Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

 

4 more weeks? I suppose I can work with that

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

4 more weeks? I suppose I can work with that

Trust the plan.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Trust the plan.

I'm going to need a bigger diary 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm going to need a bigger diary 

Write smaller. Win win

[Virgil Caine]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Panto season in the US coming early this year.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

Panto season in the US coming early this year.

I've overbought popcorn. Never mind. bring it on. I'm personally looking forward to the 11th May. My understanding is  that the BoE will increase interest rates. 

[CannonFodder]

15 minutes ago, Virgil Caine said:

Panto season in the US coming early this year.

Oh no its not

[wherebee]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

Very interesting and perhaps not so random - Instead, is that story in fact more evidence of the 'quiet quiter' revolution?

Moreover, In regard to the 'quiet quiters'  I wonder how those people occupy themselves after retirement, and have the time to notice how all around them, plus the time to think long and hard, upon how their country is going down the tubes?     

...Maybe not a topic for this thread but definitely something to ponder, eg what might happen to swathes of disaffected middle-aged/older men with resources and lots of time on their hands - this is a new phenomena, we've had unemployed feckless youth before, but this i think is something very different.

The other big difference is in almost all previous generations those 40-60 year old men had children, or grandchildren, to focus on for the future.

The childless generations are coming through now.  Beginning to recognise that they are mortal - they will die.  Beginning to realise how fucked their lives are, because of politicians.  Nothing so dangerous as a white guy with a grudge and nothing to lose.

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

A few none basement more normie investing YouTube channels I watch occasionally have been big on buying Reits over the past few months....

I was talking with a frined today with a trading background and he was saying how it lawyas surprised him hwo teh dip buyers come out and btfd,even when it's obvious that the industry is in serious turmoil.

I was one of them once.Scottish Play.Prime example.You get value trapped in and then lose for years.

[Froggy2000]

10 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Dunno they seem to be doubling down leaving us at the mercy of imports. The worry one for me is food production. They already talking about co2 impact. Maybe shut down loads of food production (turn into houses?) then be at mercy of just in time imports and global markets. As the likes of Tesco run the supply chain just end up then shrugging shoulders sorry no xyz food ?

Food production has already been hit hard by rules on pesticides, cost of fertiliser etc. Add in rewilding, more farmland built on for houses, renewables etc. Someone else further up the thread posted a clip from a farmer discussing finances and planting decisions. I can see a lot of farmers deciding not to plant anything and just let the land rest/collect subisidies since its not worth the financial risk at current prices. So soon we could have low supply in a market with inelastic supply and food prices explode soon after.

On the other we have all the freaks pushing a vegan diet. I would say perhaps this is all a grand conspiracy but as others have pointed out they are far too stupid for that.

[sancho panza]

Labour committed to making sure old people freeze for the sake of their council comrades final salary pension scheme.

I genuinely fear a corrupt Tory govt but Labour seem intent on committiing economci suicide by driving away the only businesses that actually pay any tax.not only that,at the same time they're driving out the only companies that give us a chance of energy security.

I find it incredulous that Labour can't see the consequnces of what they're planning.I mena if they want to windfall tax anyone tey should be windfalling Big Pharma for how much they've made during the coof,yet somehow,theyre' only taxed at 25%.Not 75% which is what the North Sea producers already pay.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/labour-calls-energy-firms-pay-213044746.html

Energy companies are making £60m in profits a day from operations in the North Sea and should be paying more in tax to fund a freeze on council tax for cash-strapped households, according to Labour.

Labour’s call comes before the latest financial updates from Shell and BP this week. The energy companies are expected to report more bumper profits to the London market due to the spike in prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

UK-headquartered Shell made $40bn (£32bn) in profits last year, one of the largest in British corporate history and the best performance in its 115-year history, while BP more than doubled annual profits to $28bn.

Other energy companies including Centrica, the owner of British Gas, also posted record profits last year.

Labour estimates that the largest energy companies have already booked £7bn in profits so far this year – the equivalent of about £60m a day – from North Sea operations.

Ed Miliband, the shadow climate change and net zero secretary, said: “While families face the crunch from soaring bills, these new figures confirm yet again that the Conservatives are refusing to do the fair and right thing and bring in a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to help freeze council tax this year.

“That’s the choice Labour would make ahead of these local elections, because we are on the side of working people.”

Prime minister Rishi Sunak originally introduced a 25% energy profits levy, more commonly known as a “windfall tax”, which was meant to run until the end of 2025 when he was chancellor. In January, the windfall tax was increased to 35% and will run until March 2028.

Harbour Energy, the North Sea’s biggest producer, has claimed that the tax “all but wiped out” its profits last year. Oil and gas firms operating in the North Sea also pay 30% corporation tax on their profits and a supplementary 10% rate on top of that. Other firms currently pay corporation tax at 25%.

Labour has criticised the windfall tax scheme because it applies to profits made from extracting UK oil and gas but not from other activities, such as refining oil and selling petrol and diesel on forecourts. It also lets firms claim tax savings worth 91p of every £1 invested in fossil fuel extraction in the UK.

Labour said the tax relief should be scrapped to implement a “proper” windfall tax.

Shell initially said it did not expect to pay any windfall tax for 2022 as its North Sea investments meant it was not considered to have made any UK profits.

However, the company subsequently announced that it would pay $134m (£108m) for 2022, and expected to pay more than $500m (£400m) for 2023. BP said it would pay $700m (£583m) in windfall tax for 2022.

Europe, which uses a different method to tax windfalls under its “solidarity contribution” scheme, raised the larger sum of $520m in EU payments last year.

The government says that tax receipts from companies operating in the North Sea will be £11bn in 2022-2023. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has said that the windfall tax will raise £40bn over six years

 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Yeah, before my boat sank my friend had a lot of silver they bought with no VAT. Switched to buying brits and paying a premium so they could avoid CGT in future. Rishi sorted that out though.
Probably just sell in the countries they bought from, with the odd set posted to atkinsons or dropped into chards.

What did he do?

[wherebee]

Australian Labor gvt just announced massive crackdown on Vapes, especially the unregulated ones.  The newspapers are saying it will hit big tobacco and small importers.

Me, I just see more profit for BAT as large companies can work with regulations, small players can't afford the overheads to get it right.

[Jay]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Australian Labor gvt just announced massive crackdown on Vapes, especially the unregulated ones.  The newspapers are saying it will hit big tobacco and small importers.

Me, I just see more profit for BAT as large companies can work with regulations, small players can't afford the overheads to get it right.

Also the Aussie rba doing a surprise quarter point rate hike…hinting at more to come..

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, Jay said:

Also the Aussie rba doing a surprise quarter point rate hike…hinting at more to come..

I got told last month by two people who work for aussie banks that inflation was beaten and no more rate hikes.  That I was doomongering.

 

AHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHH

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Labour committed to making sure old people freeze for the sake of their council comrades final salary pension scheme.

I genuinely fear a corrupt Tory govt but Labour seem intent on committiing economci suicide by driving away the only businesses that actually pay any tax.not only that,at the same time they're driving out the only companies that give us a chance of energy security.

I find it incredulous that Labour can't see the consequnces of what they're planning.I mena if they want to windfall tax anyone tey should be windfalling Big Pharma for how much they've made during the coof,yet somehow,theyre' only taxed at 25%.Not 75% which is what the North Sea producers already pay.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/labour-calls-energy-firms-pay-213044746.html

Energy companies are making £60m in profits a day from operations in the North Sea and should be paying more in tax to fund a freeze on council tax for cash-strapped households, according to Labour.

Labour’s call comes before the latest financial updates from Shell and BP this week. The energy companies are expected to report more bumper profits to the London market due to the spike in prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

UK-headquartered Shell made $40bn (£32bn) in profits last year, one of the largest in British corporate history and the best performance in its 115-year history, while BP more than doubled annual profits to $28bn.

Other energy companies including Centrica, the owner of British Gas, also posted record profits last year.

Labour estimates that the largest energy companies have already booked £7bn in profits so far this year – the equivalent of about £60m a day – from North Sea operations.

Ed Miliband, the shadow climate change and net zero secretary, said: “While families face the crunch from soaring bills, these new figures confirm yet again that the Conservatives are refusing to do the fair and right thing and bring in a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to help freeze council tax this year.

“That’s the choice Labour would make ahead of these local elections, because we are on the side of working people.”

Prime minister Rishi Sunak originally introduced a 25% energy profits levy, more commonly known as a “windfall tax”, which was meant to run until the end of 2025 when he was chancellor. In January, the windfall tax was increased to 35% and will run until March 2028.

Harbour Energy, the North Sea’s biggest producer, has claimed that the tax “all but wiped out” its profits last year. Oil and gas firms operating in the North Sea also pay 30% corporation tax on their profits and a supplementary 10% rate on top of that. Other firms currently pay corporation tax at 25%.

Labour has criticised the windfall tax scheme because it applies to profits made from extracting UK oil and gas but not from other activities, such as refining oil and selling petrol and diesel on forecourts. It also lets firms claim tax savings worth 91p of every £1 invested in fossil fuel extraction in the UK.

Labour said the tax relief should be scrapped to implement a “proper” windfall tax.

Shell initially said it did not expect to pay any windfall tax for 2022 as its North Sea investments meant it was not considered to have made any UK profits.

However, the company subsequently announced that it would pay $134m (£108m) for 2022, and expected to pay more than $500m (£400m) for 2023. BP said it would pay $700m (£583m) in windfall tax for 2022.

Europe, which uses a different method to tax windfalls under its “solidarity contribution” scheme, raised the larger sum of $520m in EU payments last year.

The government says that tax receipts from companies operating in the North Sea will be £11bn in 2022-2023. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has said that the windfall tax will raise £40bn over six years

 

This is all what im most scared of when i look at the roadmap.Iv got it at 54% direct takers now,thats simply taking almost all income from the state,its even worse if you include those and ones who gets some income from the state etc.My roadmap shows the takers speed up once it gets to this point,then slows at around 60%,but at the levels we are already where collapse is 100% certain,the only difference is when.It seems the polos are simply going for the way that takes the longest,and thats the one where they take all assets.The reason is the inflation route through QE is closed mostly due to said inflation.The general tax route will be expanded and fiscal drag will be used to take assets.

Whats causing most of the pain and our destruction here is the fact the ones making policy and the civil service etc are all inflation protected,they suffer nothing from higher prices.So you have leftie civil servants with massive inflation linked pensions who think i must leave me kids a low carbon world.Its a death spiral.They will of course double the pain on workers as they will sub the bennies as the energy bills keep increasing.

The Tories and Labour are now direct enemies of ordinary workers and savers outside of that inflation protection.

Under the surface the UK now has the same conditions as were there that started the American Civil War.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Australian Labor gvt just announced massive crackdown on Vapes, especially the unregulated ones.  The newspapers are saying it will hit big tobacco and small importers.

Me, I just see more profit for BAT as large companies can work with regulations, small players can't afford the overheads to get it right.

Big baccy will push for legislation behind the scenes to kill off the small guys like you say.Its how they have always operated.Thats why a few companies who only put together paper,filter and baccy make tens of billions profit.

Edited May 2, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[belfastchild]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

What did he do?

Dropped CGT allowance so the plan of dropping up to 10k of non-cgt silver first before touching the cgt free stuff was kicked into touch when he is dropping it to 3k.
Roughly a 3:1 ratio of non-cgt to cgt exempt before the boat accident. Hit a limit for silver then started collecting sovereigns.
Of course the CGT thing only applies in the UK. Trains to Dublin and booze cruises from Holyhead may become very popular in the future.

[ashestoashes]

BP down 4% on reduced share buyback, buying opportunity ?

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Dropped CGT allowance so the plan of dropping up to 10k of non-cgt silver first before touching the cgt free stuff was kicked into touch when he is dropping it to 3k.
Roughly a 3:1 ratio of non-cgt to cgt exempt before the boat accident. Hit a limit for silver then started collecting sovereigns.
Of course the CGT thing only applies in the UK. Trains to Dublin and booze cruises from Holyhead may become very popular in the future.

If you use the Gold/Silver ratio you wouldn't necessarily be booking large profits on Silver.

Just slowly sell it down and buy Sovereigns or put the profits in an ISA.

I sold a fair bit over the weekend for a profit of around £550, however most of that Silver was bought when the ratio was around 90 or above, I didn't make a vast profit but I was able to buy a bit more Gold as the ratio is under 80.

Once the ratio gets under 50, I doubt selling 50 ounces of Silver to buy and ounce of Gold will show much of a paper profit for CGT purposes.

I rarely buy CGT exempt Silver as it's only useful if we have total moonshot, VAT and massive premiums make it unattractive.

 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

the plan of dropping up to 10k of non-cgt silver first before touching the cgt free stuff was kicked into touch when he is dropping it to 3k

That was exactly my plan too. I bought maple leafs

[marceau]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is all what im most scared of when i look at the roadmap.Iv got it at 54% direct takers now,thats simply taking almost all income from the state,its even worse if you include those and ones who gets some income from the state etc.My roadmap shows the takers speed up once it gets to this point,then slows at around 60%,but at the levels we are already where collapse is 100% certain,the only difference is when.It seems the polos are simply going for the way that takes the longest,and thats the one where they take all assets.The reason is the inflation route through QE is closed mostly due to said inflation.The general tax route will be expanded and fiscal drag will be used to take assets.

Whats causing most of the pain and our destruction here is the fact the ones making policy and the civil service etc are all inflation protected,they suffer nothing from higher prices.So you have leftie civil servants with massive inflation linked pensions who think i must leave me kids a low carbon world.Its a death spiral.They will of course double the pain on workers as they will sub the bennies as the energy bills keep increasing.

The Tories and Labour are now direct enemies of ordinary workers and savers outside of that inflation protection.

Under the surface the UK now has the same conditions as were there that started the American Civil War.

They may be inflation protected, but they aren't tax exempt. Inflation will see them losing increasingly large real-terms chunks of their newfound wealth to HMRC. I doubt that'll be enough to make them change course though - all that matters to these retards is that numbers go UP. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by marceau

[CannonFodder]

Found this though realise all charts are make believe.

should be a good proxy for sentiment