Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Petrobras looks like an absolute banker at $10 a pop, so much so I can't shake the feeling there just be something fundamentally fucked about it.

Any chance it can be nationalised  ?

[desertorchid]

6 hours ago, spygirl said:

Bank of England forecasts £100bn payment from Treasury by 2033 over QE losses

Central bank stresses figures relating to bond-buying programme are estimates

https://www.ft.com/content/e61664cd-1cb6-4e0e-a8e5-2c5fb57ae935

The Bank of England has estimated that it will require the UK Treasury to transfer a total of £100bn by 2033 to cover expected losses on its bond-buying quantitative easing programme.

When funny money no longer is fun.

 

Don't fall for this one chaps.

This all reeks to me of managing inflationary expectations. Along with the "you are all poorer, get used to it article" a few days ago they are presently in the business of spreading doom and gloom as they realise their moronic fucking fan charts are once again completely wrong.

Edited April 28, 2023 by desertorchid

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

Don't fall for this one chaps.

This all reeks to me of managing inflationary expectations. Along with the "you are all poorer, get used to it article" a few days ago they are presently in the business of spreading doom and gloom as they realise their moronic fucking fan charts are once again completely wrong.

The charts are correct, reality failed to match expectations 

[wherebee]

Some interesting news from down under; I think BP's talk about green has been playing both sides of the fence.  That WA project is a real hot potato politically, and the Greens have a lot of power in the new government.  I don't think BP would have increased their stake unless they know that they can follow through.
 

BP will acquire fellow global energy major Shell’s stake in the $30 billion Browse LNG project in Western Australia hot on the heels of Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill issuing a warning about the mounting regulatory hurdles and policy changes facing the project’s backers.

The deal boosts BP stake in the Browse project, led by Woodside, to 44 per cent. PetroChina and Japanese heavyweights Mitsubishi and Mitsui also have stakes in what is touted as Australia’s largest untapped conventional gas resource.

[Alifelessbinary]

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I think the listed house builders learnt their lesson from the GFC. They have minimal debt nowadays. I think the margins will be crushed - a few years ago Persimmon were making 30% gross margins which is ridiculous.

I always find it amusing that of the listed house builders the one that built the nicest houses and operationally seemed to be the best run was Berkeley a company set up by a gypsy.

I used to own Berkeley shares as they were incredibly run company and Tony Pidley was one of the best deal makers in the country. Since he’s died though I worry that the company is now run by accountants rather than deal makers. I’ve sold my shares a few years ago, as their previous model of selling 50% stock off to foreign investors was looking shaky. They’ve still got a good land bank, but recently made redundant quite a few could development managers which is always a risk, as it takes time to attract and cultivate people.

[marceau]

https://dailysceptic.org/2023/04/26/populism-is-political-opposition-to-a-rapid-decline-in-living-standards/

Insightful article doing the rounds. 2nd good piece I've seen from this guy in the last few weeks.

Edited April 29, 2023 by marceau

[marceau]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

The charts are correct, reality failed to match expectations 

100% - this is the mindset.

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 27/04/2023 at 16:50, Bobthebuilder said:

There was a positive that I took away from the course. Boiler manufactures saying there new boilers will work perfectly well at 5 millibar (a quarter of current domestic 20 millibar pressure), shows the advancement of efficiency they are managing to achieve. Of course you cant run older boilers or gas hobs at 5 millibar, but its a glimpse of the future.

Another interesting change was working pressure at a domestic gas meter. For decades that has been a minimum of 20 millibar with a maximum drop of 1 millibar at the appliance burner, that has now been dropped to 18 millibar at the meter for the first time ever.

Noticed that looking at frost free fridge freezers seen as low as 104kwh per year. Unless VW done the labelling.

[Axeman123]

30 minutes ago, marceau said:

Insightful article doing the rounds.

Good read that, cheers for the link.

[M S E Refugee]

Since Biden said he was going to turn the Rouble into Rubble how many Russian Banks have gone bankrupt compared with the US Banks?

I am more and more inclined to believe the Elites are thick as pigshit, if they continue to ruin the West, where are the Elites going to escape to?

Do they get strung up by an angry starving mob or do the Chinese and Russians take care of them?

[MMax]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Since Biden said he was going to turn the Rouble into Rubble how many Russian Banks have gone bankrupt compared with the US Banks?

I am more and more inclined to believe the Elites are thick as pigshit, if they continue to ruin the West, where are the Elites going to escape to?

Do they get strung up by an angry starving mob or do the Chinese and Russians take care of them?

Gated communities within the rubble - protected by stormtroopers!

[DurhamBorn]

16 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

“Because it’s the right thing to do……”

”Need to square the circle”

”We haven’t got the bandwidth for this”

 

[DurhamBorn]

14 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

No idea.

When is TEF Brazil going to pay a dividend?

Its ex divi,but they have a very complicated way of paying divis in Brazil,you get divis,then a thing they call "interest on capital",they seem to add those monthly then at some point pay them.I bought and sold them last year (re-bought big holding now) but i got one divi,but it came in 3 different payments over 3 days for some reason.

The good news is as up thread all those gang members etc are paying for their data and sending us the divs.

[ashestoashes]

if Biden and Gates have promised a more deadly pandemic then won't telecoms be vulnerable to reduced business if their customers die off ?

[wherebee]

17 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

if Biden and Gates have promised a more deadly pandemic then won't telecoms be vulnerable to reduced business WHEN their customers die off  from the jabs from the last pandemic?

FTFY

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 27/04/2023 at 19:55, Lightscribe said:

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Fhigh-earners-bank-of-england-income-tax-rate-drop%2F
 

The epitome of why this country is in the schizer

In last year’s Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt announced that the threshold for the top rate of income tax was to be cut from £150,000 to £125,140. Since April 6, some 232,000 workers have found themselves paying the 45p rate for the first time. This week, Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, has warned that rising prices have made the whole country poorer and that attempts to bid up wages were merely prolonging the agony. We spoke to three high earners to find out how all of this has impacted them and their families.
 

When I saw the news that the point at which the 45p income tax rate kicks in is falling to £125,140, I had to laugh. By a whisker, it raises me into the lofty realms of the country’s wealthy elite – which is a very long way indeed from how I feel.

I may earn good money in my senior job in recruitment, but the moment it hits my account, that money immediately disappears. It certainly doesn’t go on extravagances. I get my hair cut and coloured every three months, but my clothes are high street and our weekly shop is from Asda. We take one bucket-and-spade family holiday a year, last year it was in Tenerife – lovely for the children, but hardly the Maldives.

What devours my money at a terrifying rate is bills: mortgage, childcare, school fees, travel, gas and electricity… the list goes on. Although we can just about pay them now, I’m scared we’re one mortgage hike from living totally beyond our means.

We moved out of London four years ago to buy our four-bedroom house in Surrey for £1.3 million, for which we borrowed £500,000. Our repayments are over £2,000 per month, which my husband and I split between us. He is a graphic designer who earns around £50,000, which means I pay the lion’s share of the rest of our outgoings.

I don’t resent him for earning less, as he’s contributed far more than his share of nursery pick-ups and days when he can’t work because one of the children is ill. But it means that our biggest bills, for our daughter and son, fall to me, and they are astronomical. Our five-year-old daughter is at a private school, which costs around £15,000 a year. All that buys is her education from 9.15am to 3.15pm during term-time – if we need her to stay later, which we often do, it’s almost £10 extra per hour, with an additional £12.50 for dinner: this usually costs us well over £100 per week. Then there are holiday clubs, extra-curricular activities and school trips.

It was me who wanted her to have a private education, like me, so I only have myself to blame for the cost. I often wonder whether we’re doing the right thing, because compared to most of her classmates’ parents, we’re positively poor. They’re hedge fund managers with incredibly glamorous wives who don’t work; when I meet them at school events, it’s clear we inhabit different worlds. I worry that in the long-run we might be taking a path which makes our children feel inferior.

What’s absolutely not my fault, though, is the ludicrous sum I pay for my son to go to nursery full-time: around £1,800 per month, which is more than my daughter’s school fees. From September, after he turns three, we’ll get 15 hours of nursery a week for free but only for 38 weeks of the year, as my salary means we don’t qualify for 30. I understand why those who earn less should receive more help, but I admit that when I pay so much in tax and get so little back it feels like a kick in the teeth.

The other bills stack up, too. I pay £800 per month into my pension; energy bills are now around £300 per month; council tax is £255. Travelling by train into London to go to the office two or three days a week costs hundreds more every month. With food prices that constantly go up, phone, broadband, subscriptions for Netflix and Disney+ – I feel overwhelmed by it all.

Recently, we’ve been looking for ways to economise because having nothing left at the end of the month makes me anxious and stressed. We gave up our cleaner last year to save £45 a week and now do the cleaning ourselves. I no longer have a gym membership. We’re now considering moving up north, where I’m originally from, in the hope that we could buy a less expensive house and enjoy a better lifestyle in return for all our hard work.

Is £125k enough to live comfortably? Well, in London it’s definitely not. I’m in banking, an industry famous for its generous salaries, and I’m considered to be in the top 2 per cent of earners in this country but quite frankly, it rarely feels like that. The figures speak for themselves. If you earn a salary of £125k, you take home £75k. A quick Google search will tell you that 55 per cent of four-bed homes in London – and I’m talking greater London here, down to Croydon – are £1m or above. So on a £1m house, stamp duty is £42k. If you have an 80 per cent mortgage, not only do you need a £200k deposit – and who’s got that hanging around? – but your monthly payments will be, on the current rates, £4.5k a month, just over £50k a year. 

And then let’s move to childcare. In my case, I have two small children in nursery; the youngest, who is one, is there three days a week and the oldest, three, is there four days a week. It costs us £2.5k a month – so that’s £30k a year on childcare that’s not even full time.

The rest is simple maths: if, say, my take home pay is £75k and my mortgage is £50k and my childcare bill is £30k - that’s all my wages gone. Just wiped out. That’s before any other bills; council tax, energy, water, food, insurance, car expenses and any whisper of a holiday.

, yes, we are a dual income household: we have to be. My wife is an IT consultant and earns £65,000, which helps plug the gaps. Successive governments have created this trap where you need dual incomes to buy a house – because they’re so ridiculously expensive – but then you both have to keep on working full pelt to service the mortgage while one of your incomes just gets hoovered up by childcare.

During the pandemic my wife was made redundant and she had to do contract work for a while. So when she got pregnant with our second child, she didn’t get maternity leave pay. She was at home with our newborn and my wage didn’t cover our costs. We had to eat into our savings just to get through the months before she could go back to work and we felt comfortable leaving the baby at nursery.

And I understand that many would say we’re lucky to have savings, to have that safety net. I understand that we choose to live in London: of course we could move out to somewhere cheaper, but both my wife and I would be looking at a long and expensive commute. I never said my wage wasn’t enough to live on – but it’s sometimes hard to live comfortably.

It’s not like we spend £10k on clothes; we’re not wasting thousands on discretionary items that we could well live without, because if that were the case then we would be to blame. I’m talking about core expenses here: the home we pay for so we have a secure place to live, the childcare we need so my wife can go to work – which is her right and important – and the bills we pay so we can have heating and light. 

In my mind, there is no sane reality where someone who earns £200k and gets a £10k bonus gets taxed less on that bonus than someone who earns £100k. But that is the truth of the matter. For someone earning £100k, the marginal rate of tax is 62 per cent. How is that right?

The Government likes to squeeze the bracket of people who earn between £100k and £150k. Why? Well we’re ‘rich’ enough for there to be little public sympathy but we’re not rich enough to be globally mobile and pay for dedicated tax advice, like the Rishi Sunaks of this world.

In this country, we need to start distinguishing between earnings and wealth. Wealth – assets or inheritance – are not taxed at the level earnings are. And how can I accumulate wealth if I’m being taxed so much? Let’s be clear: if you went to state school and have no family wealth, but you worked hard to get a high-paying job, you may earn a lot but that does not necessarily equate to being wealthy. 

Wondered where @markyh got to. 

[Lightly Toasted]

17 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Wonder why the BoE have put out two recent media narratives on UK employment, namely 1) getting the over 50’s back into the workplace, and 2) people can’t expect with inflation wage rises/have to accept being poorer?...if the former was achieved this would have had an impact on number of applicants for a post and so the ability to offer lower salaries [reduce wage inflation], the latter shows the first ‘press release’ hasn’t worked and so engendering a narrative/expectation of ‘below inflation’ rises needs to be addressed, otherwise when inflation drops below the current wage growth level [6.9%] it will send inflation shooting up again.

To me this shows how much the BoE and policymakers are flailing.

Getting older people (in fact anyone) back into the workforce is a supply side reform (yes, supply of labour and of taxpayers, but most importantly supply within the UK economy -- its ability to meet its own demand).

However squeezing wages while boosting welfare does the opposite of that: it reduces supply, preserves demand, and sucks in more debt-financed, sterling-destroying imports.

Completely schizophrenic.

[Errol]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

if Biden and Gates have promised a more deadly pandemic then won't telecoms be vulnerable to reduced business if their customers die off ?

If it gets that bad, worrying about telecom dividends will be quite low on the agenda.

Edited April 29, 2023 by Errol

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

if Biden and Gates have promised a more deadly pandemic then won't telecoms be vulnerable to reduced business if their customers die off ?

In that scenario, what wouldn’t be vulnerable?

[markyh]

31 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Wondered where @markyh got to. 

No mortgage now bro, £250k mortgage in 2021, gone, cleared. job done. 

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Lightly Toasted said:

To me this shows how much the BoE and policymakers are flailing.

Getting older people (in fact anyone) back into the workforce is a supply side reform (yes, supply of labour and of taxpayers, but most importantly supply within the UK economy -- its ability to meet its own demand).

However squeezing wages while boosting welfare does the opposite of that: it reduces supply, preserves demand, and sucks in more debt-financed, sterling-destroying imports.

Completely schizophrenic.

I explained that to them face to face.They had zero understanding and i mean zero.They simply dont get that bennies being only £50 less a week than working full time on nightshift in a shit hole means less and less work.They are all educated on the same failed economics courses.They ALL think extra liquidity in the economy means business etc will expand to fill the want.They cant grasp that that isnt true when we dont have a closed econnomy and a surplus in energy,inputs etc.They kept mentioning "the macro",but they were talking classical economics,not macro strategy,they confuse the two.Their polcies have allowed government to build a system where half the country takes but doesnt produce and that half is inflation locked.Its incredible.My roadmap is very simple to work with because they are so useless.It needs massive cross market interactions when bennies are going up 5% more pa than wages to throw collapse off.

I dont answer their emails now,and i wont go to anymore of their meetings,they will never listen,even when we are right over and over,because to them we must be wrong.My job is to protect my family and keep making profit from the cranks.

[Kevin Redshaw]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I explained that to them face to face.They had zero understanding and i mean zero.They simply dont get that bennies being only £50 less a week than working full time on nightshift in a shit hole means less and less work.They are all educated on the same failed economics courses.They ALL think extra liquidity in the economy means business etc will expand to fill the want.They cant grasp that that isnt true when we dont have a closed econnomy and a surplus in energy,inputs etc.They kept mentioning "the macro",but they were talking classical economics,not macro strategy,they confuse the two.Their polcies have allowed government to build a system where half the country takes but doesnt produce and that half is inflation locked.Its incredible.My roadmap is very simple to work with because they are so useless.It needs massive cross market interactions when bennies are going up 5% more pa than wages to throw collapse off.

I dont answer their emails now,and i wont go to anymore of their meetings,they will never listen,even when we are right over and over,because to them we must be wrong.My job is to protect my family and keep making profit from the cranks.

They're Keynesians - only Keynesianism is taught at university, so only Keynesianism is taught in the macro side of the A Level Economics course.

[Red Debt Redemption]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

No mortgage now bro, £250k mortgage in 2021, gone, cleared. job done. 

Congrats brah!

[JMD]

On 28/04/2023 at 14:12, MrXxxx said:

What's the saying "Beggars can't be choosers"? :-)

Just hope it's worth the wait. Howe begun writing it in 2019 and he's been repeatedly saying it will be published the next year, then the following year, etc. Perhaps he's written a really dark tome, which  would tbh probably fit very well with the mood of many posters on this thread!? 

[No One]

On 27/04/2023 at 21:13, CannonFodder said:

 

Watch and learn

Need answers - just ring someone up and pretend to be Zelensky

 

 

https://rumble.com/v2kr36u-full-prank-with-the-chairman-of-the-us-federal-reserve-jerome-powell.html