Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[moneyscam]

1 hour ago, Kiwibobby said:

I disagree.  Switzerland, HK, and sing attracted billions in wealth because the rich believed their money was safe.  Safe from other gvts, safe from home country courts, angry ex wives, etc. billions n billions over the years.

now hk fucked it when the CCP made it clear they ruled the streets, with the rule of law becoming the rule of beijing in about 2011-12-13ish.  Money started to leave.  Switzerland fucked it when they rolled over to the US on tax evasion - after 500 years of telling other gvts to fuck off, the swiss caved.  I think that was about 2014-15?  The recent sanctions and now the CS law breaking to keep the globalists happy are the latest flashing light that the rule of law on private money ownership is dead.  I expect the outflows have accelerated.  Singapore is still pretty good, and I would guess their bankers are going to do very well now.

I don't disagree with your points but I wouldn't agree these amount to the repudiation of CHF as a safe haven currency.

Fundamentally the currency reflects the highest current account surplus as a %age of GDP in the world and whilst this inflow remains it will support the currency - this is a function of trade rather than banking. Yes there are financial safe haven flows as well which will diminish due to the points you made but those are insufficient to ultimately outweigh the trade flows in the long term.

Switzerland has had consistently lower interest rates than other G7 economies since GFC yet has outperformed them all, even the mighty dollar. Standard economic theory suggest the lower interest rate currency should weaken against the higher interest rate currency and this is true when everything else is equal. However the reality of trade flows vastly outweigh this differential and for that to change then there has to be a vast structural change in the Swiss economy for that dynamic to alter.

Edited March 21, 2023 by moneyscam

[PatronizingGit]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Don't want to veer too much off topic but briefly I would describe it as a society that protects individual freedoms with a politically weak federal centre and power delegated to cantonal level with the people able to check state power with binding referenda and a strong rule of law.

It, as you have noticed when you have visited, simply just works all together and is balanced appropriately. When needed, as with CS, the central powers that couldn't be handled properly at cantonal level i.e SNB, FINMA step up, do their job quietly and then fade back into the background until needed again. 

It is generally a more mature society and was amongst the most pleasant places I've lived.

 

I also find it interesting to compare two ostensibly very high GDP per capita Countries, Ireland & Switzerland, so show that GDP per capita, once above a certain level, tells us very little indeed about how normal people live. Switzerland is a genuinely wealthy society, whereas Ireland is a society no better off than the UK on average, and, on the face of it, worse off than the UK at the bottom end, with a somewhat lower minimum wage, 

 

 

Ireland GDP per capita: $100,127

Swiss GDP per capita: $91,991

(both stats google)

Ireland Minimum wage: 11.30 eur 

Swiss Min Wage: 24.00 CHF/eur in Geneva. (varies by canton, but can be up to 26)

Geneva to raise its minimum wage in 2023 - The Local

 

Percent of Irish workforce on min wage - 10%, compared to 5% in UK

Just under 10 per cent of Irish workers earn minimum wage, which is below the European average of 10.5 per cent, according to data from the ESRI.

Percentage of Irish workers earning minimum wage below European average, study finds (breakingnews.ie)

 

The Low Pay Commission estimates that there were around 1.6 million workers paid at or below the minimum wage in April 2022, around 5% of all UK workers.

National Minimum Wage Statistics - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

 

Ireland may well be better off than it was 40 years ago. But the notion that an already well off country with a decent industrial base has anything, anything at all to gain from following the 'celtic tiger' route, other than potential huge liabilities when a crash takes place, is bunkem. Ireland is a Potemkin economy, nothing more. Switzerland is the real thing.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I'll just leave this here from LinkedIn.....

That is absolutely amazing.  Where do you even start? 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Loki

[geordie_lurch]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

That is absolutely amazing.  Where do you even start? 

I think you pay him £29 pcm to join his InLiv Community @Loki

Edited March 21, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[Loki]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

I think you pay him £29 pcm to join his InLiv Community @Loki

I'm more interested in his time machine than his investment advice

 

He does own a time machine right?

 

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

That is absolutely amazing.  Where do you even start? 

I know.

My initial reaction was to write a lengthy accompanying post. Then I realised I just needed to put it in the right place and the group of people on here would be thinking exactly the same as me. No additional words required.

[JMD]

Interesting article on offshore oil drilling activity/where that exploration is happening, and the shortage of rigs. Offshore drilling/service companies look a good sector play?... just a pity they don't pay divis!

https://www.westwoodenergy.com/news/westwood-insight/westwood-insight-global-marketed-offshore-rig-utilisation-to-average-95-in-2023

 

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by JMD

[MrXxxx]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm more interested in his time machine than his investment advice

 

He does own a time machine right?

 

Yes, he hired it at the same time as he hired the Lamborghini for his YouTube "You can make millions like me" promotional video.

[Eventually Right]

1 hour ago, Sidd said:

I do, its already down 16% pre market...

 

@kibuc whats your take on this? Cut any losses and sell now?

IKN | First Majestic (FR.to) (AG): The Great Rock’n’Roll Swindle (iknnews.com)

[Majorpain]

5 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

IKN | First Majestic (FR.to) (AG): The Great Rock’n’Roll Swindle (iknnews.com)

First Majestic always seemed way overpriced to me, despite at one stage owning 20 Precious metals stocks i never owned them.  Retail investors who believed the hype are about to/have been fleeced.

They are not the first silver miner to get in trouble by diversifying into Gold mines, the mightiest (and deadest) Panther was another.

[F150]

Gold tanking and DXY

[feed]

6 minutes ago, F150 said:

Gold tanking and DXY

$1950. Wake me up below $1850, so I can go buy some King Charles
 

[Sidd]

1 hour ago, F150 said:

Gold tanking and DXY

I said 10 days straight gains, then i will believe it. It only lasted 2.

Disclosure: I am heavy in the miners.

[Virgil Caine]

3 hours ago, Kiwibobby said:

I disagree.  Switzerland, HK, and sing attracted billions in wealth because the rich believed their money was safe.  Safe from other gvts, safe from home country courts, angry ex wives, etc. billions n billions over the years.

now hk fucked it when the CCP made it clear they ruled the streets, with the rule of law becoming the rule of beijing in about 2011-12-13ish.  Money started to leave.  Switzerland fucked it when they rolled over to the US on tax evasion - after 500 years of telling other gvts to fuck off, the swiss caved.  I think that was about 2014-15?  The recent sanctions and now the CS law breaking to keep the globalists happy are the latest flashing light that the rule of law on private money ownership is dead.  I expect the outflows have accelerated.  Singapore is still pretty good, and I would guess their bankers are going to do very well now.

It is not just the AT1 write down that was a bit murky given CS never went into full bankruptcy resolution. The Swiss government and banking regulator also legislated over the weekend to deny shareholders any vote on the matter. One might say that CS equity holders had no choice but you might have thought UBS shareholders would have been given a vote on any takeover. As one Middle Eastern investor pointed this made a mockery of western claims to respect democracy, legal due process and the right to property. This is just the sort of behaviour that one would expect from a dictatorship. 

[Sidd]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

First Majestic always seemed way overpriced to me, despite at one stage owning 20 Precious metals stocks i never owned them.  Retail investors who believed the hype are about to/have been fleeced.

They are not the first silver miner to get in trouble by diversifying into Gold mines, the mightiest (and deadest) Panther was another.

Sold them at a 20% loss. Will by some telcos instead.

[HousePriceMania]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

So the Swiss government [or the Swiss people] have had the 'courage'/fortitude to do the right thing....I'm not sure if I am projecting a stereotype here, but the Swiss people/nation [and their behaviour] appear to have a societal maturity that supports a stronger [happier?] collective society rather than a weaker individualistic one.....be  interesting to know your viewpoint [or others] @moneyscam as someone who has lived there, rather than just visited like myself.

IIRC, the Swiss people all own guns, something to do with Army/Defence of the country.

 

Lets hope they use them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21379912

 

"All healthy Swiss men aged between 18 and 34 are obliged to do military service and all are issued with assault rifles or pistols which they are supposed to keep at home."

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[ThoughtCriminal]

Think LG may have crafted my favourite ever simile.

He's on fire.

[leonardratso]

for the scouse landlord - the irony of his preamble and then to ask for money (unlike the other grifters who ask for money).

[leonardratso]

uncle terry telling us how right he is.....

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/news/2023/4933-financial-times-why-i-never-invest-in-bank-shares/

Neil woodford was always right wasnt he. Well he must have been since he is still considerably richer than yow and we combined.

[honkydonkey]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

IIRC, the Swiss people all own guns, something to do with Army/Defence of the country.

 

Lets hope they use them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21379912

 

"All healthy Swiss men aged between 18 and 34 are obliged to do military service and all are issued with assault rifles or pistols which they are supposed to keep at home."

 

Since they're not issued bullets unless it's an emergency they just make for heavy whacking implements.

Quote

He shakes out the gun holster. "And we don't get bullets any more," he adds. "The Army doesn't give ammunition now - it's all kept in a central arsenal." This measure was introduced by Switzerland's Federal Council in 2007.

Funnily enough this fact is regularly omitted when mentioning Switzerland's huge gun ownership rates.

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by honkydonkey

[belfastchild]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I'll just leave this here from LinkedIn.....

https://www.youtube.com/@InsideLiverpool

The promo video is brilliant. 2:15 is probably the most liverpool thing Ive heard in ages!

Anyway, fuck that, just ask Robbie Fowler 'We all live in a Robbie Fowler house, a robbie fowler house'

Asking price of 90-100k for 2 beds out near where the new Kirkby North station is going... Bargain...

[leonardratso]

hahaha terrible series of pretty unprofessional youtube videos with big gaps in broadcasting with hardly any views and the open ones hardly any comments, @Loki is absolutely right, its like watching shit 10 years ago, ive seen better videos that are just people throwing eggs at each other.

[HousePriceMania]

I might sell up again...
 

 

[HousePriceMania]

• Grantham advised against betting on US stocks for the short term, and touted emerging markets.

   

[HousePriceMania]

Just went though my SIPP.  What a pile of shite, down 7% in a month, same as the FTSE.

Petrofac and VOD killing me.