Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[geordie_lurch]

5 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

To throw in an anecdote, a private business that I know about that I never expected to go under (big margins) has went into administration, being sold as a going concern. "Cash flow difficulties".

What sector @reformed nice guy

Edited January 4, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, Calcutta said:

The roads is a good call, AFAIK there is still a pretence that potholes might be repaired, but it's really not fooling anyone anymore.

My personal event horizon will be rubbish collections. Around here they've already gone onto fortnightly collections, started missing out as many bins as they can and given up emptying litter bins. It won't be long before they either go on strike or get sacked, then it's a matter of time before the locals discover how much easier and more fun it is to pile up garbage in the street and burn it for warmth. 

That's it then, this is India, game on.

Roads are already wobbling round here (semi-rural Midlands). There's always been a handful closed at any one time with the odd landslip and so on, but it's noticeable they're simply not getting them back open any more - if a road closes unexpectedly today, chances are it'll still be closed 12 months from now.

Going for a drive round here is starting to resemble navigating a maze. Several communities now have long detours to get in and out by road from certain directions.

[BadAlchemy]

From https://www.dividenddata.co.uk ...

[ILikeCake]

26 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Roads are already wobbling round here (semi-rural Midlands). There's always been a handful closed at any one time with the odd landslip and so on, but it's noticeable they're simply not getting them back open any more - if a road closes unexpectedly today, chances are it'll still be closed 12 months from now.

Going for a drive round here is starting to resemble navigating a maze. Several communities now have long detours to get in and out by road from certain directions.

I hit another huge pothole on my commute this morning, how I didn't crack my alloy or have a blow out I don't know.  I have a 50 mile commute every morning and it's a nightmare trying to remember and dodge all the potholes in the dark.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Cannot be overemphasised how huge this is. MBS is spelling it out so that even Biden can understand:

 

None of them plans on being americas lapdog for much longer. Doesnt really matter if we think they'll succeed, the direction of travel is what matters and their course is set: China and Russia, the BRICS

[Errol]

What's the best Middle East focused ETF or investment trust?

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, Errol said:

What's the best Middle East focused ETF or investment trust?

One of the reasons i bought NinetyOne is because i think they might win big middle east mandates.Its very hard to find a way to play the region direct.One of my interests is Re-wilding and iv been watching and reading a lot about the Saudis doing huge amounts.They dont mess about.They have brought in top people and look to have a great long term plan.

[DurhamBorn]

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/tech-corner/tech-news/internet-providers-warn-against-eu-plans-to-make-big-tech-cover-telcos-costs

Looks like the EU is getting closer to allowing telcos to charge big users more.The complaints are starting,but there is zero chance longer term it wont happen.Facebook paying Orange means more investment and tax for the French government etc.Once the dam breaks.All going under the radar of the markets it seems for now.

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Interesting to see in what order things collapse.So far dentists and the NHS could be counted as gone,what next?.Care homes?.BTL sector so millions looking to rent but nothing there?

Web Forum hosting....

[Starsend]

12 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Road maintenance has been failing for a long time in the UK. I think the next stage will be traffic signals being switched off to save energy, or left unrepaired after failing. Similarly maybe we will see minor foot and road bridges just cordoned off indefinitely once repairs come due.

Just a general third world meets health and safety theme.

I've noticed a massive disintegration of the roads recently, far worse than I've ever seen. I'm fed up with hitting potholes that smash my car to fuckery. I recently burst a tyre hitting a pothole in Berkshire and have hit ones just as bad in Wiltshire so not unique to one council. Both of my front wheels now have huge dents on the rim, one of the wheels now has a flat spot. I need to replace both. The road into my village is literally crumbling away. 

What are all the cunts who used to fix them doing? Probably smoking weed and drinking whiskey, well fair play, I'd do the same if I could get away with it.

[HousePriceMania]

14 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've noticed a massive disintegration of the COUNTRY.

 

[BadAlchemy]

15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've noticed a massive disintegration of the roads recently, far worse than I've ever seen.

Same here in Surrey. I've never seen it so bad. I drop my speed right down and am often weaving to avoid the holes. Those council Agile Delivery and NHS Lived Experience managers might be useful after all? A bit soft and squishy but would keep some holes filled for a few days perhaps.

[Starsend]

I've also noticed some weird shit with road closures over the last year, like they've just given up and don't give a fuck anymore.

I've flown back into Gatwick twice, both times the roads are a fucking disgrace. One time, the M25 was down to one lane for miles and miles, the M4 was shut and the M3 was shut wtf. Who in their right mind would close the M4 and the M3 at the same time!

Locally I've noticed they now just shut main roads and don't bother putting diversion signs out causing absolute chaos.

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've noticed a massive disintegration of the roads recently, far worse than I've ever seen.

Villages could become essentially inacessable without at least a faux 4x4, with bigger wheels/ground clearance/suspension travel (eg 2wd Dacia Duster). Just a little bit more third world leaking in to our reality. This would presumably further stratify the countryside as a place for people with money. In time it might even become a parish council policy to keep council estate marauders in Vauxhall Corsas away (although Pikies tend to have off-roaders already). 

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things. So for instance, "poor road surface, use at own risk" might become a common sight on less travelled B roads. Similar might appear next to pavements that are never going to be fixed, and perhaps "road prone to flooding" or "underpass prone to flooding" will get the same treatment. In effect: "We know its fucked, but we have no plans to fix it".

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Villages could become essentially inacessable without at least a faux 4x4, with bigger wheels/ground clearance/suspension travel (eg 2wd Dacia Duster). Just a little bit more third world leaking in to our reality. This would presumably further stratify the countryside as a place for people with money. In time it might even become a parish council policy to keep council estate marauders in Vauxhall Corsas away (although Pikies tend to have off-roaders already). 

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things. So for instance, "poor road surface, use at own risk" might become a common sight on less travelled B roads. Similar might appear next to pavements that are never going to be fixed, and perhaps "road prone to flooding" or "underpass prone to flooding" will get the same treatment. In effect: "We know its fucked, but we have no plans to fix it".

My partner uses a Duster at work,she does nurse calls out into Weardale and Teessdale over the tops windy moor roads etc

[Bilbo]

Gave up my motorbikes a couple of years ago. Mainly because I'm an old fart but it was no pleasure in constantly looking for potholes. Now everytime a bike passes me in the dark I think another organ doner. 

Although I think some sort of collapse is on its way l won't think it's due till we get massive layoffs. Perhaps a thread can be started where redundancy numbers can be collated. Think some TV channel had a rolling list in the last recession.

At the moment I only know of two people made redundant and that was from a company that had no hope 10years ago.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Bilbo

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things. So for instance, "poor road surface, use at own risk" might become a common sight on less travelled B roads. Similar might appear next to pavements that are never going to be fixed, and perhaps "road prone to flooding" or "underpass prone to flooding" will get the same treatment. In effect: "We know its fucked, but we have no plans to fix it".

[Funn3r]

30 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things

This is what you used to see routinely in France in the 70s and 80s. A sign saying "Chaussée déformée" meaning busted up piece of road but Gallic Shrug.

[M S E Refugee]

26 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Gave up my motorbikes a couple of years ago. Mainly because I'm an old fart but it was no pleasure in constantly looking for potholes. Now everytime a bike passes me in the dark I think another organ doner. 

Although I think some sort of collapse is on its way l won't think it's due till we get massive layoffs. Perhaps a thread can be started where redundancy numbers can be collated. Think some TV channel had a rolling list in the last recession.

At the moment I only know of two people made redundant and that was from a company that had no hope 10years ago.

I can remember on the ITN News at 10 every Friday Night during the 80's recession Sandy Gall or Alastair Burnet had a Counter that would show how many jobs had been lost and how many jobs had been created.

Amazingly Sandy Gall is still with us!

Edited January 4, 2023 by M S E Refugee

[Axeman123]

Gold having a perky start to the week, seemingly under the radar.

[planit]

After seeing the post on the previous page I thought I would post the current state of US stocks. The following graph is the EIS US stocks including the SPR. As other people have pointed out, we are at levels last seen in 1985. The decline is evident all the way up to the last figures available - 23rd Dec. This is 2 months after the drawdowns were meant to stop.

 

The trajectory is the important thing here, we don't really know what will happen to oil prices if it reverses. The drawdown rate is 3.3% of US demand (650k barrels per day) so the US needs to find another million barrels per day from somewhere to stop the decline and start rebuilding slowly.

I notice the Chinese have increased quotas to allow their companies to launder more Russian oil

China Significantly Hikes Fuel Export Quotas At The Start Of 2023

If the Chinese oil demand increases over the next 6 months due to Covid ending they will need more oil too.

 

I am continuing to watch this evolve but I don't think we have real price discovery until the decline stops, something has to give soon.

[Starsend]

43 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Villages could become essentially inacessable without at least a faux 4x4, with bigger wheels/ground clearance/suspension travel (eg 2wd Dacia Duster). Just a little bit more third world leaking in to our reality. This would presumably further stratify the countryside as a place for people with money. In time it might even become a parish council policy to keep council estate marauders in Vauxhall Corsas away (although Pikies tend to have off-roaders already). 

At some point we will probably start seeing actual permanent street signs appear acknowledging that this is the new officially accepted level of things. So for instance, "poor road surface, use at own risk" might become a common sight on less travelled B roads. Similar might appear next to pavements that are never going to be fixed, and perhaps "road prone to flooding" or "underpass prone to flooding" will get the same treatment. In effect: "We know its fucked, but we have no plans to fix it".

Inevitable in time unless something changes drastically.

I bet they manage to maintain the speed cameras though.

[Starsend]

37 minutes ago, Bilbo said:

Gave up my motorbikes a couple of years ago. Mainly because I'm an old fart but it was no pleasure in constantly looking for potholes. Now everytime a bike passes me in the dark I think another organ doner. 

Although I think some sort of collapse is on its way l won't think it's due till we get massive layoffs. Perhaps a thread can be started where redundancy numbers can be collated. Think some TV channel had a rolling list in the last recession.

At the moment I only know of two people made redundant and that was from a company that had no hope 10years ago.

I know of two who were told they were being made redundant in December, def seems to be picking up pace.

[Plan-b]

UK Food price inflation hits new high of 13.3%

UK food price inflation hit a new high of 13.3% in December as the price of basics such as pasta and tinned food shot up.

The price of food for shoppers increased by 13.3% in the year to December, up from 12.4% in the year to November, according to the latest BRC-NielsenIQ shop price index.

Fresh foods led the increase in prices – with inflation rising to 15% from 14.3% in November – with the British Retail Consortium trade body warning that the figure “is the highest inflation rate in the fresh food category on record.”

The price of ambient food, such as pasta and tinned food, increased 11% in December against the same month a year earlier.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-price-inflation-hits-new-high-000149011.html

[nirvana]

bloody weird, I just mentioned the shite uk roads on another thread and came here to see you all whinging about em too.......must be ESP kickin in again  in other news deflation is rampant