Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[SpectrumFX]

Poly's up 10% though, so that's cheered me up.

[Napoleon Dynamite]

52 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Vod is my worst at -2%. I’m happy with my ‘ins’ in the Telcos there.

In December I did a spray and pray from shares in this thread.  Looking healthy so far:

Only £500 in each, to test the water.  The past few years I’ve only really invested in funds (LifeStrategy 100 or FTSE Global All Cap) but gives me confidence to invest more from monthly income now.

 

[No One]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Few false dawns on the telcos,but they have been going up this year so far BT up 10% Telenor 6% etc.4%pa and the divs across the sector would do me fine over the cycle.

Fucking hell, BRFS came out storming just now. jesus.

How on earth do you find these stocks anyway? Do you sacrifice a goat to the devil or something?

[CannonFodder]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

With regard to the Market Sniper calling for a BK in March I think I prefer my portfolio to Warren's.

41% of his portfolio in Apple looks a bit risky.

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Berkshire+Hathaway

What do you good people think of the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio?

I prefer to listen to the Deity of Durham!

 

Your advice is good too oh phophet of the post office, seer of the sorting office

[Eventually Right]

23 minutes ago, No One said:

Fucking hell, BRFS came out storming just now. jesus.

How on earth do you find these stocks anyway? Do you sacrifice a goat to the devil or something?

[No One]

1 minute ago, Eventually Right said:

The speed at which you made that meme is impressive. Kudos

[Funn3r]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

That could be a heck of a gamble for the brave with potential to lose everything put down or make a ton.

I read all the wording on the page below 3 times. It's very specific. Like they know something. It's damn tempting for me. I have a little dough spare to flutter.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-gb0032164732

I am slightly miffed with JEMA. I bought JPM Russian Securities last summer, wanting exposure to Russia which I think will come good once Ukraine is settled. It promptly dropped 12% in value but I held on to it. 

Now "subject to shareholder approval" (although nobody asked me) they decided to make it instead an EMEA thing with its priority as Saudi. 

I'll keep it as I'm not against middle east, also it's going back up and I am now only 4% down, but I am surprised they are allowed to get away with this.  It's like subscribing to pornhub then they tell you oh we've changed it now to mumsnet.

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

In December I did a spray and pray from shares in this thread.  Looking healthy so far:

Only £500 in each, to test the water.  The past few years I’ve only really invested in funds (LifeStrategy 100 or FTSE Global All Cap) but gives me confidence to invest more from monthly income now.

 

HMY your top performer ,you have to bare your chest blindfolded and fall back into a grave with brothers looking on or own HMY to get into the basement 

[Long time lurking]

3 hours ago, Plan-b said:

@Long time lurking So a euro-5 (non ad blue) Diesel with a DPF delete will pass an MOT emissions test using the procedure you outlined above?  

Yes but it would probably pass without it if the injectors were in goog nick as it's only a soot particle test but the dpf will need maping out or the warning light removed on most cars but not all especially so early euro five as regeneration is measured and initiated by a difference in pressure pre and post DPF some early models never threw a code on the low side just higher pre dpf to post, so it would not result in the dpf light coming on 

You can also fool the ECU by putting the right sized resistor on each sensor

Edited January 6, 2023 by Long time lurking

[BurntBread]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

HMY your top performer ,you have to bare your chest blindfolded and fall back into a grave with brothers looking on or own HMY to get into the basement 

I got a bit confused with the stock ticker, so when everyone at work was sending emails this week containing HNY, I started replying, "cheers: got mine already thanks!"

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yes but it would probably pass without it if the injectors were in goog nick as it's only a soot particle test but the dpf will need maping out or the warning light removed on most cars but not all especially so early euro five as regeneration is measured and initiated by a difference in pressure pre and post DPF some early models never threw a code on the low side just higher pre dpf to post, so it would not result in the dpf light coming on 

You can also fool the ECU by putting the right sized resistor on each sensor

I took the warning lights off outside the test centre every year with my little handheld.They didnt used to come back on for around 5 miles so long enough easily for the test.I used run the tank down to nearly empty and put the additive cleaner in,drive a mile then leave it sat in fuel system and injectors over night.Next morning go and put just under half a tank in and blast it for 10 miles.Never been anywhere near a fail on my PUGS 

[Long time lurking]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I took the warning lights off outside the test centre every year with my little handheld.They didnt used to come back on for around 5 miles so long enough easily for the test.I used run the tank down to nearly empty and put the additive cleaner in,drive a mile then leave it sat in fuel system and injectors over night.Next morning go and put just under half a tank in and blast it for 10 miles.Never been anywhere near a fail on my PUGS 

The additives won't do nothing when it comes to a blocked dpf but yes it takes a few miles on older cars for the ECU to flag a code the chances are there's nowt wrong with the dpf just the sensors which would have to be a itermitant fault as the dpf has to regen at some point to carry on functioning 

The biggest rip of of the lot are BMW as you can't do a forced regen when stationary most give up at that point but BMW require the car to be moving so you have to have one person driving and another initiating  the regen via OBD2

Edited January 6, 2023 by Long time lurking

[PETR4]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Hmm... That JEMA Trust (the old JPM Russian securities trust) is apparently paying 27% divi, and trading at 95% discount to nav.!!!             However those are HL stats so guessing are not to be taken as accurate?

The top listed holding at 89% is: JPM GPB liquidity LVNAV X (dist).   Does anyone know what that means?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/j/jpmorgan-emerging-europe,-middle-east-and-afr

 

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/institutional/products/jpm-gbp-liquidity-lvnav-x-acc-lu1873130667

It is this. Have a look and i'll try to answer any questions you have on it.

[MightyTharg]

5 hours ago, No One said:

I agree crypto is worthless but don't agree that it does not have an effect on the economy.
Crypto is disinflationary because spare savings are being used to buy tulips

Doesn’t the money just go to the tulip/bitcoin sellers, making in neutral?

The lack of food production in both cases would be the main effect (inflationary), through the loss of agricultural land or fuel/fertilizer because of producing the tulips/bitcoin. 

I read that the tulip mania was profitable in the long run (the Netherlands sell a lot of tulips each year). Can’t see how the bitcoins will be profitable in the long run unless they eventually disintermediate the banks and end the Fed.

[King Penda]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I took the warning lights off outside the test centre every year with my little handheld.They didnt used to come back on for around 5 miles so long enough easily for the test.I used run the tank down to nearly empty and put the additive cleaner in,drive a mile then leave it sat in fuel system and injectors over night.Next morning go and put just under half a tank in and blast it for 10 miles.Never been anywhere near a fail on my PUGS 

My brother in law does mots

[belfastchild]

3 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

I sold off some stuff this morning, so probably.

Yeah did the same, sold out of repsol, horizonte and a few other small ones this morning. Bought more ishares em fund mentioned and some more 91. Bought some more VOD during the week, loss doesnt look so bad now ;-)

Only down now in Poly, vod, tef and evraz.

Tempted to get rid of my shell holding, as Im up almost 120% on that and thats a lot of years of divis, even at the 8-9% Im getting from it due to the price I paid. Would be gambling on a crash though. The ones I did sell had turned either a profit I couldnt refuse or enough of a profit (20-30%) to help consolidate those small positions down into regular divi payers without tax withholding.

I expect things to go higher now ;-) It is getting interesting though and Im happy to take some profits and not look back and look at different areas. I notice this morning that a price of a monster box of brits are now twice the price I paid for my first box.

[MrXxxx]

Sorry a bit off topic but I thought I would post this as I know it's 'very dear tom most of our hearts':

 

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/21116780.aldi-tesco-co-op-sainsburys-best-time-get-reduced-food/

https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/shopping-deals/time-tesco-ms-sainsburys-co-25806026

https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/what-time-tesco-ms-sainsburys-6355171

 

Happy shopping....and don't forget the Cattle prod [as well as the shopping bags] for those others who think its a scrum! :-)))

[SpectrumFX]

6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Yeah did the same, sold out of repsol, horizonte and a few other small ones this morning. Bought more ishares em fund mentioned and some more 91. Bought some more VOD during the week, loss doesnt look so bad now ;-)

Only down now in Poly, vod, tef and evraz.

Tempted to get rid of my shell holding, as Im up almost 120% on that and thats a lot of years of divis, even at the 8-9% Im getting from it due to the price I paid. Would be gambling on a crash though. The ones I did sell had turned either a profit I couldnt refuse or enough of a profit (20-30%) to help consolidate those small positions down into regular divi payers without tax withholding.

I expect things to go higher now ;-) It is getting interesting though and Im happy to take some profits and not look back and look at different areas. I notice this morning that a price of a monster box of brits are now twice the price I paid for my first box.

I sold off a slice GDXJ, and put some money into EM funds.

I'm trying to be less of a knob, and to have a target portfolio with percentage allocations that I rebalance when they get out of whack.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Poly's up 10% though, so that's cheered me up.

We've got a widowmaker trade in poly at around 265.Sadly took a 100% hit in Petropavloask and Evraz lsot at sea. Looks like tlaks must be ongoing @Onsamui

In otehr news,the insto moeny keeps flwoing into PM miners.Looking to day reassuring to see the big boys like Newmont and Newcrest getting bid up.I thought we'd timed newcrest well geting in at $14.5 or so only to wathc it hit $10.50...

Trick here is not to sell too early-remember some clipping BP at £3.

In the options we've took some 100% losses in oct/nov but laddered in acorss through to mar/jun 23,screen was totally red at the start of dec.Lets hope it runs some more

does very much look like DH melt up theory was near the moeny(I dont think we'll see a new all time high on S&P tho) but defo a peak too short into the BK

[Pip321]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

We've got a widowmaker trade in poly at around 265.Sadly took a 100% hit in Petropavloask and Evraz lsot at sea. Looks like tlaks must be ongoing @Onsamui

In otehr news,the insto moeny keeps flwoing into PM miners.Looking to day reassuring to see the big boys like Newmont and Newcrest getting bid up.I thought we'd timed newcrest well geting in at $14.5 or so only to wathc it hit $10.50...

Trick here is not to sell too early-remember some clipping BP at £3.

In the options we've took some 100% losses in oct/nov but laddered in acorss through to mar/jun 23,screen was totally red at the start of dec.Lets hope it runs some more

does very much look like DH melt up theory was near the moeny(I dont think we'll see a new all time high on S&P tho) but defo a peak too short into the BK

I sold out far too early on numerous shares (Rio, Fres, HoC) and also didn’t buy big enough.

So the small amount I am holding onto I am now keeping and happy to let them fall back (in which case I buy more) rather than lose out. Effectively I am risking a much smaller % of my overall assets but trying to squeeze out as much return as possible.

If/when a BK arrives then all bets are off and I go all in.

GJGB up 30% and Blackrock Gold up 28%….even my recent BT and Vod nudged up a tweak. 👍🏻

[Red Debt Redemption]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

was looking at simple newer cars last night strangely enough, theres really only 1 manufacturer who hasnt gone completely mad with electrics and small turbo engines that will probably blow up just as warranty expires, i think the yanks understand this or dont seem as blinded by getting 200bhp out of 1.2L. That seems to be mazda by the way - mazda petrols.

Suzuki also, some low tax pre 2017 think they've went turbo now though

[Bobthebuilder]

38 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I sold off a slice GDXJ

I am getting tempted to do that, bought a large in September rather than individual shares like last time.

Spent most of today with my finger above the sell button with Rolls Royce, many market types saying 1.10+, but I am happy at current price. Hate the no divi, the funds will be better somewhere else.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

I notice this morning that a price of a monster box of brits are now twice the price I paid for my first box.

Au or Ag?

[Red Debt Redemption]

7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

That could be a heck of a gamble for the brave with potential to lose everything put down or make a ton.

I read all the wording on the page below 3 times. It's very specific. Like they know something. It's damn tempting for me. I have a little dough spare to flutter.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/products/jpmorgan-emerging-europe-middle-east-africa-securities-plc-gb0032164732

You have to do a little test to buy on HL

 

So I heard. 

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

I did a spray and pray

 

4 hours ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

The past few years I’ve only really invested

So question for the Dosbods hive mind...when does investing become gambling? :-)))