Death Of London

[spygirl]

UK homebuilder Redrow retreats from London after pandemic

Company says it will focus on the regions as buyers seek more outside space

https://www.ft.com/content/17a32f3a-8b4c-45fa-8f2a-486dd8f7ee9a

UK housebuilder Redrow is pulling back from London as the coronavirus pandemic generates higher demand for larger homes and gardens that are cheaper outside the UK capital.

The company, which built more than 6,000 homes last year, said in a statement on Tuesday that the cost of scaling back its operations in London would hit full-year profits.

The volume of searches for suburban and rural homes has jumped during the lockdown, according to property portal Zoopla, with the rebound in agreed sales strongest outside major cities.

 

Of course, if people are looking to leave London that does create a problem of selling those houses ....

 

[Wight Flight]

Wonder what Berkeley homes will do with the sad demise of Tony Pidgley?

[MrPin]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Of course, if people are looking to leave London that does create a problem of selling those houses ....

It's like watching a rotting elephant carcass, but if you type DECAY into a paticular number you give £3 a month, and adopt the carcass. It's really a charity for flies.

Edited June 30, 2020 by MrPin

[spygirl]

9 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Wonder what Berkeley homes will do with the sad demise of Tony Pidgley?

 

I reckon you could get a shower and kitchenette in that.

 

[Harley]

On 30/06/2020 at 14:11, spygirl said:

Of course, if people are looking to leave London that does create a problem of selling those houses ....

Talking of Hong Kong.......

[spygirl]

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Talking of Hong Kong.......

Not really.

The HKers rely on the funnel of money in n out of China. And a v bent property market.

HKers would be enviable migrants to have esp. compared to the scum we usually get.

 

[Ash4781b]

On 30/06/2020 at 14:11, spygirl said:

UK homebuilder Redrow retreats from London after pandemic

Company says it will focus on the regions as buyers seek more outside space

https://www.ft.com/content/17a32f3a-8b4c-45fa-8f2a-486dd8f7ee9a

UK housebuilder Redrow is pulling back from London as the coronavirus pandemic generates higher demand for larger homes and gardens that are cheaper outside the UK capital.

The company, which built more than 6,000 homes last year, said in a statement on Tuesday that the cost of scaling back its operations in London would hit full-year profits.

The volume of searches for suburban and rural homes has jumped during the lockdown, according to property portal Zoopla, with the rebound in agreed sales strongest outside major cities.

 

Of course, if people are looking to leave London that does create a problem of selling those houses ....

 

“The company, which built more than 6,000 homes last year,...,”

I’m sure that it is technically correct but they must have built many many more than 6K homes in a year?  I’ve not checked their accounts but if the building that many I expect they have decades of land supply on the balance sheet? Edit: or was that always how housebuilders operated- basically landbanking and trickle our supply)
 

 

Edited July 5, 2020 by Ash4781b

[Option5]

On 30/06/2020 at 14:11, spygirl said:

The company, which built more than 6,000 homes last year,

No it didn't, it may have built 6000 houses.

[MrPin]

3 hours ago, Option5 said:

No it didn't, it may have built 6000 houses.

More like flats, I would guess.

[spygirl]

Coronavirus: How will London's economy look after lockdown?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-53247987?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story

Blah blah blah blah.

Good this, bad that etc etc.

 

But Mark Kleinman, professor of public policy at King's College London, thinks the city itself will weather the storm.

"Cities are very complex things. London does have a lot of assets in terms of its brand and the reputation of its institutions means it's still seen as a successful, global city," he explains.

Mr Brown believes something similar. "After 9/11 there were people saying that no-one will go to cities anymore," he said.

"I know people after 7/7 who said they'd never take the Tube but a few years later they did. So people do revert. I think London will be relatively resilient."

Mr Kleinman points to the rapid way that London changes. How just 60 years ago, if you stood by the Thames in east London, you would hear the voices of dockers, the industrial whirr of cranes and the unloading of cargo from across the world.

"It used to be a manufacturing and goods city, it had the largest docks in the world. And over a relatively short period it's changed from a successful manufacturing city, to a successful services-based city. So cities do adapt," he said.

Absolutely no mention in that article about the level of leverage and debt in London.

No mention that service based industries are very exposed to automation, more so that manufacturing.

Even a small dip in money economic activity will see the fallout amplified by the level of debt in London.

Having people with IO mortgages at 15 x income is a route to disaster.

 

 

 

[gibbon]

On 31/05/2020 at 12:18, spygirl said:

That was the theory.

Anyone trying that 88-96 came unstuck.

Since early 2000s more n more people working in London have been forced into extortionate rentals.

90% of under 45s are renting, so have zilch equity.

The poor sods whove 'bought' have HTB, so are fucked.

The people who are going to suffer from io btl includes OO who are going to have to sell at very low prices as the  nice family have zilch equity to trade.

UK housing has been a  clusterfuck since 2001ish. The chickens are slowly starting to roost.

 

No they aren't. BTL have been what, 80%-90% of all mortgages since 2008? This isn't going to stop while we're importing millions of Africans/ME'ers every 2 or so years. Everything is going exactly as planned, where ever property gets sub-divided and we're all living in pod stacked on top of each other worth £1 million each. 

I've seen it first hand where I live, shitty rabbit hutch £500k flats built in a down at heel area with tramps and druggies right outside your front door. Fuck all is coming home to roost, it's just going to get worse and worse until we live in a Bladerunner type world.

[spygirl]

11 minutes ago, gibbon said:

No they aren't. BTL have been what, 80%-90% of all mortgages since 2008? This isn't going to stop while we're importing millions of Africans/ME'ers every 2 or so years. Everything is going exactly as planned, where ever property gets sub-divided and we're all living in pod stacked on top of each other worth £1 million each. 

I've seen it first hand where I live, shitty rabbit hutch £500k flats built in a down at heel area with tramps and druggies right outside your front door. Fuck all is coming home to roost, it's just going to get worse and worse until we live in a Bladerunner type world.

I think BTL has been 30%-40% of mortgages since 2005ish.

The issue with renting to migrants is the LL needs to verify the person has legal right to remain.

That's clobbered the migrant market.

[gibbon]

17 hours ago, spygirl said:

I think BTL has been 30%-40% of mortgages since 2005ish.

The issue with renting to migrants is the LL needs to verify the person has legal right to remain.

That's clobbered the migrant market.

This graph suggests otherwise. 

Clobbered the migrant market? What world you living in? I don't see any migrants living under fucking bridges round here, that luxury is reserved for natives.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, gibbon said:

This graph suggests otherwise. 

Clobbered the migrant market? What world you living in? I don't see any migrants living under fucking bridges round here, that luxury is reserved for natives.

BTL figures are murky. A lot of BTL are not declared as such as the bank did not care. They do care now.

UK private rent sector is now almost 20% of households.

PRS barely registered pre 2000 sub 10%  - this is private rental, no social rental.

There are some town where the majority of the hoses sold have been to BTL.

Mboro, most county Durham, Darlo etc etc.

 

 

 

[sarahbell]

17 hours ago, spygirl said:

I think BTL has been 30%-40% of mortgages since 2005ish.

The issue with renting to migrants is the LL needs to verify the person has legal right to remain.

That's clobbered the migrant market.

ANYONE.
You have to establish the right to remain in all tenants, not just the brown ones.

 

[spygirl]

11 minutes ago, gibbon said:

This graph suggests otherwise. 

Clobbered the migrant market? What world you living in? I don't see any migrants living under fucking bridges round here, that luxury is reserved for natives.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/11/13/1542085201000/The-impending-buy-to-let-boom/

Comments:

 

The above graph “housing occupier status” is per property. Per household 40% are in private rental and 10% in subsidised rental. And of course we are expected to assume that the mortgaged owner occupiers are not secret BTL, the scale of which was exposed in Newham where they piloted a registration scheme in which either the tenant or landlord could register the property. Newham found 1/2 of the BTL properties they managed to register were mortgaged as owner occupier and unknown to HMRC.

Newham is one the first few councils to actually properly look into BTL/private rental sector.

Forced to, as the place was turning iinto an even bigger shithole, with hordes of foriegn  kids turning up for school they did not know about .

HMRC *do* know - or have a good idea of BTL - they have access to all the data.

The LA less so.

[eight]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

There are some town where the majority of the hoses sold have been to BTL.

Mboro, most county Durham, Darlo etc etc.

 

 

 

Whoo Darlo!!

[ashestoashes]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

There are some town where the majority of the hoses sold have been to BTL.

Mboro, most county Durham, Darlo etc etc.

 

good hose intel, maybe workers at car washes and the like 

[spygirl]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8512475/How-Britain-office-Employers-grapple-PMs-plea-workers-return.html

Not sure what he wants.

Most people I work with have been working harder, just at home.

In ye olde days employees used to be the biggest expense. Now, for a lot of small orgs, even though the staff are very well paid, the LL is even better paid.

One small company which had a Soho office said they would not be returning so they could save money  

First time I came across this was in the 2000 techfall out. Someone I used to work with was telling me how they all looked at the running cost and found out that the office space was costing more. Faced with having all their efforts leached for tye LL they all left.

A lot of this is like having someone yell Fire! then being surprised at the outcome.

 

Empty offices are killing our town centres, warns Boris Johnson: PM orders British workers to return to their desks to help save the economy as homeworking wreaks havoc on nation's finances

You just cant have real estate sucking more n more, then act surprised when Amazon kicks in or people draw line under long work days and commutes.

[spygirl]

Sort by most popular.

Theres an idiot on there the editor1.

Sounds like a cretin LL from TOS.

the editor1, Southampton, Spain, 53 minutes ago

Don't be a Pratt it's not just coffee shops, it's the fabric of the country that will suffer and the finance for your pension from the finance houses that own the empty premises. I've already got my pensions HaHa!

the editor1, Southampton, Spain, 40 minutes ago

I've read some rubbish in my life but your parody takes the biscuit, does your mental capacity understand how our economy works? You will end up paying for the resurrection of our economy, one way or another, when the finance houses balance their books on empty property and look at the pension funds that are being funded a new balance will be made, your pension will not go up. When the leftie or the rightie local authorities have to balance their books watch their charges escalate. Get real stop being so self. Your typical new age. You will pay in the end.

the editor1, Southampton, Spain, 40 minutes ago

I've read some rubbish in my life but your parody takes the biscuit, does your mental capacity understand how our economy works? You will end up paying for the resurrection of our economy, one way or another, when the finance houses balance their books on empty property and look at the pension funds that are being funded a new balance will be made, your pension will not go up. When the leftie or the rightie local authorities have to balance their books watch their charges escalate. Get real stop being so self. Your typical new age. You will pay in the end.

the editor1, Southampton, Spain, 35 minutes ago

Yes but you will pay the price for empty commercial premises, they are generally owned by companies that will pay your REDUCED pensions.

Few people under 50 will have a much exposure to commercial property, which is mainly held by LifeCos paying out to existing pensioners.

A lot richer older people pour loads into commercial property.

As far as councils. Great time to shitcan a lit of them rather prop up the whole public sector/real state Ponzi.

[spygirl]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8516723/Big-firms-no-rush-return-headquarters-biggest-employers-planning-40-back.html

And MP Andrew Bridgen, a businessman himself, told the MailOnline there was no plan B to bringing people back into work.

He agreed workers not coming back into offices would spell problems for others, like cafes and restaurants, who rely on their footfall.

Mr Bridgen added: 'The alternative to companies bringing people back in is bankruptcy and bankruptcy of others that rely on them.

'These are very strange decisions for company directors to take.

'Quite apart from that, if companies don't bring people back, they risk other people coming in filling gaps they have left.'

Moron.

Most office based people I work are all keeping headcount in offices as low as possible.

They risk bankruptcy sending people in.

Most, due to the work I do, are doing OK.

Some people are OK, some people are a bit grumpy/missing the office.

Why in fuck do you want to send people to an office, just so some EErs on ta credits at pret or the sandwich shops does not go bust?

 

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8516723/Big-firms-no-rush-return-headquarters-biggest-employers-planning-40-back.html

And MP Andrew Bridgen, a businessman himself, told the MailOnline there was no plan B to bringing people back into work.

He agreed workers not coming back into offices would spell problems for others, like cafes and restaurants, who rely on their footfall.

Mr Bridgen added: 'The alternative to companies bringing people back in is bankruptcy and bankruptcy of others that rely on them.

'These are very strange decisions for company directors to take.

'Quite apart from that, if companies don't bring people back, they risk other people coming in filling gaps they have left.'

Moron.

Most office based people I work are all keeping headcount in offices as low as possible.

They risk bankruptcy sending people in.

Most, due to the work I do, are doing OK.

Some people are OK, some people are a bit grumpy/missing the office.

Why in fuck do you want to send people to an office, just so some EErs on ta credits at pret or the sandwich shops does not go bust?

If you are running a big office based business you now have to space people out which increases you cost per sq/m.

Plus if one of the filthy plebs you employ brings a dose into the office you run the risk of the place being shut-down.

Big part of being in business is managing risk (HMRC love business risk) and any director who doesn't is not doing their job.

So on balance it is more profitable and less risky if you can keep as many people away from your non-retail premises as possible.

Fuck the cafés/restaurants they are further down the food chain and in real terms feed on scraps of cash.

[eight]

20 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

Why in fuck do you want to send people to an office, just so some EErs on ta credits at pret or the sandwich shops does not go bust?

 

Because the service sector is bigger than the "real" economy that it supposedly piggybacks.

[eek]

1 hour ago, eight said:

Because the service sector is bigger than the "real" economy that it supposedly piggybacks.

was bigger - it won't be going forward...

[spygirl]

More if same.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8525589/The-Bare-Mile-City-London-firms-say-15-workers-return.html

I its not Brits mortgaged beyond the extreme, its migrants whooping it on HB.