Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[leonardratso]

hahaha terrible series of pretty unprofessional youtube videos with big gaps in broadcasting with hardly any views and the open ones hardly any comments, @Loki is absolutely right, its like watching shit 10 years ago, ive seen better videos that are just people throwing eggs at each other.

[HousePriceMania]

I might sell up again...
 

 

[HousePriceMania]

• Grantham advised against betting on US stocks for the short term, and touted emerging markets.

   

[HousePriceMania]

Just went though my SIPP.  What a pile of shite, down 7% in a month, same as the FTSE.

Petrofac and VOD killing me.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just went though my SIPP.  What a pile of shite, down 7% in a month, same as the FTSE.

Petrofac and VOD killing me.

 

Its something I have noticed over the years, whatever you are invested in, funds, ETFs, individual stocks and widely diversified, overall it often performs just like a tracker.

[Chewing Grass]

On 17/03/2023 at 13:45, No One said:

Trump didnt drain the swamp, he got drained by it, and it can be argued he is also swampy. In order to drain a swamp you have to do it from outside and needs to be done completely.

Looks like the Swamp is back for draining.

 

[Boglet]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Looks like the Swamp is back for draining.

 

Fuck me is anyone still listening to or caring about anything this cunt says?

You had your shot, you fucked it big time.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Boglet

[sancho panza]

Just searching around and found this long term holding was near covid lows.Royalty streamer-the old anglo pacific.

fully year results due late march 23,trding update from late jan at bottom.looks as if falls may overdone dyor natch

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just went though my SIPP.  What a pile of shite, down 7% in a month, same as the FTSE.

Petrofac and VOD killing me.

 

I bought Fres and Vod cheap a few weeks ago….if they go anywhere near that price again I will buy more. Volatile market but I think there are short term and long term opportunities out there. 

GJGB dipped but realised I bought at £20 (ish) in Sept so they have a fair way to go before I see red…..and if they do fall back I will quadruple my mining EFTs and Funds. I just think when they go up….I will regret not going in more in the dips.

It’s taken me a year or so but emotionally beginning to appreciate this is a marathon not a sprint. Trading month by month is a nice sideline….and I very much participate. But feeling that when the wheels drop off then it will be the long term purchases that will muscle through and retain my wealth.

Not disagreeing with you though….it feels very jittery at the moment and my trading side is staying very much on the cautious side. 

[Animal Spirits]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just went though my SIPP.  What a pile of shite, down 7% in a month, same as the FTSE.

Petrofac and VOD killing me.

 

Don't be so linear.

[Ma2]

9 hours ago, kibuc said:

if I wanted to hold anything of this size, I'd probably just buy the index - I appreciate SIL & SILJ are unavailable in UK

Note that a uk available silver miner ETF is now available.  I chucked in £100 to check you could actually buy it and it promptly dropped 20% 
GLOBAL X ETF ICAV SILVER MINERS UCITS ETF USD ACC (GBP) (SILG)

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/global-x-silver-miners-ucits-etf-usd-acc

 

 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Ma2

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

I chucked in £100 to check you could actually buy it and it promptly dropped 20% 

Fees ?

[Ma2]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Fees ?

not great but definitely looking at another tranche. At these prices fees would be wiped out if it just returned to what it was a month back 

HL always provide an illustration -

dyor etc  

HOW MUCH MIGHT IT COST?

The following charges are based on an investment of £5,000 
within a Stocks and Shares ISA over 5 yearsassuming 5.00% growth. Change these assumptions 

Investment

£5,000.00

HL charges

£147.49

Investment charges

£178.29

Total charges over 5 years		£325.77
Average annual charge		1.19%
Illustrative 5 year value		£6,014.30
Illustrative 5 year value with no charges applied		£6,381.41

 

Full 5 year detailed breakdown

 

The costs, charges and returns shown are for illustrative purposes only based on the assumptions you have chosen. Please check the costs and charges of your investment and our service before investing. Returns are not guaranteed.

Figures may not add up to the given total due to rounding.

[Loki]

Slightly off topic but @Cattle Prod do you have any thoughts on prices for petrol vs diesel for general road car use?  Thinking of refinery types/capacities, existing 'fixed' diesel use (Ag, construction, logistics) compared to more flexible general road car fuel type choice

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Note that a uk available silver miner ETF is now available.  I chucked in £100 to check you could actually buy it and it promptly dropped 20% 
GLOBAL X ETF ICAV SILVER MINERS UCITS ETF USD ACC (GBP) (SILG)

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/global-x-silver-miners-ucits-etf-usd-acc

 

 

I used to use Global X ETFs regular and they did very well for me over the years.The Uranium one the most,but  others like the Copper miners and the silver miners.The only problem with the silver miner fund is its really a play on Wheaton at something like a third of the fund.Its good to see them available again to UK investors though.I might add the Uranium fund.

[leonardratso]

was that URAX? or something like that, i made a good ton on that i think, especially when some big uranium producer shut down and supply got constricted a few years back. Memory shot these days cant remember much to be honest.

[Ma2]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Fees ?

Sorry @Bobthebuilder I was being a bit slow. I see what you mean now and yes fees contributed certainly but not as much as me buying at the very top ~£12 just before it began it’s descent to £10 

I can console myself with the fact it was just a test as I have seen stuff to buy before on HL and then it says please call us when you actually click ‘deal’!

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Don't want to veer too much off topic but briefly I would describe it as a society that protects individual freedoms with a politically weak federal centre and power delegated to cantonal level with the people able to check state power with binding referenda and a strong rule of law.

It, as you have noticed when you have visited, simply just works all together and is balanced appropriately. When needed, as with CS, the central powers that couldn't be handled properly at cantonal level i.e SNB, FINMA step up, do their job quietly and then fade back into the background until needed again. 

It is generally a more mature society and was amongst the most pleasant places I've lived.

a good friend is married to a swiss lass and she said to me in switzerland the politicians aren't at the top of the power pyrmaid,the people are.

Dont know how true that is in reality but they're politicians appear to be  less overtly corrupt/compromsied compared to some of ours

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

uncle terry telling us how right he is.....

https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/news/2023/4933-financial-times-why-i-never-invest-in-bank-shares/

Neil woodford was always right wasnt he. Well he must have been since he is still considerably richer than yow and we combined.

Uncle Terry does a great explanation of leverage right there.You couldnt accuse him of glossing over the risks in RBS's cough cough NatWests loanbook.

'NatWest has £5 of shareholder’s equity to fund £100 of assets - it has gearing or leverage of 20 times. If 10 per cent of the £52 of loans in every £100 of assets prove to be bad then the whole of the shareholders’ equity is more than wiped out.

Frankly, long before that happens, depositors are likely to spot the problem and panic and cause a run on the bank, as we saw with SVB.'

[sancho panza]

Looks like credit deflation is starting to bed in in US.Prices down yoy and transactions tanking.Regional banks there in for a tought time.

Even with Fed starting to ease off,unemployment could add ot the woes especailly in the non recourse states

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/21/home-prices-drop-year-over-year-first-time-since-housing-bust-1-sales-bounce-from-deep-dismal-to-just-dismal/

Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year for First Time since Housing Bust 1. Sales Bounce from Deep-Dismal to just Dismal

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

was that URAX? or something like that, i made a good ton on that i think, especially when some big uranium producer shut down and supply got constricted a few years back. Memory shot these days cant remember much to be honest.

URA i think was the ticker i had some very big profits over the years.Most of the ETFs were from Steve Kaplan.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

IIRC, the Swiss people all own guns, something to do with Army/Defence of the country.

 

Lets hope they use them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21379912

 

"All healthy Swiss men aged between 18 and 34 are obliged to do military service and all are issued with assault rifles or pistols which they are supposed to keep at home."

 

They still have National Service as well...I have always been anti NS, but I am beginning to wonder whether this is where the UK has now gone wrong, and so increased the destructive woke society that we are now seeing?

[HousePriceMania]

Surprise...

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

12 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its something I have noticed over the years, whatever you are invested in, funds, ETFs, individual stocks and widely diversified, overall it often performs just like a tracker.

Weird isn't it.  I'm heavy in Oil/Gold/Miners/Telecoms, so didnt think it would correlate, to be fair I thought it would be worse

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Surprise...

 

The replies to that tweet are pathetic. Especially from people that have a blue tick for some unknown reason.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[HousePriceMania]

Let's remind ourselves what the fat banker said about bringing down inflation...