Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Cattle Prod]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

One of my mates always got caught smoking at school and the teacher always wacked a cup off his head.We found one fag that was about 3 foot long where it hadnt been cut.My mate stood facing away and said go and tell Ellis im smoking.Teacher walked around the corner could just see smoke as his back to teacher,he shouted "Black",the lad turned around with the 3 foot fag in his mouth.Old Ellis couldnt crack him,he was too busy laughing 

Yeah we found those with filters on both ends,but ours tended to be where the filter was half or three quarters of the fag,they dumped millions of them.We were really skint then,but we had decent money in our pockets selling the baccy.We used to swap bags to the corner shop and he used to give us 24 pack cases of McEwans Lager and LCL Pils.

 

😅 Classic old school teacher. That’s a nice little black economy going on there, I’d have taken your hands off for beer for reject fags. Problem we had was the IRA controlled the black market for cigarettes back then, I thought I was a dead man. Or dead child, more accurately, thanks Dad 🙄

Edit btw my old dear used to smoke Rothmans probably came from your factory. Shes somehow still alive, she gave them up a while ago. She smokes cigars now instead. Not joking, she doesn’t consider it smoking despite inhaling. We call her ‘Keith Richards’

Edited April 27, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[invalid]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They are dumbing it down basically, they are saying lower pressure that used to be classed as unsafe is now classed as safe.

At 20 millibar as you're gas boiler is working now, your heating is say 20c, at 18 millibar it will drop to 19c.

Simply you have less dense energy at your disposal.

It seems to me they are saying in the future we will limit you're gas use, rationing as it were.

 

Surely the boiler will just run for longer?

Other than the boiler running for longer, I can't see what difference it will make?

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

Peter Hitchen's says the Queen ignored her coronation vows (parts of the vows state that no foreign state is to have power over Britain) by not resisting us joining the common market. 

In that era the monarchy was fighting for survival, and in no place to take that fight on IMO. You could argue that we would be even further down the post-modernist rabbit hole without the royal family. All manner of fine buildings that are used for the ceremonial stuff would likely have been in the firing line too in that scenario.

I am not a monarchist, but I am starting to see some utility in the institution in my 40s.

[One percent]

10 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

In that era the monarchy was fighting for survival, and in no place to take that fight on IMO. You could argue that we would be even further down the post-modernist rabbit hole without the royal family. All manner of fine buildings that are used for the ceremonial stuff would likely have been in the firing line too in that scenario.

I am not a monarchist, but I am starting to see some utility in the institution in my 40s.

With charlie, Savile’s best mate at the helm?   

[Cattle Prod]

I reckon this is on the back of Biden announcing he’s going to run again. Open goal for 4 more years! Chevron have open comms with the US DoD btw, as any large o&g company does, it’ll be interesting to watch this…

 

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, One percent said:

With charlie, Savile’s best mate at the helm?   

I said the institution, not the new king. He is probably the last monarch IMO, unless he drops dead inside five years.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

I said the institution, not the new king. He is probably the last monarch IMO, unless he drops dead inside five years.

Looking at the state of his fingers, he probably will wtf is wrong there?  

[Long time lurking]

On 24/04/2023 at 20:45, Bobthebuilder said:

OK, time for me to fess up, I'm not on a nice sunny cruise but re doing my gas exams in rainy Sarf London, got some news from the coal face for ya chaps. Gas safe industry big wigs have said Hydrogen mix into the gas supply probably is never going to happen, to expensive, to corrosive, and the pipe network is just not fit for the purpose. Way to dangerous a product to produce, store and pump around a network that is not up to the job. The instructor was telling a 22 year old gas lad that he will have a job for life with natural gas, sell Hydrogen buy oillies.

To be honest anyone with any basic knowledge of chemistry will have worked that out from word go ,it`s way to volatile to be used domestically  

Add a bit of oxy 

 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

In the mean time if you want to read it now look in 'The Library' thread where you will find a free PDF.

Thanks for putting it there as I read it..very interesting and it does make sense.. inflation and taxation and big changes in a couple of generations does not seem so unlikely..or maybe the grandkids will not be for the turning..

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

Surely the boiler will just run for longer?

Other than the boiler running for longer, I can't see what difference it will make?

 

Its a 5% reduction in power, like reducing your cars engine power by 5% then expecting it to still go as fast.

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

To be honest anyone with any basic knowledge of chemistry will have worked that out from word go ,it`s way to volatile to be used domestically  

Add a bit of oxy 

 

You don't even need Hydrogen or gas, water can be explosive in a sealed system if it boils. (water increases 1600% in volume when it starts to boil).

 

[Axeman123]

Headline: Blow for Biden as US economy slows sharply and recession threat grows

Quote

The US economy is already in recession, economists have warned after official figures revealed activity slowed sharply at the start of this year, dealing a blow to Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.

The world's biggest economy grew at an annualised pace of 1.1pc in the first three months of the year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This compares with growth of 2.6pc in the final quarter of 2022 and falls short of economists' expectations for 2pc growth.

While the rise in gross domestic product (GDP) was driven by robust consumer spending, it also suggests nine consecutive interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve are beginning to drag on growth.

President Biden has announced he will run for re-election in 2024, this week touting his efforts to revive the American economy after the pandemic.

But Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said activity at the start of the year was boosted by one-off factors including the warmer weather and a 8.7pc one-off cost of living adjustment to benefits.

He added that a sharp slowdown in business activity in the coming months would hit the economy, while slower hiring “was likely to make people nervous”, and put a brake on spending.

“In short, the economy barely grew in the first quarter, but it is likely to shrink outright in Q2 and Q3,” Mr Shepherdson said. “Welcome to the recession.”

If the recession will be determined to have officially started a month ago, then George Gammon's gold price prediction from the video the other day gets turned on its head.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/blow-biden-us-economy-slows-174824540.html

[Long time lurking]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You don't even need Hydrogen or gas, water can be explosive in a sealed system if it boils. (water increases 1600% in volume when it starts to boil).

 

You want to see it at 2000psi and 600 deegres C which is the first stage of a turbine in a PowerStation 

I have heard a leak at those values but there is no way you can see 

The another to witness is molten steel o n water ,it splits it into oxygen and hydrogen the bang from a small spill is unbelievable 

 

A big one here 

 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Lightscribe]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Fhigh-earners-bank-of-england-income-tax-rate-drop%2F
 

The epitome of why this country is in the schizer

In last year’s Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt announced that the threshold for the top rate of income tax was to be cut from £150,000 to £125,140. Since April 6, some 232,000 workers have found themselves paying the 45p rate for the first time. This week, Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has warned that rising prices have made the whole country poorer and that attempts to bid up wages were merely prolonging the agony. We spoke to three high earners to find out how all of this has impacted them and their families.
 

When I saw the news that the point at which the 45p income tax rate kicks in is falling to £125,140, I had to laugh. By a whisker, it raises me into the lofty realms of the country’s wealthy elite – which is a very long way indeed from how I feel.

I may earn good money in my senior job in recruitment, but the moment it hits my account, that money immediately disappears. It certainly doesn’t go on extravagances. I get my hair cut and coloured every three months, but my clothes are high street and our weekly shop is from Asda. We take one bucket-and-spade family holiday a year, last year it was in Tenerife – lovely for the children, but hardly the Maldives.

What devours my money at a terrifying rate is bills: mortgage, childcare, school fees, travel, gas and electricity… the list goes on. Although we can just about pay them now, I’m scared we’re one mortgage hike from living totally beyond our means.

We moved out of London four years ago to buy our four-bedroom house in Surrey for £1.3 million, for which we borrowed £500,000. Our repayments are over £2,000 per month, which my husband and I split between us. He is a graphic designer who earns around £50,000, which means I pay the lion’s share of the rest of our outgoings.

I don’t resent him for earning less, as he’s contributed far more than his share of nursery pick-ups and days when he can’t work because one of the children is ill. But it means that our biggest bills, for our daughter and son, fall to me, and they are astronomical. Our five-year-old daughter is at a private school, which costs around £15,000 a year. All that buys is her education from 9.15am to 3.15pm during term-time – if we need her to stay later, which we often do, it’s almost £10 extra per hour, with an additional £12.50 for dinner: this usually costs us well over £100 per week. Then there are holiday clubs, extra-curricular activities and school trips.

It was me who wanted her to have a private education, like me, so I only have myself to blame for the cost. I often wonder whether we’re doing the right thing, because compared to most of her classmates’ parents, we’re positively poor. They’re hedge fund managers with incredibly glamorous wives who don’t work; when I meet them at school events, it’s clear we inhabit different worlds. I worry that in the long-run we might be taking a path which makes our children feel inferior.

What’s absolutely not my fault, though, is the ludicrous sum I pay for my son to go to nursery full-time: around £1,800 per month, which is more than my daughter’s school fees. From September, after he turns three, we’ll get 15 hours of nursery a week for free but only for 38 weeks of the year, as my salary means we don’t qualify for 30. I understand why those who earn less should receive more help, but I admit that when I pay so much in tax and get so little back it feels like a kick in the teeth.

The other bills stack up, too. I pay £800 per month into my pension; energy bills are now around £300 per month; council tax is £255. Travelling by train into London to go to the office two or three days a week costs hundreds more every month. With food prices that constantly go up, phone, broadband, subscriptions for Netflix and Disney+ – I feel overwhelmed by it all.

Recently, we’ve been looking for ways to economise because having nothing left at the end of the month makes me anxious and stressed. We gave up our cleaner last year to save £45 a week and now do the cleaning ourselves. I no longer have a gym membership. We’re now considering moving up north, where I’m originally from, in the hope that we could buy a less expensive house and enjoy a better lifestyle in return for all our hard work.

Is £125k enough to live comfortably? Well, in London it’s definitely not. I’m in banking, an industry famous for its generous salaries, and I’m considered to be in the top 2 per cent of earners in this country but quite frankly, it rarely feels like that. The figures speak for themselves. If you earn a salary of £125k, you take home £75k. A quick Google search will tell you that 55 per cent of four-bed homes in London – and I’m talking greater London here, down to Croydon – are £1m or above. So on a £1m house, stamp duty is £42k. If you have an 80 per cent mortgage, not only do you need a £200k deposit – and who’s got that hanging around? – but your monthly payments will be, on the current rates, £4.5k a month, just over £50k a year. 

And then let’s move to childcare. In my case, I have two small children in nursery; the youngest, who is one, is there three days a week and the oldest, three, is there four days a week. It costs us £2.5k a month – so that’s £30k a year on childcare that’s not even full time.

The rest is simple maths: if, say, my take home pay is £75k and my mortgage is £50k and my childcare bill is £30k - that’s all my wages gone. Just wiped out. That’s before any other bills; council tax, energy, water, food, insurance, car expenses and any whisper of a holiday.

, yes, we are a dual income household: we have to be. My wife is an IT consultant and earns £65,000, which helps plug the gaps. Successive governments have created this trap where you need dual incomes to buy a house – because they’re so ridiculously expensive – but then you both have to keep on working full pelt to service the mortgage while one of your incomes just gets hoovered up by childcare.

During the pandemic my wife was made redundant and she had to do contract work for a while. So when she got pregnant with our second child, she didn’t get maternity leave pay. She was at home with our newborn and my wage didn’t cover our costs. We had to eat into our savings just to get through the months before she could go back to work and we felt comfortable leaving the baby at nursery.

And I understand that many would say we’re lucky to have savings, to have that safety net. I understand that we choose to live in London: of course we could move out to somewhere cheaper, but both my wife and I would be looking at a long and expensive commute. I never said my wage wasn’t enough to live on – but it’s sometimes hard to live comfortably.

It’s not like we spend £10k on clothes; we’re not wasting thousands on discretionary items that we could well live without, because if that were the case then we would be to blame. I’m talking about core expenses here: the home we pay for so we have a secure place to live, the childcare we need so my wife can go to work – which is her right and important – and the bills we pay so we can have heating and light. 

In my mind, there is no sane reality where someone who earns £200k and gets a £10k bonus gets taxed less on that bonus than someone who earns £100k. But that is the truth of the matter. For someone earning £100k, the marginal rate of tax is 62 per cent. How is that right?

The Government likes to squeeze the bracket of people who earn between £100k and £150k. Why? Well we’re ‘rich’ enough for there to be little public sympathy but we’re not rich enough to be globally mobile and pay for dedicated tax advice, like the Rishi Sunaks of this world.

In this country, we need to start distinguishing between earnings and wealth. Wealth – assets or inheritance – are not taxed at the level earnings are. And how can I accumulate wealth if I’m being taxed so much? Let’s be clear: if you went to state school and have no family wealth, but you worked hard to get a high-paying job, you may earn a lot but that does not necessarily equate to being wealthy. 

[Chewing Grass]

On 25/04/2023 at 18:06, Chewing Grass said:

Companies House statistics due for release on the 27th should show the biggest number of company closures on record, most small businesses and victims of government policy and global corporatisation of the sectors they used to operate in.

Well they are in and interestingly presented.

All looks swell until the last 2 bullet points.

Somehow I can't get the first 4 bullet points to add up in my head.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/incorporated-companies-in-the-united-kingdom-january-to-march-2023/incorporated-companies-in-the-united-kingdom-january-to-march-2023

[One percent]

41 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Fhigh-earners-bank-of-england-income-tax-rate-drop%2F
 

The epitome of why this country is in the schizer

In last year’s Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt announced that the threshold for the top rate of income tax was to be cut from £150,000 to £125,140. Since April 6, some 232,000 workers have found themselves paying the 45p rate for the first time. This week, Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has warned that rising prices have made the whole country poorer and that attempts to bid up wages were merely prolonging the agony. We spoke to three high earners to find out how all of this has impacted them and their families.
 

When I saw the news that the point at which the 45p income tax rate kicks in is falling to £125,140, I had to laugh. By a whisker, it raises me into the lofty realms of the country’s wealthy elite – which is a very long way indeed from how I feel.

I may earn good money in my senior job in recruitment, but the moment it hits my account, that money immediately disappears. It certainly doesn’t go on extravagances. I get my hair cut and coloured every three months, but my clothes are high street and our weekly shop is from Asda. We take one bucket-and-spade family holiday a year, last year it was in Tenerife – lovely for the children, but hardly the Maldives.

What devours my money at a terrifying rate is bills: mortgage, childcare, school fees, travel, gas and electricity… the list goes on. Although we can just about pay them now, I’m scared we’re one mortgage hike from living totally beyond our means.

We moved out of London four years ago to buy our four-bedroom house in Surrey for £1.3 million, for which we borrowed £500,000. Our repayments are over £2,000 per month, which my husband and I split between us. He is a graphic designer who earns around £50,000, which means I pay the lion’s share of the rest of our outgoings.

I don’t resent him for earning less, as he’s contributed far more than his share of nursery pick-ups and days when he can’t work because one of the children is ill. But it means that our biggest bills, for our daughter and son, fall to me, and they are astronomical. Our five-year-old daughter is at a private school, which costs around £15,000 a year. All that buys is her education from 9.15am to 3.15pm during term-time – if we need her to stay later, which we often do, it’s almost £10 extra per hour, with an additional £12.50 for dinner: this usually costs us well over £100 per week. Then there are holiday clubs, extra-curricular activities and school trips.

It was me who wanted her to have a private education, like me, so I only have myself to blame for the cost. I often wonder whether we’re doing the right thing, because compared to most of her classmates’ parents, we’re positively poor. They’re hedge fund managers with incredibly glamorous wives who don’t work; when I meet them at school events, it’s clear we inhabit different worlds. I worry that in the long-run we might be taking a path which makes our children feel inferior.

What’s absolutely not my fault, though, is the ludicrous sum I pay for my son to go to nursery full-time: around £1,800 per month, which is more than my daughter’s school fees. From September, after he turns three, we’ll get 15 hours of nursery a week for free but only for 38 weeks of the year, as my salary means we don’t qualify for 30. I understand why those who earn less should receive more help, but I admit that when I pay so much in tax and get so little back it feels like a kick in the teeth.

The other bills stack up, too. I pay £800 per month into my pension; energy bills are now around £300 per month; council tax is £255. Travelling by train into London to go to the office two or three days a week costs hundreds more every month. With food prices that constantly go up, phone, broadband, subscriptions for Netflix and Disney+ – I feel overwhelmed by it all.

Recently, we’ve been looking for ways to economise because having nothing left at the end of the month makes me anxious and stressed. We gave up our cleaner last year to save £45 a week and now do the cleaning ourselves. I no longer have a gym membership. We’re now considering moving up north, where I’m originally from, in the hope that we could buy a less expensive house and enjoy a better lifestyle in return for all our hard work.

Is £125k enough to live comfortably? Well, in London it’s definitely not. I’m in banking, an industry famous for its generous salaries, and I’m considered to be in the top 2 per cent of earners in this country but quite frankly, it rarely feels like that. The figures speak for themselves. If you earn a salary of £125k, you take home £75k. A quick Google search will tell you that 55 per cent of four-bed homes in London – and I’m talking greater London here, down to Croydon – are £1m or above. So on a £1m house, stamp duty is £42k. If you have an 80 per cent mortgage, not only do you need a £200k deposit – and who’s got that hanging around? – but your monthly payments will be, on the current rates, £4.5k a month, just over £50k a year. 

And then let’s move to childcare. In my case, I have two small children in nursery; the youngest, who is one, is there three days a week and the oldest, three, is there four days a week. It costs us £2.5k a month – so that’s £30k a year on childcare that’s not even full time.

The rest is simple maths: if, say, my take home pay is £75k and my mortgage is £50k and my childcare bill is £30k - that’s all my wages gone. Just wiped out. That’s before any other bills; council tax, energy, water, food, insurance, car expenses and any whisper of a holiday.

, yes, we are a dual income household: we have to be. My wife is an IT consultant and earns £65,000, which helps plug the gaps. Successive governments have created this trap where you need dual incomes to buy a house – because they’re so ridiculously expensive – but then you both have to keep on working full pelt to service the mortgage while one of your incomes just gets hoovered up by childcare.

During the pandemic my wife was made redundant and she had to do contract work for a while. So when she got pregnant with our second child, she didn’t get maternity leave pay. She was at home with our newborn and my wage didn’t cover our costs. We had to eat into our savings just to get through the months before she could go back to work and we felt comfortable leaving the baby at nursery.

And I understand that many would say we’re lucky to have savings, to have that safety net. I understand that we choose to live in London: of course we could move out to somewhere cheaper, but both my wife and I would be looking at a long and expensive commute. I never said my wage wasn’t enough to live on – but it’s sometimes hard to live comfortably.

It’s not like we spend £10k on clothes; we’re not wasting thousands on discretionary items that we could well live without, because if that were the case then we would be to blame. I’m talking about core expenses here: the home we pay for so we have a secure place to live, the childcare we need so my wife can go to work – which is her right and important – and the bills we pay so we can have heating and light. 

In my mind, there is no sane reality where someone who earns £200k and gets a £10k bonus gets taxed less on that bonus than someone who earns £100k. But that is the truth of the matter. For someone earning £100k, the marginal rate of tax is 62 per cent. How is that right?

The Government likes to squeeze the bracket of people who earn between £100k and £150k. Why? Well we’re ‘rich’ enough for there to be little public sympathy but we’re not rich enough to be globally mobile and pay for dedicated tax advice, like the Rishi Sunaks of this world.

In this country, we need to start distinguishing between earnings and wealth. Wealth – assets or inheritance – are not taxed at the level earnings are. And how can I accumulate wealth if I’m being taxed so much? Let’s be clear: if you went to state school and have no family wealth, but you worked hard to get a high-paying job, you may earn a lot but that does not necessarily equate to being wealthy. 

Welcome to the club love. We are all being screwed.  

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Jay said:

Thanks for putting it there as I read it..very interesting and it does make sense.. inflation and taxation and big changes in a couple of generations does not seem so unlikely..or maybe the grandkids will not be for the turning..

You're welcome...I may not be much of a financial 'Wizz kid'/offer much insight like some on here, but I do have the occasional good idea, and putting things like this [and reviews of financial books] seemed a way to make it easier to find these at a later date [rather than having to trawl through pages of other comments].

[Loki]

1 minute ago, One percent said:

Welcome to the club love. We are all being screwed.  

Would need to know how she felt about Brexit and cheap trades for work on her Surrey mansion before I decide just how small the violin I get out is

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You don't even need Hydrogen or gas, water can be explosive in a sealed system if it boils. (water increases 1600% in volume when it starts to boil).

 

...Note to self whilst watching 'Strictly', "Mmmm, must check I have switched the boiler off!"...

...on a serious note, was this only an issue with the old type hot water immersion tanks?...I assume combi boilers have sensors that would stop them starting and so to avoid this sort of thing happening.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

...Note to self whilst watching 'Strictly', "Mmmm, must check I have switched the boiler off!"...

...on a serious note, was this only an issue with the old type hot water immersion tanks?...I assume combi boilers have sensors that would stop them starting and so to avoid this sort of thing happening.

It's an old mythbusters clip according to the comments, and it could never happen like that in reality

 

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

...Note to self whilst watching 'Strictly', "Mmmm, must check I have switched the boiler off!"...

...on a serious note, was this only an issue with the old type hot water immersion tanks?...I assume combi boilers have sensors that would stop them starting and so to avoid this sort of thing happening.

Its a hot water cylinder plumbed wrong with nowhere for pressure expansion to escape. Your combi has pressure valves that would activate.

@Loki It can happen, the cylinders are designed to fail at the bottom, hence why it goes up like a rocket.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its a hot water cylinder plumbed wrong with nowhere for pressure expansion to escape. Your combi has pressure valves that would activate.

@Loki It can happen, the cylinders are designed to fail at the bottom, hence why it goes up like a rocket.

I might mount mine sideways and override the safety features (Don't like people next door)

[Loki]

This seems somewhat pertinent to the general theme @marceau  was posting about up thread

 

[CannonFodder]

 

Watch and learn

Need answers - just ring someone up and pretend to be Zelensky

 

 

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Would need to know how she felt about Brexit and cheap trades for work on her Surrey mansion before I decide just how small the violin I get out is

also how many range rovers theyve got.

I personally always spend 1.3M on shitty 2 up 2 downs in surrey, every 6 months, not to mention private schools for my 8 kids 2 of which are chinese (must slap the missus around a bit for those ones), oh hang on, im chinese so what are those other 6 kids.

Anyway, she sounds like shes living way beyond her means already, even if they moved up north theyd be in the same boat cos they wouldnt be earning what they are earning there but theyd still netflix and private school it to the MAX+.