Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Theft of assets is my main worry and changing of rules.UK government has nowhere to turn now for money from income etc,so they will go after assets.I suspect they will do something on pensions,but not sure what.From what iv seen it looks like they will try to take everything before they deal with bennies and the public sector pensions.

 

Somebody, somewhere quoted an article where current/former head of civil service was inferring that the private sector can 'force people to work' but the public sector can't because its too hard to dismiss anyone.

I thought the term 'force' was a bid deluded of the 'mandarin'.

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Wealth, land and dividend taxes. They are going to shake that boomer tree to pay for the bennie increases.

Most likely, I am fascinated by ther proposal for a one-off tax that raises money every year. How would that work? (I know how, it wouldn't be a one off)

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I thought the term 'force' was a bid deluded of the 'mandarin'.

It reflects the worldview IMO. The civil service does whatever it wants, and the idea of having policy and goals set for them by an employer is this barbarous imposition in their eyes. This will also be how they justify accusing any Minister that stands up to them of bullying.

[desertorchid]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

JMHLY, listed in HK, the original Jardine Matheson of Opium Wars fame, now they run hotels, car dealerships and supermarkets. It's the supermarkets that interest me, ten years ago when I was last out that way all the supermarkets in Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were owned by Jardines. There's a lot of risk with HK but while trying to think of a way to play Indonesia it seems logical to me that if they get richer they'll be using the supermarket more.

48 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

 

A more direct play on the supermarkets is Dairy Farm International:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/D01.SI/

Spun off from Jardines and includes a wide range of convenience stores/ Supermarkets across the region. Starting to show some life in it again and may have bottomed. Listed in Singapore.

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Most likely, I am fascinated by ther proposal for a one-off tax that raises money every year. How would that work? (I know how, it wouldn't be a one off)

The problem with 'wealth' is defining it and administering the system that 'judges it'.

[Noallegiance]

Personal anecdote #3

I'm noticing more people chuffing actual fags. Not those pretend fruity cloud things.

[Calcutta]

18 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

 

A more direct play on the supermarkets is Dairy Farm International:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/D01.SI/

Spun off from Jardines and includes a wide range of convenience stores/ Supermarkets across the region. Starting to show some life in it again and may have bottomed. Listed in Singapore.

Top work. I had it my head Jardines was the way to buy DFI.

Can't see how I read this thread from TOS, made my money on the oil but still ended up going rogue and bagholding an airline with a recession coming. Bloody idiot.

 

[Cattle Prod]

53 minutes ago, wherebee said:

My biggest fear in the BK now is:

1 - collapse of brokers.  we know what happened with MF global - clients in the green made good shit investors.

2 - government theft of assets - the western governments have shown their hand in the past 2 years.  Any and all assets can be 'taxed' or 'frozen' if they can think of some bullshit excuse.

I didn't, my jaw hit the floor when I read your post. Can you please provide a reference to where clients in the green made good shit investors?

From a quick Google search

- Public investors were made 100% whole

- MF Global were trading their own book, and stole client funds when their bets went south.

- I didn't see that anyone went to jail for this, which is a worrying moral hazard.

- This happened under the SEC, which is a much stronger regulator than the clowns in the UK (who I have had some experience with. Think of the token regulator in the Wolf of Wall Street). 

- I know that bail ins are legislated for in the EU. Since the UK hasn't rolled back EU regulations, are there bail ins in UK legislation? Any lawyers out there?

This is why I pay the inflated share dealing fees at HL. As DB advised, go with size to mitigate this risk. Go where the polos and middle England have their money.

Has anyone forensically gone through the HL accounts for evidence of them trading their own book? Any accountants out there.

It doesn't seem to have been a secret that MF Global traded on their own account, as well as clients, like Goldman etc does. Anyone who puts their money with such a conflict of interest needs their head examined.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Same here.I got cancer at 29,told i had 15% chance.Beat that then was really torn.I was building capital fast then,good job for up here about £32k in 2000,the time when i would say i was working roadmaps well,trained.However i chose to take redundancy and not work for 5 years.I sold some investments and paid my mortgage off.I would of made 10x more on those investments than i have on my house,but wouldnt do it different.Best choice i ever made.I had 5 fantastic years ,the most free of my life.I used to pull women online based on places i hadnt visited,and off i went in the car.100+ in 5 years average of one every three weeks   .I realised then i wasnt like most people and had to live on my terms forever or id go nuts,so started to look at my investing different,i looked at the income producing side of it and a baseline i needed to be free.Once i got that when i went back to working,but never cared about the jobs or companies,just how it paid me while i built out my income producing investments .Last year i got double in dividends than my highest salaried year ever,and all tax free.Its been a crazy journey with some really rough times.

Thanks, found this very helpful. I the last couple of years I made the decision to 'change tack' but have found it difficult to know if I was doing the right thing, especially when society/the norm are completely the opposite...its good to know I am not the only person to think this way.

[Joncrete Cungle]

34 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I didn't, my jaw hit the floor when I read your post. Can you please provide a reference to where clients in the green made good shit investors?

From a quick Google search

- Public investors were made 100% whole

- MF Global were trading their own book, and stole client funds when their bets went south.

- I didn't see that anyone went to jail for this, which is a worrying moral hazard.

- This happened under the SEC, which is a much stronger regulator than the clowns in the UK (who I have had some experience with. Think of the token regulator in the Wolf of Wall Street). 

- I know that bail ins are legislated for in the EU. Since the UK hasn't rolled back EU regulations, are there bail ins in UK legislation? Any lawyers out there?

This is why I pay the inflated share dealing fees at HL. As DB advised, go with size to mitigate this risk. Go where the polos and middle England have their money.

Has anyone forensically gone through the HL accounts for evidence of them trading their own book? Any accountants out there.

It doesn't seem to have been a secret that MF Global traded on their own account, as well as clients, like Goldman etc does. Anyone who puts their money with such a conflict of interest needs their head examined.

Bank Recovery and Resolution Order 2014

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2014/3329/article/21/made

Banking Act 2009

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2009/1/section/12A

Bank of England

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/freedom-of-information/2021/questions-about-bail-in-and-customer-deposits

Quote

A key benefit of bail-in is to ensure that large banks can fail in an orderly way: continuing to provide key activities for the economy whilst losses are imposed on a failed bank’s shareholders and creditors, rather than depositors and taxpayers.

Deposits that are protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (‘FSCS’) are legally excluded from bail-in. This generally includes deposits up to the amount of £85,000 per eligible person (but please see information on the FSCS website on for more information on which depositors and firms are covered by FSCS protection Opens in a new window). This means that depositors who are fully protected by the FSCS will not lose money in a bail-in (or any other kind of bank failure).

With respect to depositors whose deposits are not fully protected by the FSCS, bail-in would be applied in accordance with the insolvency creditor hierarchy. This sets out the order in which shareholders, creditors and depositors of a company would receive recoveries should a bank be placed into an insolvency process (also referred to commonly as a ‘liquidation’).

In line with the creditor hierarchy, deposits not protected by the FSCS would only be subject to bail-in if losses are so high that subjecting all of the shareholders and a number of debt-holders to bail-in would not be sufficient (for further detail see page 19 of the Executing-bail-in-an-operational-guide-from-the-Bank-of-England Opens in a new window). This is because of the preference in the creditor hierarchy from which certain deposits, including those of retail depositors, benefit.

, whilst any holder of shares in a bank may suffer losses in respect of those shares in bail-in, any deposits they may have with that bank would be subject to the levels of protection described above.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Joncrete Cungle

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

My biggest fear in the BK now is:

1 - collapse of brokers.  we know what happened with MF global - clients in the green made good shit investors.

2 - government theft of assets - the western governments have shown their hand in the past 2 years.  Any and all assets can be 'taxed' or 'frozen' if they can think of some bullshit excuse.

 

 

So the answer is diversification...not just in your stock picks but by:

1. Having several brokers.

2. Several asset groups.

3. and if you can basing your capital/banking in several countries.

This way if one 'company' within any of these factors fails you are not completely wiped out. OK, there is a little additional cost involved but look on this as an insurance premium that you have to pay for the added security.

Edited January 7, 2023 by MrXxxx

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

The problem with 'wealth' is defining it and administering the system that 'judges it'.

it's the same play as the lead up to the french revolution.  In a protected class?  no taxes for you, fill yer boots.  Everyone else?  They'll tax your shit and starve you whilst they laugh.

Until Madame comes out to play.

[Chewing Grass]

Well lets refresh part 5 with the Hyudai Tucson 48 month lease benchmark.

This is where we were up to.

Absolute cheapest lease was £391 before Xmas, its still there but the average of 9 identical spec deals is now £459.

 

https://leasing.com/car-leasing/hyundai/tucson/estate/1-6-tgdi-48v-mhd-premium-5dr-2wd-dct/?term=47&mileage=10000&upfront=1&sort=total

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Wealth, land and dividend taxes. They are going to shake that boomer tree to pay for the bennie increases.

https://labourlist.org/2021/12/why-the-government-should-equalise-tax-on-dividend-and-ordinary-income/?amp

https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/12081_19-Land-for-the-Many.pdf

The more articles I see like this, the more I feel that I am being 'milked', and how I might be better spreading resources across several countries i.e. have a cheap bolt-hole in the UK but do the majority of spending/investing somewhere else....I know millionaires  have done this for decades but when someone with a modest level of capital is considering it, it shows what a sorry state the UK is in/become :-(

[One percent]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

The problem with 'wealth' is defining it and administering the system that 'judges it'.

And also making sure your mates aren’t paying it.  

[wherebee]

48 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I didn't, my jaw hit the floor when I read your post. Can you please provide a reference to where clients in the green made good shit investors?

From a quick Google search

- Public investors were made 100% whole

- MF Global were trading their own book, and stole client funds when their bets went south.

- I didn't see that anyone went to jail for this, which is a worrying moral hazard.

- This happened under the SEC, which is a much stronger regulator than the clowns in the UK (who I have had some experience with. Think of the token regulator in the Wolf of Wall Street). 

- I know that bail ins are legislated for in the EU. Since the UK hasn't rolled back EU regulations, are there bail ins in UK legislation? Any lawyers out there?

This is why I pay the inflated share dealing fees at HL. As DB advised, go with size to mitigate this risk. Go where the polos and middle England have their money.

Has anyone forensically gone through the HL accounts for evidence of them trading their own book? Any accountants out there.

It doesn't seem to have been a secret that MF Global traded on their own account, as well as clients, like Goldman etc does. Anyone who puts their money with such a conflict of interest needs their head examined.

@Cattle Prod you know what, I can't find anything online now but I remember clearly that the administrators found the records so fucked up that they couldn't work out - so they said - which investor owned what.  So they just pooled everything and split it up, not based on what the actual holdings were but some other measure (I think it may have been known holdings value at YYY date, which was confirmable).  Which, I remember, meant some people lost out and some made good on what were underwater positions.

The fact I can't find anything about the clusterfuck of asset division for investors down the road is in itself a red flag...!

 

And if you think the SEC is a strong regulator, go watch the Big Short again.  Read this first.

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/03/did-sec-facilitate-corzines-fraud-at-mf.html

[Cattle Prod]

30 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Bank Recovery and Resolution Order 2014

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2014/3329/article/21/made

Banking Act 2009

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2009/1/section/12A

Bank of England

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/freedom-of-information/2021/questions-about-bail-in-and-customer-deposits

Thanks JC, I'll have a good read of that. Seems to be directed at cash deposits though, it might be hard to bail in an invested asset especially in a SIPP though, then you're into property theft etc. what do you think? 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[Cattle Prod]

12 minutes ago, wherebee said:

@Cattle Prod you know what, I can't find anything online now but I remember clearly that the administrators found the records so fucked up that they couldn't work out - so they said - which investor owned what.  So they just pooled everything and split it up, not based on what the actual holdings were but some other measure (I think it may have been known holdings value at YYY date, which was confirmable).  Which, I remember, meant some people lost out and some made good on what were underwater positions.

The fact I can't find anything about the clusterfuck of asset division for investors down the road is in itself a red flag...!

 

And if you think the SEC is a strong regulator, go watch the Big Short again.  Read this first.

https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/03/did-sec-facilitate-corzines-fraud-at-mf.html

No, I said they are stronger than the UK clowns, I noted that no one at MF got jailed for blatant theft. Tallest dwarf. It's pretty hard to wipe something from the internet, if anyone comes up with evidence of this I think it's of benefit to the whole thread.

I can see how an administrator could struggle to untangle things. I've already related here how one of the biggest UK pension providers in the UK managed to screw up my funds in the March 2020 crash. They admitted liability straight away, so I took it as a free option till they made me whole once they'd figured out their fuck up. Unbelievably, it took them 6 months or , by which time the funds they'd accidentally kicked me out of had gone up by tens of thousands, which they paid me. 

I don't think they'd have paid me if tens of thousands of people had the same problem at the same time. Apparently not many people traded single shares on their shitty platform, and I broke it. Yeah, right.

[Bricormortis]

In the month to 1st Dec, ( sorry I dont have more up to date info ) 6 of the 10 best performing ETFs  were all emerging markets focused, and in the same time period all 10 of the best performing Investment Trusts were China focused, top performer Templeton China w acc eur 29% up in that period.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Bricormortis

[Pip321]

30 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So the answer is diversification...not just in your stock picks but by:

1. Having several brokers.

2. Several asset groups.

3. and if you can basing your capital/banking in several countries.

This way if one 'company' within any of these factors fails you are not completely wiped out. OK, there is a little additional cost involved but look on this as an insurance premium that you have to pay for the added security.

This just sparked a reminder and a tip for others…..I crystallised my Pru SIPP and took my 25% a few years ago. However that now means I can’t split the remaining balance ie partially transfer it. So it is now one pot and even if I move it, then it needs to stay in one new whole pot. Wish I had know that before because of the amount I would certainly have split it between several providers.

Just another unrelated tip which I am looking at possible new SIPP providers. Most will know but HL is relatively expensive if you wish to hold funds ie 0.45%. (Albeit capped etc)

However further digging shows many of the funds I am looking at offer HL discounts on their own management charges. The Abdn Latin America saving is 0.54% which means it smashes my other provider overall for holding that fund, because the Pru offers no discount. Appreciate generally funds are expensive and EFTs probably better….but all I mean is when consider if/buts in the future it was an interesting ‘Pro’ for using HL. 

[wherebee]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No, I said they are stronger than the UK clowns, I noted that no one at MF got jailed for blatant theft. Tallest dwarf. It's pretty hard to wipe something from the internet, if anyone comes up with evidence of this I think it's of benefit to the whole thread.

I can see how an administrator could struggle to untangle things. I've already related here how one of the biggest UK pension providers in the UK managed to screw up my funds in the March 2020 crash. They admitted liability straight away, so I took it as a free option till they made me whole once they'd figured out their fuck up. Unbelievably, it took them 6 months or , by which time the funds they'd accidentally kicked me out of had gone up by tens of thousands, which they paid me. 

I don't think they'd have paid me if tens of thousands of people had the same problem at the same time. Apparently not many people traded single shares on their shitty platform, and I broke it. Yeah, right.

Had more of a look - all I can find is that for the US arm, the administrators paid out 100% of 'approved' claims.  Duh.  Of course, that means all 'rejected' claims are not counted.

I also found an example where two MF global customers were claiming they had documentation for the same gold bar in storage via MF global that they both claimed they should be compensated for.  How did the administrators settle that one?

I find it amazing for such a huge scandal, there is very little detail on how investors were made good.  Maybe that's the point...

 

[Bricormortis]

There was some posters asking for middle east investment possibilities recently. 

Gulf Investment Fund ord GIF might be worth your consideration 3.7% divi.very decent performance. Focus is on Quatar. LNG.

[Virgil Caine]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

The problem with 'wealth' is defining it and administering the system that 'judges it'.

Indeed. In theory all current capital taxes such as IHT are taxes on wealth yet only certain people seem to end up paying them. If you want to know where the government is looking to tax people you need to examine where HMRC are investing their money in technology. George Osborne proposed a new IHT computer system when he was Chancellor but as far as I can determine it was never delivered. Any wealth tax would require legislation and new IT systems. Ironically, the latter actually make the introduction of new taxes a more drawn out process than in the past when all they did was write an assessment and collection process and print a lot of new tax return forms 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Virgil Caine

[Errol]

Does anyone hold SPDR® MSCI Europe Communication Services UCITS ETF (TELE)? It seems to have a preponderance of Deutsche Telekom, but also has most of the other companies.

https://www.ssga.com/uk/en_gb/institutional/etfs/funds/spdr-msci-europe-communication-services-ucits-etf-stt-fp

 

[Axeman123]

24 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

In the month to 1st Dec, ( sorry I dont have more up to date info ) 6 of the 10 best performing ETFs were emerging markets, and in the same time period all 10 of the best performing Investment Trusts were China focused, top performer Templeton China w acc eur 29% up in that period.

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/t/templeton-china-w-gbp-accumulation

The perfomance box on the right gives some context to that, still nice to see it off the lows.