain world and am fascinated by the engineering genius of men such as Breguet and Harrison. I won't wear the watch I bought often because it is an invitation to be robbed.

It occurs to me that this example serves as a metaphor for the difference between the decadent developed and practical productive emerging markets. How can our society grow and thrive when we attribute value to the wrong shit and don't understand the difference between income and capital? Why do we hero worship financial quacksalvers who shuffle money around in ever wider and quicker circles thereby endangering the system upon which they rely, while vilifying those who produce goods employing ingenuity and force.

On another note I am looking into Latin funds and am interested in buying ABRDN Latin Income Accumulation. Are there better alternatives? I am also confused by the pricing procedure that appears to occur once a day. You have to undertake to buy the fund without agreeing the price in advance. Any ideas of suggestions would be most welcome.

Happy New Year all and best of luck with this years investments.

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looks a nice way to play doesnt it.Ok we arent leveraging the whole gains,but if we can capture some in solid companies its a big bonus.Not sure who the big baccy players are in the Middle East,BAT sold Iran i think.

Like you say you can't leverage the gains but then if you use an ETF quite often you're getting a lot of finacial market exposure you may not want.I try and get a few ADR's instead if we can but it's not perfect and you can't really spray n pray.

Hence I've always beena fan of using the Telco's to get exposure in places where Western investors would struggle forgood research.

Hence like Telefonica for it's South Amercia exposure,Orange as above and Sing Tel more generally for the Far East

Middle East is harder without going into specifics eg Etisalat 18th largest worldwide by subscribers, Zain, neither got an ADR but Vodafone has a presence in Qatar,UAE,Bahrain,and partnership agreements ina few more.

I thinkt eh Euro telcoms will rotate into these as willt eh US ones.

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/01/03/gold-surges-to-6-month-high-and-analysts-expect-new-records-in-2023.html
 

FRES ticking up nicely.

Wheres all those naysayers on here berating buying FRES in the 600’s? 

Intersting assessment.I think CB buying is the tell here.

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2022/12/central-banks-maintain-their-appetite-gold

 

 

Meanwhile there are some big moves happening in the insto moeny sector ie $10bn + market cap-Newmont/Barrick/Anglogold/Franco/Agnico/Wheaton/GFI.Second day of solid gains

[Lightscribe]

First 50%er for me in the goldie’s is Harmony.

[geordie_lurch]

15 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

First 50%er for me in the goldie’s is Harmony.

Me too - 52.77% so must have bought similar times although regretting only buying £1000 worth

Oilies could drop a fair bit lower from here it seems due to 'sentiment' it seems but I'm going to sit tight this time I think and await the divis whilst most of the majors continue their buy backs

Edited January 4, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[kibuc]

Small caps and explorecos still struggling, with a fair amount on my list lagging badly behind SILJ. Retail clearly not in the game yet.

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod anyone else.PBR looking good value in a well bid oilies marekt

I've coma scored it 5 chart,5 income, 3 balance sheet,5 FCF,3 sector(sector is pretty pumped now,not a lot of value out there)

meaning 21/25 which is a god score in my little world.On examining the Market watch balance sheet figures,very little goodwill/intagibles on there and a healthy portion attritubatlebe to equity holders

dyor natch but I think I'm going to dip a toe here and start a laddert.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pbr/financials/balance-sheet

Edited January 4, 2023 by sancho panza

[BurntBread]

Petrobras features at nearly 5% of holdings in BRLA, so I guess a lot of folks here have a little slice already. I think there was some discussion previously about political risk for this one specifically (rather than Brazilian shares in general), but I don't remember the details of the discussion. That was why I didn't build a separate holding.

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

One of my conspiracy theories this….

I drove home from playing football a distance of about 2 miles across town and there were 4 sets of full blown roadworks….all with nothing happening of course.I couldn’t avoid these because the side routes also had roadworks.

It’s been like this since lockdown stopped and never seen anything like this before and my theory is that’s it’s to make us all believe Britain is still busy (ie because traffic indicates busy) or they are just trying to keep cars off the road.

As for pot holes….I think the council are using them as a cheap alternative to speed bumps.  

Got my tin hat on today. Council fuckers. 😉

If you really believe that you are mental 😆 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, RJT1979 said:

If you really believe that you are mental 😆 

Northants have a set of traffic lights on every corner.

I'd wager someone at the councils brother sells traffic lights.

 

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

First 50%er for me in the goldie’s is Harmony.

FFS I thought you meant share price up 53% so far today. Just had to put the bottle of beer back in the fridge!

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Villages could become essentially inacessable without at least a faux 4x4, with bigger wheels/ground clearance/suspension travel (eg 2wd Dacia Duster). Just a little bit more third world leaking in to our reality. This would presumably further stratify the countryside as a place for people with money. In time it might even become a parish council policy to keep council estate marauders in Vauxhall Corsas away (although Pikies tend to have off-roaders already). 

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things. So for instance, "poor road surface, use at own risk" might become a common sight on less travelled B roads. Similar might appear next to pavements that are never going to be fixed, and perhaps "road prone to flooding" or "underpass prone to flooding" will get the same treatment. In effect: "We know its fucked, but we have no plans to fix it".

I think those road/pavement signs you predict will become the reality very soon. Local councils will not have the money to prioritise road repair.

In fact round here our pavements were resurfaced recently using a really rough and ugly asphalt mix which they just laid on top of the old asphalt and the finish is so un-evan puddles form after rain...  The crappy thing is the pavements were not bad to begin with, so (surprise, surprise) the council have just spent and wasted money to only make things worse!! 

However I think the North of England has been experiencing this kind of disrepair and running down of services for a long time. I visited Bootle near Liverpool in mid-90s and the condition of many of the roads was terrible, I thought at the time it seemed almost like something from a war film. 

Edited January 4, 2023 by JMD