Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Plan-b]

Euro 4/5 emissions standards are plenty good enough for the environment and quality of life. Anything more is price gouging, profiteering, and over the top and not needed it's just look at me how green my (soon to be dead) city is.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, No One said:

The age of the OIL IS OVER

Not all oil.

[Chewing Grass]

20 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

software, finance, money, banking

In reality, software, finance, money and banking doesn't need a city anymore as it will sit on a fluffy digital cloud in nowhere land.

Cities are now an unaffordable, unsustainable mess full of the very people who will destroy them once the infrastructure really starts to creak.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

In reality, software, finance, money and banking doesn't need a city anymore as it will sit on a fluffy digital cloud in nowhere land.

Cities are now an unaffordable, unsustainable mess full of the very people who will destroy them once the infrastructure really starts to creak.

I suppose you would need to concentrate the servers in one place to make it efficient, but the 'traditional' city requirements like water, suitable land, climate etc can be over-looked a lot more.  You just need a big building with some comms links and a substation 

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

What a lot of people running this country and  'Tech' type people don't seem to understand is that none of their bullshit matters. There is a whole army of hard working highly skilled people who need to get around by driving tens of thousands of miles a year.

Without all of this complexity working together there would be No Electricity, No Water, No Sewage disposal, No Food in the shops., and no shops Hospitals or anything else that everybody relies on to stay alive. So forget everything else like software, finance, money, banking, absolutely nothing of the life we all have would exist. Nothing.

This is precisely why I like real world things dug out of the ground over tech usage of said materials.

Bitcoin 100% has to rely on materials. Materials 0% have to rely on Bitcoin.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, No One said:

The age of the OIL IS OVER

Certainly was today on the FTSE...should have sold last week!

[MrXxxx]

18 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Euro 4/5 emissions standards are plenty good enough for the environment and quality of life. Anything more is price gouging, profiteering, and over the top and not needed it's just look at me how green my (soon to be dead) city is.

Its not even about that [healthy environment], if it was the 'fees' [read taxation] would be used to a) improve the infrastructure, and b) to make it free...it's a) about a taxation by stealth, and b) reduce traffic congestion for those 'elite' who can afford to pay,

[Plan-b]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

I suppose you would need to concentrate the servers in one place to make it efficient, but the 'traditional' city requirements like water, suitable land, climate etc can be over-looked a lot more.  You just need a big building with some comms links and a substation 

>80% usage of Telecoms - AWS - servers - clouds is mainly social media, data farming, FB, Meta, Insta, Netflix, many more.. Massive waste of energy and resources ban all that before even considering anything else to do with energy saving. 

[BadAlchemy]

I moved my very frail mother and her few, essential possessions from her house to mine recently. Then set about adapting the house for her special needs... tracking down the right aids for her. Transferring her GP, hospital, pharmacy over, colllecting medicines from the old pharmacy while waiting for that to all happen. New chiropodist, new dentist, new optician. Dealing with changes to all her correspondences. Getting her settled in...going out to get the extra food needed, the particular crisps and hot cross buns she likes for example. Extra bedding, what have you. All done as quickly and smoothly as possible so as not to upset her. Then begins the work at the old house; clearing stuff out, bringing over the things to be kept... heirlooms, memories etc from 65 years of life in that one house.

(I never had children but imagine having a new baby would present similar challenges.)

Anyway, I thought about @F150 a couple of times while doing all this... I thought about what a complete and utter knob head he/she is.

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by BadAlchemy

[Majorpain]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Powell has a dual mandate unlike the BoE so inflation and josb(think there's a 3rd as well.If he keeps rates heading higher then no end of other banks go to the wall.It's pick you poison time and death by deflation doesnt look like a front runner.

I agree,there's loads of room to fiddle the figures.Now would be the time to bring hosue prices into CPI....imagine what could be achieved?

This in bold, in spades, in terms of the banking system.The 08 bail outs took a banking crisis and turned it into a sovereign debt/currency crisis.

UK banks are in much worse shape thna 08.Either 6% mortgage rates for a year or two and/or 20% down in nominal hosue prices and they're deep in the hole.

Choice between painfully admitting mistakes and fixing the issues in the banking system or just print a load of money and fiddle the inflation figures, printer goes BRRRRRRRRRRR in other words.

 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Majorpain

[No One]

11 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

I moved my very frail mother and her few, essential possessions from her house to mine recently. Then set about adapting the house for her special needs... tracking down the right aids for her. Transferring her GP, hospital, pharmacy over, colllecting medicines from the old pharmacy while waiting for that to all happen. New chiropodist, new dentist, new optician. Dealing with changes to all her correspondences. Getting her settled in...going out to get the extra food needed, the particular crisps and hot cross buns she likes for example. Extra bedding, what have you. All done as quickly and smoothly as possible so as not to upset her. Then begins the work at the old house; clearing stuff out, bringing over the things to be kept... heirlooms, memories etc from 65 years of life in that one house.

(I never had children but imagine having a new baby would present similar challenges.)

Anyway, I thought about @F150 a couple of times while doing all this... I thought about what a complete and utter knob head he/she is.

 

The age of the knob is over

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

Theres plenty more ULEZ crap coming down the pipeline for many areas, not all tradesman want or can afford the latest vehicle so that they can drive to work where the are needed perhaps the Age of the City is Over! Cities will fall apart without constant maintenance and improvement and replacement.

Tradesmen are just going to put their prices up £20 per day for jobs in London. A new van will cost more than the £12.50 per day ULEZ charge. I guess they need to add £2.50 VAT and another £5 to their prices because why not? Buy/lease a new van and you would have to put prices up more than that.

People working salaried jobs that require cars are the ones that will pay most.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Choice between painfully admitting mistakes and fixing the issues in the banking system or just print a load of money and fiddle the inflation figures, printer goes BRRRRRRRRRRR in other words.

 

The eyes!

[JMD]

7 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

They both track MSCI Brazil so will be as good as the same. They're not exactly exactly the same as they may redistribute weighting at different times, eg one has 19% of the fund as VALE S.A and the other 20%. It's only a 1/4%, but still over a number of years adds up to a few nights down the pub for sure.

I can't see why divis would differ when they hold the same shares with the (almost exact) same distribution.

Yes they do both look to have the same holdings/divis so personally I'd opt for the cheaper HSBC one. Both ETFs hold the physical shares, ie they are not synthetic ETFs and which i dislike because of extra risk. 

I'm currently looking into funds or an etf for Brazil small caps. Has anyone know a good fund/etf for this?

Edited March 14, 2023 by JMD

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

As council tax bills land on doormats I am starting to hear a lot of anecdotal chatter. People are not happy. Whether it evolves into a full blown crisis im not sure.

My Ambulance Trust is apparently beginning an overtime ban in the new tax year.Lot of staff do overtime to make ends meet/pay for some nice things in life.The bulk of staff are band 3/4/5 between £22k and £30k.Lot living in flat shares/,some HMO's till they can get a flat share running.There are a fair few staff doing 3 overtimes a month.

I think thigns are really going to bite a lot more people this year as things like this and the council tax/food/fuel rises start kicking in and as people's mortgages move off fixes onto variables.

When I start commenting on how people on bennies are getting 10% I don't get any of the grief or negative comments I would have expected.Lot of people are beginnign to see it as unsutaianble imho

 

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Tradesmen are just going to put their prices up £20 per day for jobs in London. A new van will cost more than the £12.50 per day ULEZ charge. I guess they need to add £2.50 VAT and another £5 to their prices because why not? Buy/lease a new van and you would have to put prices up more than that.

People working salaried jobs that require cars are the ones that will pay most.

I agree,Sadiq and the progressives really haven't thought this through.It's going to be interesting to see how said trades respond to being labelled far right/anti vaxxers etc.

[AWW]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

It's ridiculous just how shit the roads are here in the 'rich' South East, I don't think I've ever seen such general disrepair

Agree, I ordered some new, softer dampers for the car today because the OEM ones are just too firm for the shit roads we have to drive on.

[AWW]

F150 is copping a lot of shit, but he's right. The curtain is coming down on the age of private car ownership. The Ministry of Transport is on record stating that it believes that private vehicle ownership is of the 20th century and would prefer a move towards more flexible, shares, low-carbon personal transport. You can't add tens of millions to the population and maintain the same rate of private car usage on the same decrepit roads. The only options when you're not building new infrastructure is to reduce usage or time shift some of it.

[Inigo]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's difficult driving now.

The Waze app does have some pot hole info but it's usually not too accurate but better than nothing.

There are some big pot-holes now on major roads round here, matter of time till someone dies because of one

I fell in one the other day, couldn't avoid it as car coming the other way, enough to cause me and my passenger to cry out in shock.  Luckily I was in a big 4x4 so there was enough rubber to protect the wheel which didn't break.

In my wife's little electric car with pram wheels, it would definitely have broken a wheel.  The road was closed the next day for emergency repairs (a barrow full of tarmac tipped at the hole).

 

[mcdongle]

Bit of doom and gloom from NZ today.

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/120314/dramatic-slide-house-prices-affecting-both-aucklands-most-expensive-and

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/120331/new-zealands-current-account-deficit-widest-record-2022-forecast-narrow-tourism

Edited March 15, 2023 by mcdongle

[desertorchid]

2 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

I moved my very frail mother and her few, essential possessions from her house to mine recently. Then set about adapting the house for her special needs... tracking down the right aids for her. Transferring her GP, hospital, pharmacy over, colllecting medicines from the old pharmacy while waiting for that to all happen. New chiropodist, new dentist, new optician. Dealing with changes to all her correspondences. Getting her settled in...going out to get the extra food needed, the particular crisps and hot cross buns she likes for example. Extra bedding, what have you. All done as quickly and smoothly as possible so as not to upset her. Then begins the work at the old house; clearing stuff out, bringing over the things to be kept... heirlooms, memories etc from 65 years of life in that one house.

 

 

 

You notice how not one of these things which had an enormous impact on the wellbeing of your mother and support for the family is considered part of the "Economy"

The "Economy" is now our Lord, we will literally sell our souls and say or do anything to appease it yet only really ultimately benefits a few we couldn't give a shit about. We are all truly  insane.

Edited March 15, 2023 by desertorchid

[HousePriceMania]

27 minutes ago, desertorchid said:

You notice how not one of these things which had an enormous impact on the wellbeing of your mother and support for the family is considered part of the "Economy"

The "Economy" is now our Lord, we will literally sell our souls and say or do anything to appease it yet only really ultimately benefits a few we couldn't give a shit about. We are all truly  insane.

Funny you should mention that...

 

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Choice between painfully admitting mistakes and fixing the issues in the banking system or just print a load of money and fiddle the inflation figures, printer goes BRRRRRRRRRRR in other words.

 

Do the maths....

Infinity amount of cash divided by 8 Bn people in the world = infinite amount of cash each !

How much would a loaf of bread cost at that point ? (answer is infinity dollars)

[XswampyX]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Do the maths....

Infinity amount of cash divided by 8 Bn people in the world = infinite amount of cash each !

How much would a loaf of bread cost at that point ? (answer is infinity dollars)

That's not how it 'works'. You have infinity dollars for the top 1% and the other 99% get what the 1% decide to spend.

Doh! 

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

That's not how it 'works'. You have infinity dollars for the top 1% and the other 99% get what the 1% decide to spend.

Doh! 

Evidently, you are correct

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, mcdongle said:

Bit of doom and gloom from NZ today.

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/120314/dramatic-slide-house-prices-affecting-both-aucklands-most-expensive-and

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/120331/new-zealands-current-account-deficit-widest-record-2022-forecast-narrow-tourism

The house price report must of upset someone as its been removed