Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[moneyscam]

Here's a good deep dive into the consolidated balance sheet of US banking sector. Running time 46 min.

TLDR : US banking system on a consolidated basis is insolvent based on end of Q3 2022 FDIC numbers. Since then the situation has arguably gotten worse and this time the FED isn't helping but making things worse. FED will be forced to do something big.

Never heard of this guy before but after watching it I found it hard to argue against his case backed up by the numbers he shows.

 

[DurhamBorn]

@spygirl that will take in all those 16 hour a week Sharons.Its starting.They know systemic collapse is coming.This will be just the start.

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/budget-to-encourage-over50s-disabled-and-benefits-claimants-back-into-work-b2298907.html

 

– An increase in the threshold of a universal credit claimant’s earnings under which they must meet regularly with a work coach from an equivalent of 15 to 18 hours a week. Partners of working people will also be forced to seek a job.

[Long time lurking]

With the caveat it`s coming from a gold bug/mining sponsor

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Long time lurking

[spygirl]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@spygirl that will take in all those 16 hour a week Sharons.Its starting.They know systemic collapse is coming.This will be just the start.

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/budget-to-encourage-over50s-disabled-and-benefits-claimants-back-into-work-b2298907.html

 

– An increase in the threshold of a universal credit claimant’s earnings under which they must meet regularly with a work coach from an equivalent of 15 to 18 hours a week. Partners of working people will also be forced to seek a job.

Did look on mumsnet

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4541580-single-parent-tax-credits-ending-soon-and-need-advice-please

 

worriedaboutmoney2022 · 02/05/2022 09:17

Cutting straight to the point you've worked part time (24 hours) to Milk the tax credits system and now your worries you won't manage??

You need to work full time and earn your own money simple as that

That's the problem with the system it enables people to be lazy

 

[spygirl]

21 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

With the caveat it`s coming from a gold bug/mining sponsor

 

A brics commodity backed currency ....

Yes ... Brazil, Russia India China south Africa, all getting together to operate a currency.

This is crack pipe talking by someone who doesn't grasp the freakishness of $ 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, darkmarket said:

I meant the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, though they seem to have so much in common with Ms Ersapah and her colleagues you'd be hard pressed to tell the difference.

Well I can immediately state that Andrew Bailey and his colleagues all wear a larger dress size!! But I will get back to you on potential points of systemic difference with Ms Ersapah, in particular reference to personages of colour (doubtful) and queerness (highly probable)...!!!

[tank]

7 hours ago, darkmarket said:

It's far from inevitable, but it strikes me that one way the Conservatives could avoid total humiliation in the next General Election is to cut the tax on cigarettes dramatically, bring them well below £5 a pack and grant licences for some pubs to bring back smoking.

As commercial property collapses, small pubs could become more profitable again, and the tax shortfall could be partially recovered with higher drinks taxes to avoid social problems. With Labour hoping to ban tobacco outright, I can't think of a single policy that would distinguish the big two parties better and even help bring together the four corners of the Union.

I know the investment thesis here is based on other considerations, but an end to the wars on smoking and pubs isn't unthinkable in the circumstances.

Rule 1 in British politics as outlined by a man who very few on here would hold in high regard.

Harold Wilson: 'It doesn't matter who's in government, the Treasury is always in power.'

Put simply, only an extremely foolish modern day politician would dare go to war with the Treasury e.g. Truss and Kwarteng. They were quickly replaced by house trained types like Sunak following a manufactured crisis. Wilson tried to curtail the Treasury's power back in the 1960s, but the Whitehall machine cannot be beaten and, ultimately, that's where the true power lies. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by tank

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Pip321 said:

My worry here is the governments promise that the UK will be the next Silicon Valley. Perhaps they were being precise and we just misunderstood what they meant. 

Never mind….what’s the worst that could happen 🤦🏻‍♂️

I don't want to worry you but think you might have something there. Perhaps our government were being obtuse and were alluding to our own Silicon Roundabout (tech city), but with absolutely no off-ramps - a new 'Circle of Hell'...  Briti(sh) Rishi(sh) style!!

[Long time lurking]

40 minutes ago, spygirl said:

A brics commodity backed currency ....

Yes ... Brazil, Russia India China south Africa, all getting together to operate a currency.

This is crack pipe talking by someone who doesn't grasp the freakishness of $ 

Well you have not been paying attention have you 

There are two dozen other countries that have applied to join including ALL the middle east oil suppliers ,Saudi has already said they are willing to consider trading in other currencies India have already started along with China 

You need read this https://thecradle.co/article-view/9135 from last March  and then you need to listen to the whole video rather than just that clip

Then after doing that think about what the war in the Ukraine is really all about 

And by the way the system is all ready up and running SWIFT is becoming less relevant by the month

Edited March 12, 2023 by Long time lurking

[reformed nice guy]

Cross posting from the main thread on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse:

https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/urgent-sign-the-petition-now-thousands-of-startups-and-hundreds-of-thousands-of-startup-jobs-are-at-risk

Claims 10,000 small businesses wont be able to pay suppliers and wages, they are demanding a bailout

[Long time lurking]

5 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Cross posting from the main thread on the Silicon Valley Bank collapse:

https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/urgent-sign-the-petition-now-thousands-of-startups-and-hundreds-of-thousands-of-startup-jobs-are-at-risk

Claims 10,000 small businesses wont be able to pay suppliers and wages, they are demanding a bailout

On the plus side i read most of Hollywood film companies can pay for fuck all 

[Long time lurking]

 

[darkmarket]

40 minutes ago, tank said:

Rule 1 in British politics as outlined by a man who very few on here would hold in high regard.

Harold Wilson: 'It doesn't matter who's in government, the Treasury is always in power.'

The Treasury deserves a lot of weight, and Whitehall usually has the balance of expertise, it's unlikely as I said. Outright bans are coming in other 'liberal' commonwealth members too, that's all a headwind for any investment thesis. Most likely they'll be reasonably happy to hand over power for the next few years anyway.

[spygirl]

6 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Well you have not been paying attention have you 

There are two dozen other countries that have applied to join including ALL the middle east oil suppliers ,Saudi has already said they are willing to consider trading in other currencies India have already started along with China 

You need read this https://thecradle.co/article-view/9135 from last March  and then you need to listen to the whole video rather than just that clip

Then after doing that think about what the war in the Ukraine is really all about 

And by the way the system is all ready up and running SWIFT is becoming less relevant by the month

And *ALL* counties that pursue their own interest, much more than the US does.

You *CANNOT* enter a joint-whatever with China.

China does take any outside instructions on its currency.

Ukraine war was about Putin succession, thats all.

 

 

 

[belfastchild]

10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

You can't help feeling some insiders are trying to force the Feds hand by sowing panic:

 

That was my first thought about the swiftness of it all. If you have tried and tried to get the fed to pivot, what else can you do?

[M S E Refugee]

The West is uninvestable for much of the World.

 

Executives at major banks in Switzerland have warned that the country’s decision to support Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia is having a negative impact on Swiss lenders, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

The unnamed banking officials told the media outlet that rich clientele from China are seriously worried about depositing their money in Swiss banks, after Bern ditched its policy of neutrality by freezing billions in Russian assets as part of sanctions.

In February, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs reported that some $8.1 billion of Russian money was frozen by sanctions. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, reportedly blocked over $19 billion in Russian assets.

“We were not just surprised but shocked that Switzerland abandoned its neutral status,” a board director who oversees Asian operations at his bank told the FT. “I have statistical evidence that literally hundreds of clients that were looking to open accounts are now not.”

The media outlet reportedly spoke with executives from six of Switzerland’s 10 largest lenders about their experience with private clients.

 

“The question of sanctions has come up with clients,” another senior official said. “It was definitely a topic of concern with clients late last year. They were asking whether their money would be safe with us.”

 

The Swiss banking sector is the world’s biggest destination for offshore wealth, boasting a quarter of the global total, and accounts for 10% of the country’s gross domestic product, Anke Reingen, an analyst at RBC, told the newspaper.

 

Switzerland moved against Russian clients too quickly, according to another bank executive, who called for a line to be drawn on what the government should and shouldn’t get involved in.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I think people continue to underestimate how quickly western hegemony is unravelling.

 

The dollar isn't going to be ditched tomorrow but it's quite apparent by now that there is very little fear of the US compared to even a year ago.

 

The people with the commodities are going to be making history now, not the ones who shuffle money around and think you can run an industrial economy on solar panels and windmills. 

[Democorruptcy]

Jezza is on the case

Quote

 

An update from Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Silicon Valley Bank UK

The Bank of England announced on Friday that Silicon Valley Bank UK is set to enter insolvency, following action taken by its parent company in the United States. The Bank of England confirmed in its announcement that Silicon Valley Bank has a limited presence in the UK and does not perform functions critical to the financial system.

The government and the Bank understand the level of concern that this raises for customers of Silicon Valley Bank UK, and especially how it may impact on cashflow positions in the short term.

The UK has a world leading tech sector, with a dynamic start-up and scale-up ecosystem. The government recognises that, given the importance of Silicon Valley Bank to its customers, its failure could have a significant impact on the liquidity of the tech ecosystem.

The government is treating this issue as a high priority, with discussions between the Governor of the Bank of England, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor taking place over the weekend. The government is working at pace on a solution to avoid or minimise damage to some of our most promising companies in the UK and we will bring forward immediate plans to ensure the short term operational and cashflow needs of Silicon Valley Bank UK customers are able to be met.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-update-on-silicon-valley-bank-uk?

 

 

[Long time lurking]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think people continue to underestimate how quickly western hegemony is unravelling.

 

The dollar isn't going to be ditched tomorrow but it's quite apparent by now that there is very little fear of the US compared to even a year ago.

 

The people with the commodities are going to be making history now, not the ones who shuffle money around and think you can run an industrial economy on solar panels and windmills. 

Yep it`s going to all take time but from where i`m sitting we are at a point i thought would take many years but it`s happened in less than twelve months ,then again i think the transition started many years ago but it was well under the radar we could quite literally be in the end game right now 

I seen a info Graphic in the last few days and for the life of me i can`t find it again ,it was shoeing a list of countries with their flags next to them that are no able and willingly and able to transact in Rupees via a frame work completely outside of swift ,i did not take much notice ,but unless there's an Asian/South American country with a very similar flag to Germany ,Germany was one of them   

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

And *ALL* counties that pursue their own interest, much more than the US does.

You *CANNOT* enter a joint-whatever with China.

China does take any outside instructions on its currency.

Ukraine war was about Putin succession, thats all.

 

 

 

They closed down the world for two years prior just because they don`t like Putin ,then sanctioned themselves into oblivion

Some how i don`t buy it 

[spygirl]

50 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The West is uninvestable for much of the World.

 

Executives at major banks in Switzerland have warned that the country’s decision to support Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia is having a negative impact on Swiss lenders, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

The unnamed banking officials told the media outlet that rich clientele from China are seriously worried about depositing their money in Swiss banks, after Bern ditched its policy of neutrality by freezing billions in Russian assets as part of sanctions.

In February, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs reported that some $8.1 billion of Russian money was frozen by sanctions. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, reportedly blocked over $19 billion in Russian assets.

“We were not just surprised but shocked that Switzerland abandoned its neutral status,” a board director who oversees Asian operations at his bank told the FT. “I have statistical evidence that literally hundreds of clients that were looking to open accounts are now not.”

The media outlet reportedly spoke with executives from six of Switzerland’s 10 largest lenders about their experience with private clients.

 

“The question of sanctions has come up with clients,” another senior official said. “It was definitely a topic of concern with clients late last year. They were asking whether their money would be safe with us.”

 

The Swiss banking sector is the world’s biggest destination for offshore wealth, boasting a quarter of the global total, and accounts for 10% of the country’s gross domestic product, Anke Reingen, an analyst at RBC, told the newspaper.

 

Switzerland moved against Russian clients too quickly, according to another bank executive, who called for a line to be drawn on what the government should and shouldn’t get involved in.

 

 

Thats just the daft Swissy banks whove blown themselves up.

You are making the daft assumption that Chinks, Russian, Saudis , Brazilians are like us, ir the US or Germany.

They are not.

They are an uncoordinated cluster fuck of self interest and backstabbing.

Seriously.

 

[Long time lurking]

I`m assuming this is a bank transaction ?

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

I`m assuming this is a bank transaction ?

Assuming its not spin/mischief, there might be a bank holiday.

 

[Errol]

59 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The West is uninvestable for much of the World.

 

Executives at major banks in Switzerland have warned that the country’s decision to support Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia is having a negative impact on Swiss lenders, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

The unnamed banking officials told the media outlet that rich clientele from China are seriously worried about depositing their money in Swiss banks, after Bern ditched its policy of neutrality by freezing billions in Russian assets as part of sanctions.

In February, the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs reported that some $8.1 billion of Russian money was frozen by sanctions. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, reportedly blocked over $19 billion in Russian assets.

“We were not just surprised but shocked that Switzerland abandoned its neutral status,” a board director who oversees Asian operations at his bank told the FT. “I have statistical evidence that literally hundreds of clients that were looking to open accounts are now not.”

The media outlet reportedly spoke with executives from six of Switzerland’s 10 largest lenders about their experience with private clients.

 

“The question of sanctions has come up with clients,” another senior official said. “It was definitely a topic of concern with clients late last year. They were asking whether their money would be safe with us.”

 

The Swiss banking sector is the world’s biggest destination for offshore wealth, boasting a quarter of the global total, and accounts for 10% of the country’s gross domestic product, Anke Reingen, an analyst at RBC, told the newspaper.

 

Switzerland moved against Russian clients too quickly, according to another bank executive, who called for a line to be drawn on what the government should and shouldn’t get involved in.

 

 

Serves the Swiss right. They are getting exactly what they deserve.

[Errol]

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

They are an uncoordinated cluster fuck of self interest and backstabbing.

That is how they might want to be perceived. See Sun Tzu and the Art of War. It is absolutely not in their interests to be too brazen or obvious in carrying out their long term strategies.

Edited March 12, 2023 by Errol