Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[JMD]

20 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

There was a positive that I took away from the course. Boiler manufactures saying there new boilers will work perfectly well at 5 millibar (a quarter of current domestic 20 millibar pressure), shows the advancement of efficiency they are managing to achieve. Of course you cant run older boilers or gas hobs at 5 millibar, but its a glimpse of the future.

Another interesting change was working pressure at a domestic gas meter. For decades that has been a minimum of 20 millibar with a maximum drop of 1 millibar at the appliance burner, that has now been dropped to 18 millibar at the meter for the first time ever.

Interesting. Another example of letting the current technology and expertise, developed and perfected over many decades, do the green environmental heavy-lifting... It's all a waiting game for fussion that will hopefully come along eventually.       (Plus it's becoming increasingly obvious that rumours about the death of the ICE car have been exaggerated!!) 

@Bobthebuilder what could the efficiency savings of reducing the gas pressures be? Might the boilers use say 25% less gas? 

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by JMD

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Interesting. Another example of letting the current technology and expertise, developed and perfected over many decades, do the green environmental heavy-lifting... It's a waiting game for fussion that will hopefully come along eventually?!      (Plus it's becoming increasingly obvious that rumours about the death of the ICE car have been exaggerated!!) 

@Bobthebuilder what could the efficiency savings of reducing the gas pressures be? Might the boilers use say 20% less gas? 

 

The gas savings could be way more than 20%, going by what the manufactures are quoting for minimum gas pressure.

Lower pressure could not be reduced by too much on a nationwide scale due to older appliances and gas hobs which are flueless.

They could however do it house by house individually when you had a brand new lower pressure boiler fitted. They could remove your gas hob so you only have 1 flued gas appliance and reduce the pressure by up to 75% by changing the gas meter and a new lower pressure regulator.

They could start that tomorrow and call it green.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Exactly.

 

I see Ukraine flags on rural properties all over North Yorkshire. People who couldn't find Ukraine on a map are correcting people's spelling of Kiev to Kyiv. Propaganda works because 90% plus of people are cretins.

..and where were these people and their moral outrage in 2014?...probably focusing on the spec of their next mobile purchase...

...tell the uncritical thinker what to think and you have a massive force of ignorance for the minority 'thinkers' to fight against.

Edited April 28, 2023 by MrXxxx

[King Penda]

54 minutes ago, wherebee said:

in the corporate world, you'll see a very rapid trend of people using EXACTLY the same language in presentations, internal emails, etc.

It's not planned.  It's that the cunts HAVE to remain part of the pack.

Yes rainbows blm the 3 black lads that fucked up penalties for England covid save the nhs.bang pots a pans etc etc it’s a craze to be relivent

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone know what's going on with Natwest ?

Shares down 5% this morning...

https://www.ft.com/content/57ef02a7-e122-432f-a118-75b49f766ac1

[invalid]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You are correct, to prove the point I am making would involve a very long technical reply from me , witch is a bit off topic.

Your example is for a normal combi boiler in a normal 3 bed house with a normal U6 type gas meter, there is a legal limit to the internal volume of your gas meter and gas pipework before it falls out of domestic licence and into a commercial licence. I will leave it at that.

Some big houses have very big gas meters, I have seen ones as big as a washing machine,

Maybe I should have made my original post a bit more click bait like this-

THE GOVERNMENT WANT TO RATION YOUR GAS, THE AGE OF THE U6- MAXIMUM 65KW GAS METER WITH MAXIMUM 0.335 CUBIC METERS OF INTERNAL GAS PIPE SIZING WITH ALLOWANCE FOR PRESSURE LOSS WITH A MAXIMUM CAPICITY NOT EXCEEDING 16 CUBIC METERS PER HOUR  IS OVER.

 

 

 

Ok, I seem to have missed the point you were making, I thought you were implying that an attempt was being made to ration gas for domestic households, but I take it you are referring to high users and industry? 

 

 

[JMD]

20 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

In the mean time if you want to read it now look in 'The Library' thread where you will find a free PDF.

But isn't the pdf in the Library the 1997 edition of Howe's Fourth Turning book?

His new edition is published in July...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3QEQJXWDCXT7D&keywords=Neil+howe&qid=1682611381&s=books&sprefix=neil+howe%2Cstripbooks%2C527&sr=1-1

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by JMD

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

This is my point exactly, if my boiler goes from running for 3 hours a day to 4 hours a day, it makes no difference, my house will still be heated to same temperature and I will still burn the same amount of gas in a day.

Can't get my head round gas things but this sounds very much like you're saying you don't mind if the pub waters down your beer by 5% because you can still get just as pissed by drinking 5% longer.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

Ok, I seem to have missed the point you were making, I thought you were implying that an attempt was being made to ration gas for domestic households, but I take it you are referring to high users and industry? 

 

 

No, you understood completely, but its a bit more complex than your "running for longer to achieve the same result" statement. You can try it yourself, your combi will have a central heating temperature control on it, usually a knob you can turn on the front of the boiler. Try turning it down to the minimum setting, and see how warm your house is like that. You might be suprised how well it works at a lower setting. Combi boilers are very powerful to achieve instant hot water, but they have 2 modulating gas valves, one for hot water (usually around 25KW) and another for the heating (usually 12-16KW). Turning that control down is much the same as reducing gas pressure.

PS I live in a Victorian terrace with a 25KW Vaillant combi, I set my heating control on the boiler to 50c. With the thermostat on 19c is gets to temperature, if I set the thermostat to 21c, the heating is on permanently 24 hours a day with outside temperature around 10c.

[ashestoashes]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Exactly.

 

I see Ukraine flags on rural properties all over North Yorkshire. People who couldn't find Ukraine on a map are correcting people's spelling of Kiev to Kyiv. Propaganda works because 90% plus of people are cretins.

all preparation for when the BOE says we need to be 20% poorer to save Ukraine

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

all preparation for when the BOE says we need to be 20% poorer to save Ukraine

UC claimants will require 16-18 hours in week in Bakhmut trenches.

Also extendable to anyone who deosnt put their pronouns in their signature

[reformed nice guy]

17 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Well they are in and interestingly presented.

All looks swell until the last 2 bullet points.

Somehow I can't get the first 4 bullet points to add up in my head.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/incorporated-companies-in-the-united-kingdom-january-to-march-2023/incorporated-companies-in-the-united-kingdom-january-to-march-2023

Very interesting. I clicked through from that link and found this:

Individual Insolvency Statistics January to March 2023

 

1. Main messages for England and Wales

• After seasonal adjustment, the number of individual insolvencies in January to March (Q1) 2023 was 2% lower than in Q4 2022. Numbers of debt relief orders (DROs) and bankruptcies were higher, but individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs) were slightly lower. The total number of individual insolvencies was 9% lower than in Q1 2022.
• One in 408 adults (at a rate of 24.5 per 10,000 adults) entered insolvency between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2023. This is an increase from the 24.1 per 10,000 adults who entered insolvency in the 12 months ending 31 March 2022.
• During Q1 2023, there were 29,017 (seasonally adjusted) individual insolvencies, as shown in Figure 1, comprised of 20,246 IVAs, 7,034 DROs and 1,737 bankruptcies.
• There were 23,179 Breathing Space registrations in Q1 2023. This is 34% higher than in Q1 2022. Of the 23,179 Breathing Space registrations, 22,770 were Standard Breathing Space registrations and 409 were Mental Health Breathing Space registrations.

 

I noticed that they didnt include "breathing space registration" on the chart..... further down the page:

Breathing Space Registrations

There were 23,179 Breathing Space registrations in Q1 2023. This is 34% higher than in Q1 2022. Of the 23,179 Breathing Space registrations, 22,770 were Standard breathing space registrations and 409 were Mental Health breathing space registrations.

Hmmmm....... I still dont know what it means.

Near the bottom of the page:

Breathing Space

For individuals, the Breathing Space scheme, launched on 4 May 2021, gives people legal protections from their creditors for 60 days, with most interest and penalty charges frozen, and enforcement action halted. Because problem debt can be linked to mental health issues, these protections are also available for people in mental health crisis treatment – for the full duration of their crisis treatment plus another 30 days.

 

So it is a way to delay payment of debt for at least 60 days but if you can get signed off for "mental health crisis treatment" it can be longer although that seems to be only 2% of debtors using this scheme.

Can we assume that using the breathing space reduces credit worthiness?

Can we assume that a significant percentage (maybe 60%+) will go into some sort of insolvency arrangement after their 60 days have passed?

It looks like its another way to kick the can but only for a few months

 

 

[MrXxxx]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

But isn't the pdf in the Library the 1997 edition of Howe's Fourth Turning book?

His new edition is published in July...

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3QEQJXWDCXT7D&keywords=Neil+howe&qid=1682611381&s=books&sprefix=neil+howe%2Cstripbooks%2C527&sr=1-1

 

What's the saying "Beggars can't be choosers"? :-)

[Alifelessbinary]

7 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Cheers. Thought I would look at Persimmon plc share price history chart. Looks a little ominous - not advice etc

Are they moving back to land banking mode?

A lot of the volume house builders are consolidating and reducing overheads at the moment. Those with high debt are going to be in real trouble soon ,especially if interest rates remain high. I think everyone agrees that house prices are unsustainable, it's just whether they can keep the price drops in real terms only, as most people only really seem to care about nominal figures (which for now are holding up because of high inflation!).

The companies that are better capitalised are waiting in the wings to try and gain some prime assets at fire sale values. The other reasons that house builders are struggling is that the Conservatives have withdrawn support for planning applications. In the current market house builders can't risk spending millions on planning applications without political support. This  combined with the upcoming potential change in government, means that  many house builders are adopting a wait and see approach, as they don't know yet whether they'll want to developer under a Labour regime.

This will just compound the already chronic supply of new homes. The joys of the property cycle.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

Imagine our surprise.........

[Dogtania]

Watched some YouTube travel show yesterday in the favelas (Brazil).  Presenter asking about utilities.. Electricity and water both free (illegally) then he asked what about internet.. Yes we do have to pay for data.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

UC claimants will require 16-18 hours in week in Bakhmut trenches.

Also extendable to anyone who deosnt put their pronouns in their signature

We realy could muster at least 400,000 poles of fighting age to assist them.not only that at least 400,000 polish women to act has comunial war wife’s . And I’d bet at least 200,000 English born but with a polish parent to replace the dead Ukrainians.

[King Penda]

47 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

A lot of the volume house builders are consolidating and reducing overheads at the moment. Those with high debt are going to be in real trouble soon ,especially if interest rates remain high. I think everyone agrees that house prices are unsustainable, it's just whether they can keep the price drops in real terms only, as most people only really seem to care about nominal figures (which for now are holding up because of high inflation!).

The companies that are better capitalised are waiting in the wings to try and gain some prime assets at fire sale values. The other reasons that house builders are struggling is that the Conservatives have withdrawn support for planning applications. In the current market house builders can't risk spending millions on planning applications without political support. This  combined with the upcoming potential change in government, means that  many house builders are adopting a wait and see approach, as they don't know yet whether they'll want to developer under a Labour regime.

This will just compound the already chronic supply of new homes. The joys of the property cycle.

 Wonder how big tw. Land bank is nowadays they might be worth buying at sub 25p

[Jay]

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Imagine our surprise.........

Exxon out today with record profits..I did have some but sold out last year at 2.5 times profit…some posters probably still holding with even more profit..

talking head said oil fundamentals are tight and given the opec+ cuts, I agree..oil price has been falling for a while...I bought oil today as I really can’t see demand falling much in India and China…plus if the dollar falls or is de dollarisation then should should provide support for the oil price..the western oil stocks are strong and I can’t see them falling much anytime soon to allow me back in…be lucky..

 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

It's the same argument they use for CO2 "causing" climate change, combined with a willful disregard of leads and lags (to stay on thread)

I read your post quickly and thought it said 'heads and legs'...  Thing is, in regard to our awful technocratic climate scientists, it still made (a terrible!) logical sense to me!!

Edited April 28, 2023 by JMD

[spygirl]

Bank of England forecasts £100bn payment from Treasury by 2033 over QE losses

Central bank stresses figures relating to bond-buying programme are estimates

https://www.ft.com/content/e61664cd-1cb6-4e0e-a8e5-2c5fb57ae935

The Bank of England has estimated that it will require the UK Treasury to transfer a total of £100bn by 2033 to cover expected losses on its bond-buying quantitative easing programme.

When funny money no longer is fun.

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by spygirl

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

That is very much my take on it. Bringing it all back to thread themes, we have a possible answer to @DurhamBorn's question of why our leaders can't see that what they are doing and doubling down on leads to systemic collapse? Basic failing leadership leading to a behavioural sink. If you want an example of the state taking everything, what better than the european Jewry? I can actually picture the well known Downfall bunker scene but with windmills etc instead of military units on the map.

 

Yes absolutely. Plus It's mostly why I don't buy into the global conspiracy control agenda. After all if our polos had been covertly selected by Davos, etc, they would be intelligent, charasmatic types. They would definitely not be the awful 'end of cycle' dregs we have now. 

Your historical refence to the Jews made me fast forward to today. And if I were Jewish, given the many spastic comments coming from the Labour front benches, and their Momentum affiliation, over recent years - I'd be very scared of the prospect of an incoming Labour government?   ...Btw i wouldn't have thought that way pre-Covid, however that whole 2-year psyop episode affected and afflicted me enormously.

Edited April 28, 2023 by JMD

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

“Because it’s the right thing to do……”

”Need to square the circle”

”We haven’t got the bandwidth for this”

Blue sky thinking.  Is that still a term?   
there’s no I in team.  
 

fuck me, glad I escaped.  

[JohnnyB]

https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2023-03-20/predatory-businesses-profit-off-personal-debts

 

So there's now a whole industry of shady "debt support" companies that manage to extract even more £££ from people in debt and put them on unsuitable IVAs.

Must be near the end game now

I did laugh at the radio a few weeks ago when there was an advert to claim for compo on "mis-sold" personal loans if you thought you should never have been lent the money. I guess having a self - selected group of people who are shit with money is a tempting prospect for lots of companies 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Bank of England forecasts £100bn payment from Treasury by 2033 over QE losses

Central bank stresses figures relating to bond-buying programme are estimates

https://www.ft.com/content/e61664cd-1cb6-4e0e-a8e5-2c5fb57ae935

The Bank of England has estimated that it will require the UK Treasury to transfer a total of £100bn by 2033 to cover expected losses on its bond-buying quantitative easing programme.

When funny money no longer is fun.

 

Probably works out as the removal of £5000 from the pensions and savings of each working person in the UK