Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Boon]

 

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I once worked with a council and was very dubious about rolling out individual budgets (risk of "misuse" of funds) but glad to see a social worker on top of it.  The correct authorisation process is to request a change to the care plan.  That's the required DD, not getting the BBC to put their oar in.  I'm sure the human rights lawyer and BBC dimwittety will help with that.

Don't doubt he's gone down that road already since he went through the appeals process and lost. Getting the media involved seems to be a last-ditch attempt to shame the council into reversing that decision.

It does seem surprising that this should be one of the top news stories today.

In future though CBDC would save a hell of a load of admin costs for the council. Money could be set to expire, so nobody could hoard it like this, and only spent on approved things, so a holiday is out of the question.

I mean, a big bag of weed or a hooker would provide some respite from everyday life but I doubt people would be sympathetic if he skipped his weekly cinema trip in order to pay for that.

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

sir sir, wotya buyin???

You don't want to know, it's probably just a cheaper ticket to a train crash.

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

You don't want to know, it's probably just a cheaper ticket to a train crash.

go on I like a gamble

[Castlevania]

16 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

“He wanted a six-day break in Florida to "have a bit of respite from the mundane reality of everyday life".”

don’t we all 😂 

Going well off topic. They did not divulge enough info of support package. Need to know shared and 1:1 hours .they say £11k a month which sounds a lot but not really I did some quick maths and got 16hours a week support guess! 16hours x 7days x 52.14weeks x £22/hr which gets me to £128k a year. There’s night provision too. If he is dropping support and saving those hours can’t remember how those individualised type payments work. Thought they could use it on holidays etc which will be expensive to pay for 2x people to fly , work and backfill them. Didn’t think the council could dip into them but just guessing 😂 .

Or you know, the equivalent take home pay to an individual on £230k.

[JMD]

Wow - Is (the feted investor) Jeremy Grantham totally senile or just sticking around these days to troll us?!

Between 35-45 mins he tells us high global debt levels are not a problem (his disingenuous description of debt is very quaint!), however he refuses to explain why not despite some pushback from the host. But he does insist on correcting the host calling him a billionaire... You see he isn't one because he has given most of his money away, however that money is apparently now in his own charitable trust(!) - but which even by his own description sounds more like a private equity play thing for him and his 'green ideals'?

But please don't watch if have high blood pressure, however worth watching those 10 minutes in order to witness the sheer economic bloody-mindedness of this guy.

(Btw in case your wondering why I'm watching this type of interview in the first place, it's because I like Nate Hagen and his perspectives evan though he is an environmentalist. Rather intriguingly he and Art (oil man) Berman is a regular gust and are great freinds and contribute to each others research work.)

 

 

 

 

Edited February 14 by JMD

[sancho panza]

If wealth were measured in penniless migrants,we'd be rich.

 

[Lightscribe]

43 minutes ago, nirvana said:

go on I like a gamble

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Boon said:

 

Don't doubt he's gone down that road already since he went through the appeals process and lost. Getting the media involved seems to be a last-ditch attempt to shame the council into reversing that decision.

It does seem surprising that this should be one of the top news stories today.

In future though CBDC would save a hell of a load of admin costs for the council. Money could be set to expire, so nobody could hoard it like this, and only spent on approved things, so a holiday is out of the question.

I mean, a big bag of weed or a hooker would provide some respite from everyday life but I doubt people would be sympathetic if he skipped his weekly cinema trip in order to pay for that.

Dealers and hookers will be setting up front businesses with agreeable names for CBDC payment. They will appear to be proper entrepreneurs on paper as I suspect the council would question two £100 hair cuts per week... I suppose massage therapy would be a good one.

[JMD]

23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

If wealth were measured in penniless migrants,we'd be rich.

 

Ah, but progressive culture dictates that the vulnerable and the migrant are now the elevated sainted class - so this country should at least feel 'morally enriched'!!

Edited February 14 by JMD

[marceau]

5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Dealers and hookers will be setting up front businesses with agreeable names for CBDC payment. They will appear to be proper entrepreneurs on paper as I suspect the council would question two £100 hair cuts per week... I suppose massage therapy would be a good one.

Indeed. CBDC won't be solving anything for the powers that be. Assuming dumbass govt and councils can even implement a functional system, anyone with a brain will quickly have workarounds to shovel them back their worthless digits in the shortest time possible. It'll be a black marketeer's dream.

[Red Debt Redemption]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They have superb management.I suspect they will develop their new assets over the next few years and they will have to be careful because they will cost a lot of capital (the Lithium mines in Finland and US mostly),but are debt free at the moment and have a $1bill revolving credit facility.They also have some very nice undeveloped assets like Marathon.I suspect they will slowly run down their gold assets and cash cow them,but they might try to keep them going on very slow decline.I very rarely own the gold mining companies,once a decade seems to be it,but iv done amazing out of them over the years.Very likely i will go big on Sibanye if they stay down or go a bit lower.

The irony is its higher inflation hitting them hard because of US rates staying up,but its that very inflation that will make them multi bag down the road.Not for widows and orphans.I think the way to look at Sibanye is in simple terms £20k in,£60k+ out,or nothing out,sit and wait,or in time lose it.Not for those who cry when underwater.

Sounds right up my poly street. 

[Red Debt Redemption]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

PM miners are pretty much hated at the mo. AISC costs have hit the miners hard, and the manipulation past $2050 hasn't helped offset the costs. Hopefully the deflation in energy costs will start to turn that around.

An example of when someone fell asleep at the Mr.Slammy button was a couple of months back when it spiked to $2150 on a Sunday night. Whether or not that manipulation is muscle flexing due to BRICs fondness of gold is another matter. Central banks are swallowing it all up however (like in 2023) and that’s not by coincidence.

The world’s industry economies are in trouble, we can see that in China and Germany. Industry and energy was always going to suffer leading into recession.

King $ and the AI tech boom is just a result of all that QE being funneled further and further into a fewer and fewer companies. Fund managers desperate to perform so jumping on the bandwagon. There’s no analysis anymore. It’s just an extension of NFTs/crypto/meme stock mentality on a larger scale.

The $ needs to turn, and it will eventually. 2024 was always the year on my list for stagflation and I think we’re seeing that emerge now, and gold performs best in that environment historically.

Pity about Sibanye with their Uranium outlook. I think that’s a major plus for them and they’re making a mistake, hopefully they’ll change tack soon.

So yes I’m loaded in my gold/silver allocations and am happy to wait out this year. Most certainly not a time for junior miners however IMO (sorry @kibuc)

 

With the way climate crap is falling over could be a watch what they do not what they say on the uranium front.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

Indeed. CBDC won't be solving anything for the powers that be. Assuming dumbass govt and councils can even implement a functional system, anyone with a brain will quickly have workarounds to shovel them back their worthless digits in the shortest time possible. It'll be a black marketeer's dream.

Well it’s happening regardless..,

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

Indeed. CBDC won't be solving anything for the powers that be. Assuming dumbass govt and councils can even implement a functional system, anyone with a brain will quickly have workarounds to shovel them back their worthless digits in the shortest time possible. It'll be a black marketeer's dream.

A particular washing powder was the apparent medium of exchange for those social debit cards used in the US.  The smart people could not understand what was going on but it was very clear on the street.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Ok, I'm calling it: it's time to sell everything 😂

[Loki]

25 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ok, I'm calling it: it's time to sell everything 😂

 

*DING DONG*

Hey there buddy...word on the street is you're thinking of backing out of the melt up...can we come in for a little talk?

 

[honkydonkey]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ok, I'm calling it: it's time to sell everything 😂

X axis? Would that highlight they're comparing 1.5 months with almost 3 months. Fuck all correlation. 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

I went big today on Sibanye,im thinking of selling Verizon to bump up the 2nd ladder if needed .Markets hitting the sector due to the dollar strength,but the real story will be the EM bull once the dollar turns as it will soon and metals will go with it.In 18 i was 35% gold miners,im not going that far this time as id have to sell some stuff,but i might get to 18% if they pull back to 2nd ladder and i start adding others.Its rare i own the miners,but risk / reward is back at the start of decent range here.They could get hit on results day so i might get 2nd ladder in then.I dont think there is the value yet in the sector i like,but some are in range.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Dealers and hookers will be setting up front businesses with agreeable names for CBDC payment. They will appear to be proper entrepreneurs on paper as I suspect the council would question two £100 hair cuts per week... I suppose massage therapy would be a good one.

Its a very very very good one 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

With the way climate crap is falling over could be a watch what they do not what they say on the uranium front.

I think they are just rowing back so they dont get pushed on it by investors etc because they will be a bit squeezed on free cash this year and they need to fund Finland and US mine builds etc.The uranium is still coming out on their tailings,and they have been investing in growing their tailings re-treatment business.It could be they move it onto Uranium in a few years starting with the tailings .

[sancho panza]

ALlistair Heath goes full basement dweller,MSM been nipping down ehre in theur tea breaks?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/for-the-first-time-im-beginning-to-think-britain-is-finishe/

For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished

The country’s self-image as tolerant, decent and hard-working is being smashed. It’s only going to get worse

Britain’s decline over the past 25 years has been staggeringly rapid. Almost everything is getting worse, and almost nothing is getting better. Our public and private institutions are broken, presided over by an incompetent, selfish and narcissistic ruling class. Living standards, when adjusted properly for living and property costs, are declining. 

Even the simplest things don’t work any longer. Queuing, scarcity and congestion are rife, our infrastructure is embarrassingly poor, and the honest and hardworking face endless bureaucratic battles to obtain what they are due. Free riding, crime, disorder, fraud, littering and generalised rule-bending are rife, and all too often tolerated by apathetic citizens and an indifferent state. Britain’s residual virtues, our individualism, independence of mind, tolerance and openness, uniquely appealing features of our national character, are fading. 

Like a frog in boiling water, few saw the full scale of the decline coming until it was too late, and those who did were ridiculed by the bien-pensant. Yet even in 2024, when millions now realise that Britain is on the wrong track, there is no hope of meaningful improvement. The Tories have been abysmal, but Labour will be even worse: Keir Starmer will double down on the social-democratic and culturally nihilistic policies tested to destruction by the Conservatives.

 

 

In the 2000s, Britain had a particular idea of itself: a country of post-Thatcherite property-owners which reconciled modernity and tradition, globalisation and national self-determination, low-tax dynamism and fairness, where you didn’t need IDs to vote, where MPs weren’t attacked by screaming mobs, and where, finally, racism was increasingly a thing of the past. We saw ourselves as a socially mobile, law-abiding land of high trust, low corruption, the rule of law, improving race relations and religious toleration: a uniquely open society and a model to the Western world. 

Such a vision is now largely obsolete. An Englishman’s home was his castle, making a huge difference to our national psyche, until our deliberate policy of rationing new housing at a time of mass immigration robbed the under-40s of the chance of owning anything of their own. “This is a free country”, we used to maintain when presented with another idiotic proposal to control us, but that too is over, killed off by the woke war on free speech, the jailing of Christian preachers, the sugar tax, the surveillance society and the Covid lockdowns. 

 

 

In narrow GDP growth terms, we continue to outperform the true laggards on the continent, as Brexiteers correctly predicted, but that should be no consolation. Our manufacturing sector is being priced out of global markets by the rush to net zero, our energy policy is a hideous farce, our misregulated City is in decline, and our tax system an absurd conspiracy against hard work and merit, with marginal tax rates back at 1970s levels for some. 

The socialist NHS, despite massive increases in funding, is a horror show, and one of the main reasons not to live in the UK. Some 5.6 million adults are on out-of-work benefits, and yet immigration is running at extraordinary levels. Our Armed Forces have been slashed, and are now being subject to a woke takeover. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Amazing.Funny how i told Catherine Mann their models were rubbish and their monetising the welfare budget was causing the inflation.Read that below.Frightening.Like i said classical economics,no macro cross market strategy.The reasons are you monetising inflation linked bennie increases you fucking useless lump of lard.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/14/inflation-cpi-holds-steady-in-boost-sunak-uk-economy/

 

Mr Bailey said: “It’s also challenging [in terms of] exactly what are the reasons for inactivity and what do we deduce from those reasons in terms of what might happen in the future.”

Andrew Bailey has blamed “serious problems” with Britain’s jobs data for the Bank of England’s forecasting errors as he admitted he did not know the true scale of the country’s worklessness crisis.

The Bank’s governor said its models were being undermined by the poor quality of data on the country’s jobs market.

He said measures of pay growth were not fit for purpose, adding that the “tools” policymakers used to make judgments about growth, jobs and prices “have not served us particularly well”.

Mr Bailey told the Lord’s Economic Affairs Committee that gaps in official data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) made it particularly difficult to judge how many people were unemployed and how many had given up looking for work altogether.

 

[DurhamBorn]

And here we go,like we said,fridges.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/14/world-miss-climate-targets-surging-asian-gas-demand-shell/

[Lightscribe]

An example of proof that cycles are a thing. You can be in recession whilst stocks are at an ATH.

Stocks aren’t related to the health of the economy, they’re related to the liquidity of QE money being funneled to the 1%ers.
 

The 40 year disinflation cycle and resulting QE after 2008 illustrated. The reversion to the inflation cycle has awoken the Japanese stock market, but simultaneously caused havoc in their bonds and currency markets.

[Onsamui]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ALlistair Heath goes full basement dweller,MSM been nipping down ehre in theur tea breaks?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/for-the-first-time-im-beginning-to-think-britain-is-finishe/

For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished

The country’s self-image as tolerant, decent and hard-working is being smashed. It’s only going to get worse

Britain’s decline over the past 25 years has been staggeringly rapid. Almost everything is getting worse, and almost nothing is getting better. Our public and private institutions are broken, presided over by an incompetent, selfish and narcissistic ruling class. Living standards, when adjusted properly for living and property costs, are declining. 

Even the simplest things don’t work any longer. Queuing, scarcity and congestion are rife, our infrastructure is embarrassingly poor, and the honest and hardworking face endless bureaucratic battles to obtain what they are due. Free riding, crime, disorder, fraud, littering and generalised rule-bending are rife, and all too often tolerated by apathetic citizens and an indifferent state. Britain’s residual virtues, our individualism, independence of mind, tolerance and openness, uniquely appealing features of our national character, are fading. 

Like a frog in boiling water, few saw the full scale of the decline coming until it was too late, and those who did were ridiculed by the bien-pensant. Yet even in 2024, when millions now realise that Britain is on the wrong track, there is no hope of meaningful improvement. The Tories have been abysmal, but Labour will be even worse: Keir Starmer will double down on the social-democratic and culturally nihilistic policies tested to destruction by the Conservatives.

 

 

In the 2000s, Britain had a particular idea of itself: a country of post-Thatcherite property-owners which reconciled modernity and tradition, globalisation and national self-determination, low-tax dynamism and fairness, where you didn’t need IDs to vote, where MPs weren’t attacked by screaming mobs, and where, finally, racism was increasingly a thing of the past. We saw ourselves as a socially mobile, law-abiding land of high trust, low corruption, the rule of law, improving race relations and religious toleration: a uniquely open society and a model to the Western world. 

Such a vision is now largely obsolete. An Englishman’s home was his castle, making a huge difference to our national psyche, until our deliberate policy of rationing new housing at a time of mass immigration robbed the under-40s of the chance of owning anything of their own. “This is a free country”, we used to maintain when presented with another idiotic proposal to control us, but that too is over, killed off by the woke war on free speech, the jailing of Christian preachers, the sugar tax, the surveillance society and the Covid lockdowns. 

 

 

In narrow GDP growth terms, we continue to outperform the true laggards on the continent, as Brexiteers correctly predicted, but that should be no consolation. Our manufacturing sector is being priced out of global markets by the rush to net zero, our energy policy is a hideous farce, our misregulated City is in decline, and our tax system an absurd conspiracy against hard work and merit, with marginal tax rates back at 1970s levels for some. 

The socialist NHS, despite massive increases in funding, is a horror show, and one of the main reasons not to live in the UK. Some 5.6 million adults are on out-of-work benefits, and yet immigration is running at extraordinary levels. Our Armed Forces have been slashed, and are now being subject to a woke takeover. 

 

Surely silver/gold should run, particularly silver coinage?